Port FC vs Uthai Thani – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model favours Port FC (45%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Port FC face Uthai Thani.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Thai League 1 clash, Regular Season - 15 as Port FC welcome Uthai Thani to PAT Stadium. Kick-off is set for Saturday 26 December 2026 at 11:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Thai League 1 games this season, Port FC have gone 7W 3D 0L from 10 outings — a 2.40 PPG return. Last five: D W W W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 0.50 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.50 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Port FC have played only a handful of Thai League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
At home at PAT Stadium, Port FC have gone 7W 3D 0L this season (10 games, 2.40 PPG). They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at PAT Stadium.
Uthai Thani — All Games: 2W 3D 5L from 10 Thai League 1 fixtures this season — 0.90 PPG. Last five: L D L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Uthai Thani have played only a handful of Thai League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Uthai Thani's away record: 2W 3D 5L from 10 road trips in Thai League 1 this season (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
On current form, Port FC have the edge — a 1.50 PPG advantage (2.40 vs 0.90) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
H2H
The historical ledger comes down firmly in favour of Port FC: 3 wins from 6 previous clashes against 0 for Uthai Thani, with 3 draws across those contests.
The 6 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.5 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 25 Apr 2026, ended 1–0 with Port FC winning.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Port FC and goals. The home side's 3 wins from 6 meetings, combined with an average of 3.5 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
Trading Patterns
Port FC in-play and half-time data (31 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; they lead at the break 52% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 45% of the time.
Uthai Thani in-play and half-time data (31 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 39%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Port FC 42% versus Uthai Thani 61%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Port FC 48% | Uthai Thani 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Port FC 1.59 xG and Uthai Thani 1.22 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Port FC attack 1.153 / defence 0.892 | Uthai Thani attack 1.254 / defence 0.964. League average goals — home 1.430 / away 1.091. Uthai Thani have an above-average attack strength of 1.254 — the away xG of 1.22 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 31 Port FC games / 31 Uthai Thani games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Port FC 45% | Draw 26% | Uthai Thani 29%. Fair-value odds: Port FC 2.22 | Draw 3.85 | Uthai Thani 3.45. Port FC hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.81. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.81 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Port FC as the most likely outcome at 45% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Port FC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.81 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 53% — reasonable confidence, supported by H2H averaging 3.5 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 57% on Yes. This conflicts with form data: Port FC 40% | Uthai Thani 40% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (31 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Port FC vs Uthai Thani | Competition: Thai League 1, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: PAT Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 26 Dec 2026, 11:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Port FC 45% | Draw 26% | Uthai Thani 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% | BTTS 57% | xG Port FC 1.59 / Uthai Thani 1.22 • Poisson strength factors: Port FC attack 1.153 / def 0.892 | Uthai Thani attack 1.254 / def 0.964 | league avg home 1.430 / away 1.091 • Poisson stance: Port FC (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.59
Port FC xG
Expected Goals
1.22
Uthai Thani xG
57%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Port FC vs Uthai Thani kick off?
Port FC vs Uthai Thani is scheduled to kick off at 11:00 on Saturday 26 December 2026 at PAT Stadium.
Where is Port FC vs Uthai Thani being played?
The match is being played at PAT Stadium.
What competition is Port FC vs Uthai Thani part of?
Port FC vs Uthai Thani is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the Thai League 1 (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Port FC vs Uthai Thani?
Our statistical model gives Port FC a 45% chance of winning, Uthai Thani a 29% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Port FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Port FC vs Uthai Thani?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Port FC and Uthai Thani will score (BTTS).
Will Port FC vs Uthai Thani have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%.
What is the head-to-head record between Port FC and Uthai Thani?
Record (6 meetings): Port FC 3W | Draws 3 | Uthai Thani 0W.
What form are Port FC and Uthai Thani in?
Port FC (all comps): 7W-3D-0L in 10 | 2.40 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 0.50 | L5 D-W-W-W-W. Uthai Thani (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-D-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Port FC's attacking strength (1.15x league average) is weighed against Uthai Thani's defensive record (0.96x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.59. The same calculation in reverse, Uthai Thani's attack versus Port FC's defence, projects 1.22 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (31/31 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.2%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.3%), 1-0 (8.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Port FC Win
45%
2.20
26%
3.86
29%
3.48
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.6%
Home win
2 – 1
9.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.59
Port FC xG
Total xG
2.81
1.22
Uthai Thani xG
2.20
45%
Home win
3.86
26%
Draw
3.48
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.77
43%
BTTS No
2.31
Clean Sheet
30%
3.38
20%
4.89
Win to Nil
13%
7.46
6%
17.04
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.0 | 7.4 | 4.5 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.6 | 11.7 | 7.1 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.6 | 9.3 | 5.7 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.0 | 4.9 | 3.0 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.6 | 2.0 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Port FC vs Uthai Thani?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.2%.
How many goals are Port FC and Uthai Thani expected to score?
The model projects 1.59 expected goals for Port FC and 1.22 for Uthai Thani, a combined total of 2.81.
How confident is the prediction model for Port FC vs Uthai Thani?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Port FC's recent record stands at 19W 6D 6L from 31 games, a 2.03 PPG return, with D-W-W-W-W in the last five. It's still early in the season for Port FC, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Uthai Thani, meanwhile, have gone 8W 10D 13L across 31 games — 1.10 PPG, with L-D-L-L-W in their last five. It's still early in the season for Uthai Thani, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours Port FC by 0.93 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Uthai Thani heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Port FC have managed 11W 4D 0L from 15 games — 2.47 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 2.03 PPG overall — Port FC are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Uthai Thani's away record stands at 3W 5D 7L across 15 trips, a 0.93 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Port FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Port FC are averaging 1.97 goals scored and 0.77 conceded per game recently; Uthai Thani are on 1.39 scored and 1.45 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Uthai Thani in 61%.
Defensively: Port FC have kept a clean sheet in 45% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 31 Results — Thai League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Port FC
Early Season
Uthai Thani
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Port FC and Uthai Thani in coming into this match?
Port FC have gone 19W 6D 6L in their last 31 games (2.03 PPG), while Uthai Thani have gone 8W 10D 13L in their last 31 (1.10 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Port FC at home or Uthai Thani away?
Port FC's home record (2.47 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Port FC at home: 2.47 PPG; Uthai Thani away: 0.93 PPG.
Have Port FC or Uthai Thani been keeping clean sheets recently?
Port FC have kept a clean sheet in 45% of their recent games, Uthai Thani in 16%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Thai League 1. They last met on 25 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear current trend here: Port FC have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 6 Oct 2023, when Port FC won 1-5 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Port FC's record when hosting Uthai Thani specifically: 1W 2D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Port FC
3
Draws
0
Uthai Thani
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Port FC and Uthai Thani?
From 6 meetings on record, Port FC have won 3, Uthai Thani have won 0, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Port FC and Uthai Thani last play each other?
They last met on 25 April 2026, when Uthai Thani 0-1 Port FC.
Who has won more matches between Port FC and Uthai Thani?
Port FC have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Port FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 73% of the time.
Uthai Thani are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Port FC 40%, Uthai Thani 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 60% (Port FC) and 47% (Uthai Thani).
On the defensive side: Port FC keep a clean sheet in 60% of their matches; Uthai Thani in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Port FC home games / Uthai Thani away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Port FC play Uthai Thani?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 40% of Port FC's recent matches and 60% of Uthai Thani's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Port FC vs Uthai Thani usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 60% of Port FC's recent games and 47% of Uthai Thani's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Port FC and Uthai Thani tend to score early?
Port FC have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, Uthai Thani in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.