Port FC 3-2 Nakhon Ratchasima FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Port FC at 36%, yet other data sources diverge — this Port FC vs Nakhon Ratchasima FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
PAT Stadium plays host to Port FC versus Nakhon Ratchasima FC in Thai League 1, Regular Season - 25. Kick-off: Sunday 20 March 2022 at 11:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Port FC have collected 0.60 PPG across 10 Thai League 1 outings this season: 1W 3D 6L. Last five: L L L L D. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Port FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Port FC's home record at PAT Stadium: 4W 2D 4L from 10 Thai League 1 appearances (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at PAT Stadium. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 1.40 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.60 — Port FC are significantly better at PAT Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Nakhon Ratchasima FC's overall Thai League 1 record this term: 2W 3D 5L from 10 games (0.90 PPG). Last five: L L D L D. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Nakhon Ratchasima FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Nakhon Ratchasima FC away from home this season: 2W 4D 4L from 10 away games — 1.00 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 0.60 PPG for Port FC against 0.90 for Nakhon Ratchasima FC. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Port FC lead 0W to 1W over the last 1 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 4.0 goals per game across 1 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 7 Nov 2021, ended 1–3 with Nakhon Ratchasima FC winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading
Port FC half-time and goal-timing data (24 games, 12 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 25% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 17% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time.
Nakhon Ratchasima FC half-time and goal-timing data (24 games, 12 at away): they score before half-time in 92% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Port FC 42% versus Nakhon Ratchasima FC 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Port FC 38% | Nakhon Ratchasima FC 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Port FC 1.12 xG and Nakhon Ratchasima FC 1.03 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Port FC attack 0.827 / defence 1.097 | Nakhon Ratchasima FC attack 0.856 / defence 1.435. League average goals — home 0.948 / away 1.094. Nakhon Ratchasima FC bring a strong defensive rating of 1.435 — this is suppressing Port FC's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 25 Port FC games / 24 Nakhon Ratchasima FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Port FC 36% | Draw 33% | Nakhon Ratchasima FC 31%. Fair-value odds: Port FC 2.78 | Draw 3.03 | Nakhon Ratchasima FC 3.23. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 36% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.15. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 64% — total xG of 2.15 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Port FC at 36% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 33% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Port FC if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.15 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 36% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 45% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Port FC 30% | Nakhon Ratchasima FC 70%.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Port FC vs Nakhon Ratchasima FC | Competition: Thai League 1, Regular Season - 25 | Venue: PAT Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 20 Mar 2022, 11:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Port FC 36% | Draw 33% | Nakhon Ratchasima FC 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 36% | BTTS 45% | xG Port FC 1.12 / Nakhon Ratchasima FC 1.03 • Poisson strength factors: Port FC attack 0.827 / def 1.097 | Nakhon Ratchasima FC attack 0.856 / def 1.435 | league avg home 0.948 / away 1.094 • Poisson stance: Port FC (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.12
Port FC xG
Expected Goals
1.03
Nakhon Ratchasima FC xG
45%
BTTS
65%
Over 1.5
36%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Port FC vs Nakhon Ratchasima FC kick off?
Port FC vs Nakhon Ratchasima FC kicked off at 11:30 on Sunday 20 March 2022 at PAT Stadium.
What was the final score in Port FC vs Nakhon Ratchasima FC?
Port FC 3 - 2 Nakhon Ratchasima FC.
Where is Port FC vs Nakhon Ratchasima FC being played?
The match is being played at PAT Stadium.
What competition is Port FC vs Nakhon Ratchasima FC part of?
Port FC vs Nakhon Ratchasima FC is a Regular Season - 25 fixture in the Thai League 1 (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Port FC vs Nakhon Ratchasima FC?
Our statistical model gives Port FC a 36% chance of winning, Nakhon Ratchasima FC a 31% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Port FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Port FC vs Nakhon Ratchasima FC?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Port FC and Nakhon Ratchasima FC will score (BTTS).
Will Port FC vs Nakhon Ratchasima FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 36%.
What is the head-to-head record between Port FC and Nakhon Ratchasima FC?
Record (1 meetings): Port FC 0W | Draws 0 | Nakhon Ratchasima FC 1W.
What form are Port FC and Nakhon Ratchasima FC in?
Port FC (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-L-L-L-D. Nakhon Ratchasima FC (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-L-D-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Port FC's attack rating (0.83) and Nakhon Ratchasima FC's defence rating (1.44), the model arrives at 1.12 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Nakhon Ratchasima FC's attack (0.86x) against Port FC's defence (1.10x) — and the away total comes out at 1.03.
