Port FC 5-0 Sukhothai FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Port FC at 61% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Port FC vs Sukhothai FC encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Sukhothai FC make the trip to PAT Stadium to face Port FC in Thai League 1, Regular Season - 16. The match kicks off on Saturday 10 January 2026 at 11:30 UTC.
Form
Port FC (all games): 6W 2D 2L across 10 Thai League 1 fixtures this term — 2.00 PPG. Last five: D D W W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 0.50 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.50 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. This season is still relatively young for Port FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at PAT Stadium, Port FC have gone 6W 3D 1L this season (10 games, 2.10 PPG). They are averaging 2.40 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Sukhothai FC's overall Thai League 1 record this term: 3W 4D 3L from 10 games (1.30 PPG). Last five: W D L W L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Sukhothai FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Sukhothai FC have gone 0W 6D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.60 is notably below their overall 1.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form ledger tips toward Port FC. A 0.70 PPG lead over Sukhothai FC (2.00 vs 1.30) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 7 meetings: Port FC 4W, Sukhothai FC 3W, 0D.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.0 per game across 7 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 24 Aug 2025, ended 0–1 with Sukhothai FC winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Port FC goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (45 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games).
Sukhothai FC goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (45 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Port FC 56% versus Sukhothai FC 62%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Port FC 49% | Sukhothai FC 51%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Port FC 1.71 xG and Sukhothai FC 0.67 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Port FC attack 1.257 / defence 0.765 | Sukhothai FC attack 0.727 / defence 0.903. League average goals — home 1.502 / away 1.203. Port FC carry an above-average attack strength of 1.257 — their λ of 1.71 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Port FC's defence rating of 0.765 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 45 Port FC games / 45 Sukhothai FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Port FC 61% | Draw 27% | Sukhothai FC 12%. Fair-value odds: Port FC 1.64 | Draw 3.70 | Sukhothai FC 8.33. The model has a clear lean to Port FC (61%) — a 49pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 42% | Total xG 2.37. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.37 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 42% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Port FC at 61% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 27% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.37 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 42% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though H2H averaging only 3.0 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 42% on No. Form rates are neutral: Port FC 50% | Sukhothai FC 60%.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Port FC vs Sukhothai FC | Competition: Thai League 1, Regular Season - 16 | Venue: PAT Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 10 Jan 2026, 11:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Port FC 61% | Draw 27% | Sukhothai FC 12% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% | BTTS 42% | xG Port FC 1.71 / Sukhothai FC 0.67 • Poisson strength factors: Port FC attack 1.257 / def 0.765 | Sukhothai FC attack 0.727 / def 0.903 | league avg home 1.502 / away 1.203 • Poisson stance: Port FC (61%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.71
Port FC xG
Expected Goals
0.67
Sukhothai FC xG
42%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Port FC vs Sukhothai FC kick off?
Port FC vs Sukhothai FC kicked off at 11:30 on Saturday 10 January 2026 at PAT Stadium.
What was the final score in Port FC vs Sukhothai FC?
Port FC 5 - 0 Sukhothai FC.
Where is Port FC vs Sukhothai FC being played?
The match is being played at PAT Stadium.
What competition is Port FC vs Sukhothai FC part of?
Port FC vs Sukhothai FC is a Regular Season - 16 fixture in the Thai League 1 (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Port FC vs Sukhothai FC?
Our statistical model gives Port FC a 61% chance of winning, Sukhothai FC a 12% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Port FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Port FC vs Sukhothai FC?
Our model estimates a 42% probability that both Port FC and Sukhothai FC will score (BTTS).
Will Port FC vs Sukhothai FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%.
What is the head-to-head record between Port FC and Sukhothai FC?
Record (7 meetings): Port FC 4W | Draws 0 | Sukhothai FC 3W.
What form are Port FC and Sukhothai FC in?
Port FC (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 0.50 | L5 D-D-W-W-L. Sukhothai FC (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-D-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Port FC's attacking strength (1.26x league average) is weighed against Sukhothai FC's defensive record (0.90x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.71. Flip it around — Sukhothai FC's attack (0.73x) against Port FC's defence (0.77x) — and the away total comes out at 0.67.