These ratings are built from 25/24 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.2%. Close behind: 0-0 (13.4%), 1-0 (11.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Port FC Win
36%
2.78
33%
3.03
31%
3.22
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
13.1%
Home win
0 – 1
12.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.12
Port FC xG
Total xG
2.15
1.03
Nakhon Ratchasima FC xG
2.78
36%
Home win
3.03
33%
Draw
3.22
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
63%
Over 1.5
1.59
37%
Under 1.5
2.70
36%
Over 2.5
2.78
64%
Under 2.5
1.56
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.22
55%
BTTS No
1.82
Clean Sheet
36%
2.79
32%
3.08
Win to Nil
13%
7.76
10%
9.91
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.6 | 12.0 | 6.1 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.1 | 13.4 | 6.9 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.4 | 7.5 | 3.9 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.8 | 2.8 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Port FC vs Nakhon Ratchasima FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.2%.
How many goals are Port FC and Nakhon Ratchasima FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.12 expected goals for Port FC and 1.03 for Nakhon Ratchasima FC, a combined total of 2.15.
How confident is the prediction model for Port FC vs Nakhon Ratchasima FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Port FC's recent record stands at 9W 5D 10L from 24 games, a 1.33 PPG return, with L-L-L-L-D in the last five. The sample for Port FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Nakhon Ratchasima FC, meanwhile, have gone 7W 7D 10L across 24 games — 1.17 PPG, with L-L-D-L-D in their last five. The sample for Nakhon Ratchasima FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.33 PPG for Port FC against 1.17 for Nakhon Ratchasima FC. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Port FC have managed 6W 2D 4L from 12 games — 1.67 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Nakhon Ratchasima FC's away record stands at 2W 4D 6L across 12 trips, a 0.83 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Port FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Port FC are averaging 1.17 goals scored and 1.04 conceded per game recently; Nakhon Ratchasima FC are on 1.08 scored and 1.50 conceded.
Defensively: Port FC have kept a clean sheet in 46% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 24 Results — Thai League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Port FC
Blended
Nakhon Ratchasima FC
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Port FC and Nakhon Ratchasima FC in coming into this match?
Port FC have gone 9W 5D 10L in their last 24 games (1.33 PPG), while Nakhon Ratchasima FC have gone 7W 7D 10L in their last 24 (1.17 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Port FC at home or Nakhon Ratchasima FC away?
Port FC's home record (1.67 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Port FC at home: 1.67 PPG; Nakhon Ratchasima FC away: 0.83 PPG.
Have Port FC or Nakhon Ratchasima FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Port FC have kept a clean sheet in 46% of their recent games, Nakhon Ratchasima FC in 25%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 8 times since November 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Thai League 1. They last met on 21 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Port FC go into this on the back of 4 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Port FC have gone 4W 0D 0L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Nakhon Ratchasima FC — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
6
Port FC
1
Draws
1
Nakhon Ratchasima FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Port FC and Nakhon Ratchasima FC?
From 8 meetings on record, Port FC have won 6, Nakhon Ratchasima FC have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Port FC and Nakhon Ratchasima FC last play each other?
They last met on 21 February 2026, when Port FC 2-0 Nakhon Ratchasima FC.
Who has won more matches between Port FC and Nakhon Ratchasima FC?
Port FC have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Port FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Nakhon Ratchasima FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 92% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Port FC 25%, Nakhon Ratchasima FC 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 17% for Port FC and 42% for Nakhon Ratchasima FC.
On the defensive side: Port FC keep a clean sheet in 58% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Port FC home games / Nakhon Ratchasima FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Port FC play Nakhon Ratchasima FC?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 25% of Port FC's recent matches and 67% of Nakhon Ratchasima FC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Port FC vs Nakhon Ratchasima FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 17% of Port FC's recent games and 42% of Nakhon Ratchasima FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Port FC and Nakhon Ratchasima FC tend to score early?
Port FC have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Nakhon Ratchasima FC in 92% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Port FC edge out Nakhon Ratchasima FC 3-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Port FC beat Nakhon Ratchasima FC 3-2 at PAT Stadium, Regular Season - 25, in the Thai League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Port FC 1.12 xG and Nakhon Ratchasima FC 1.03 xG, a combined 2.15. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. Port FC beat their projection by 1.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Nakhon Ratchasima FC outscored their 1.03 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Port FC attack 0.83 / defence 1.10 against Nakhon Ratchasima FC attack 0.86 / defence 1.44, drawn from 25/24 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Port FC 36% | Draw 33% | Nakhon Ratchasima FC 31%, with Port FC to win its most likely call at 36%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 36%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 65% and landed. Over 3.5 was 17% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Port FC 38%, Nakhon Ratchasima FC 46%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Port FC's trading profile (24 games, 12 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time, and conceded here.
Nakhon Ratchasima FC's trading profile (24 games, 12 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Port FC 1.33 PPG, Nakhon Ratchasima FC 1.17 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Port FC win broke the near-deadlock. Port FC (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 0.75 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Nakhon Ratchasima FC (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.08 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.83 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.