These ratings are built from 45/45 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-0, at 14.5%. Close behind: 2-0 (13.5%), 1-1 (12.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Port FC Win
61%
1.65
27%
3.71
12%
8.05
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.9%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
13.5%
Home win
1 – 1
10.6%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.71
Port FC xG
Total xG
2.37
0.67
Sukhothai FC xG
1.65
61%
Home win
3.71
27%
Draw
8.05
12%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
42%
BTTS Yes
2.40
58%
BTTS No
1.72
Clean Sheet
51%
1.95
18%
5.50
Win to Nil
31%
3.22
2%
44.26
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.3 | 6.2 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 15.9 | 10.6 | 3.6 | 0.8 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 13.5 | 9.1 | 3.0 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 7.7 | 5.1 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 3.3 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 1.1 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Port FC vs Sukhothai FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are Port FC and Sukhothai FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.71 expected goals for Port FC and 0.67 for Sukhothai FC, a combined total of 2.37.
How confident is the prediction model for Port FC vs Sukhothai FC?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 61%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Port FC come into this having played 45 games, going 21W 12D 12L for 1.67 points per game. Their last five reads D-D-W-W-L. The sample for Port FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Sukhothai FC sit at 1.20 PPG from 45 outings (13W 15D 17L), a run that reads W-D-L-W-L across their last five. The sample for Sukhothai FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Port FC carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.47 PPG clear of Sukhothai FC — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
Port FC's home form reads 10W 8D 3L across 21 games on their own ground, a 1.81 PPG return.
Away from home, Sukhothai FC have taken 0.62 points per game from 21 outings (1W 10D 10L). That's a step down from their 1.20 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Sukhothai FC's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Port FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Port FC are averaging 1.71 goals scored and 1.07 conceded per game recently; Sukhothai FC are on 1.33 scored and 1.51 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Sukhothai FC in 62%.
Last 45 Results — Thai League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Port FC
Blended
Sukhothai FC
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Port FC and Sukhothai FC in coming into this match?
Port FC have gone 21W 12D 12L in their last 45 games (1.67 PPG), while Sukhothai FC have gone 13W 15D 17L in their last 45 (1.20 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Port FC at home or Sukhothai FC away?
Port FC's home record (1.81 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Port FC at home: 1.81 PPG; Sukhothai FC away: 0.62 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 8 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Thai League 1. They last met on 10 January 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Port FC won 5-0 on 10 Jan 2026, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Port FC have gone 4W 0D 0L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Sukhothai FC — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
5
Port FC
0
Draws
3
Sukhothai FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Port FC and Sukhothai FC?
From 8 meetings on record, Port FC have won 5, Sukhothai FC have won 3, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Port FC and Sukhothai FC last play each other?
They last met on 10 January 2026, when Port FC 5-0 Sukhothai FC.
Who has won more matches between Port FC and Sukhothai FC?
Port FC have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Port FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Sukhothai FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 24% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Port FC 62%, Sukhothai FC 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 52% (Port FC) and 38% (Sukhothai FC).
On the defensive side: Port FC keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Sukhothai FC in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Port FC home games / Sukhothai FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Port FC play Sukhothai FC?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 62% of Port FC's games and 57% of Sukhothai FC's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Port FC vs Sukhothai FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 52% of Port FC's recent games and 38% of Sukhothai FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Port FC and Sukhothai FC tend to score early?
Port FC have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Sukhothai FC in 76% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Port FC run riot with a 5-0 hammering of Sukhothai FC.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Port FC beat Sukhothai FC 5-0 at PAT Stadium, Regular Season - 16, in the Thai League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Port FC 1.71 xG and Sukhothai FC 0.67 xG, a combined 2.37. The scoreboard read 5-0 for 5 actual goals. Port FC beat their projection by 3.3 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Port FC attack 1.26 / defence 0.77 against Sukhothai FC attack 0.73 / defence 0.90, drawn from 45/45 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Port FC 61% | Draw 27% | Sukhothai FC 12%, with Port FC to win its most likely call at 61%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. Over 3.5 was 22% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Port FC 49%, Sukhothai FC 51%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Port FC's trading profile (45 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not.
Sukhothai FC's trading profile (45 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Port FC arrived the stronger side — 1.67 PPG against 1.20. That form edge translated into the three points. Port FC (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 1.95 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 0.95 average — tighter than their form line. Sukhothai FC (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.90 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 5 against a 1.76 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.