Port FC 1-2 Khon Kaen United – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model favours Port FC (64%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Port FC face Khon Kaen United.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Port FC host Khon Kaen United at PAT Stadium in Thai League 1, Regular Season - 17. Kick-off is scheduled for Wednesday 15 January 2025 at 11:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Port FC stand at 4W 3D 3L from 10 Thai League 1 matches — 1.50 PPG. Last five: L D W W L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Port FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Port FC's home record at PAT Stadium: 7W 2D 1L from 10 Thai League 1 appearances (2.30 PPG). They are averaging 2.50 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.30 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.50 — Port FC are significantly better at PAT Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Khon Kaen United — All Games: 1W 3D 6L from 10 Thai League 1 fixtures this season — 0.60 PPG. Last five: L L L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. This season is still relatively young for Khon Kaen United, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Khon Kaen United have gone 2W 1D 7L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 2.50 conceded per game.
On current form, Port FC have the edge — a 0.90 PPG advantage (1.50 vs 0.60) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
H2H Record
Port FC hold a clear advantage in this fixture, picking up 4 wins from 7 previous encounters compared to 1 for Khon Kaen United, with 2 draws in between.
The 7 previous meetings have averaged 2.6 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 24 Aug 2024, ended 2–1 with Port FC winning.
The historical record gives Port FC a meaningful edge here — 4 wins from 7 meetings is the kind of ledger that should not be discounted when the form picture is inconclusive. Even away from home, the visitors have struggled to impose themselves in this fixture.
In-Play Data
Port FC trading profile (46 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; they lead at the break 48% of the time; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 68% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 48%.
Khon Kaen United trading profile (46 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 41%; they fail to score in 48% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Port FC 70% versus Khon Kaen United 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Port FC 65% | Khon Kaen United 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Port FC 1.87 xG and Khon Kaen United 0.69 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Port FC attack 1.107 / defence 0.873 | Khon Kaen United attack 0.677 / defence 1.031. League average goals — home 1.641 / away 1.168. Data: 46 Port FC games / 46 Khon Kaen United games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Port FC 64% | Draw 24% | Khon Kaen United 12%. Fair-value odds: Port FC 1.56 | Draw 4.17 | Khon Kaen United 8.33. The model has a clear lean to Port FC (64%) — a 52pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 2.56. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.56 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Port FC as the most likely outcome at 64% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 24% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.56 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 47% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though form averaging only 3.3 goals per game points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 43%. Form rates are neutral: Port FC 60% | Khon Kaen United 40%.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Port FC vs Khon Kaen United | Competition: Thai League 1, Regular Season - 17 | Venue: PAT Stadium • Kick-off: Wednesday 15 Jan 2025, 11:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Port FC 64% | Draw 24% | Khon Kaen United 12% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% | BTTS 43% | xG Port FC 1.87 / Khon Kaen United 0.69 • Poisson strength factors: Port FC attack 1.107 / def 0.873 | Khon Kaen United attack 0.677 / def 1.031 | league avg home 1.641 / away 1.168 • Poisson stance: Port FC (64%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.87
Port FC xG
Expected Goals
0.69
Khon Kaen United xG
43%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Port FC vs Khon Kaen United kick off?
Port FC vs Khon Kaen United kicked off at 11:00 on Wednesday 15 January 2025 at PAT Stadium.
What was the final score in Port FC vs Khon Kaen United?
Port FC 1 - 2 Khon Kaen United.
Where is Port FC vs Khon Kaen United being played?
The match is being played at PAT Stadium.
What competition is Port FC vs Khon Kaen United part of?
Port FC vs Khon Kaen United is a Regular Season - 17 fixture in the Thai League 1 (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Port FC vs Khon Kaen United?
Our statistical model gives Port FC a 64% chance of winning, Khon Kaen United a 12% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Port FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Port FC vs Khon Kaen United?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both Port FC and Khon Kaen United will score (BTTS).
Will Port FC vs Khon Kaen United have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%.
What is the head-to-head record between Port FC and Khon Kaen United?
Record (7 meetings): Port FC 4W | Draws 2 | Khon Kaen United 1W.
What form are Port FC and Khon Kaen United in?
Port FC (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-D-W-W-L. Khon Kaen United (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.40 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-L-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Port FC's attack rating (1.11) and Khon Kaen United's defence rating (1.03), the model arrives at 1.87 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Khon Kaen United's attack versus Port FC's defence, projects 0.69 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 46/46 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 2-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.5%. Close behind: 1-0 (13.1%), 1-1 (11.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Port FC Win
64%
1.55
24%
4.24
12%
8.38
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.4%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
13.5%
Home win
1 – 1
10.0%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.87
Port FC xG
Total xG
2.56
0.69
Khon Kaen United xG
1.55
64%
Home win
4.24
24%
Draw
8.38
12%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.31
57%
BTTS No
1.76
Clean Sheet
50%
1.99
15%
6.50
Win to Nil
32%
3.09
2%
54.45
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.7 | 5.3 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 14.4 | 10.0 | 3.4 | 0.8 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 13.5 | 9.3 | 3.2 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 8.4 | 5.8 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 3.9 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 1.5 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Port FC vs Khon Kaen United?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.5%.
How many goals are Port FC and Khon Kaen United expected to score?
The model projects 1.87 expected goals for Port FC and 0.69 for Khon Kaen United, a combined total of 2.56.
How confident is the prediction model for Port FC vs Khon Kaen United?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 64%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Port FC come into this having played 46 games, going 24W 14D 8L for 1.87 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-W-W-L. The sample for Port FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Khon Kaen United sit at 0.91 PPG from 46 outings (9W 15D 22L), a run that reads L-L-L-L-L across their last five. The sample for Khon Kaen United is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Port FC carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.96 PPG clear of Khon Kaen United — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Port FC's home form reads 15W 3D 4L across 22 games on their own ground, a 2.18 PPG return.
Away from home, Khon Kaen United have taken 0.68 points per game from 22 outings (4W 3D 15L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Port FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Port FC are averaging 2.17 goals scored and 1.17 conceded per game recently; Khon Kaen United are on 1.09 scored and 1.83 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Port FC have seen both teams score in 70% of their recent games.
Last 46 Results — Thai League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Port FC
Blended
Khon Kaen United
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Port FC and Khon Kaen United in coming into this match?
Port FC have gone 24W 14D 8L in their last 46 games (1.87 PPG), while Khon Kaen United have gone 9W 15D 22L in their last 46 (0.91 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Port FC at home or Khon Kaen United away?
Port FC's home record (2.18 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Port FC at home: 2.18 PPG; Khon Kaen United away: 0.68 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Port FC and Khon Kaen United runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Thai League 1. It has been a while since the last meeting — 15 January 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 30 Sep 2023, when Port FC won 6-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Port FC's record when hosting Khon Kaen United specifically: 3W 0D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
4
Port FC
2
Draws
2
Khon Kaen United
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Port FC and Khon Kaen United?
From 8 meetings on record, Port FC have won 4, Khon Kaen United have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Port FC and Khon Kaen United last play each other?
They last met on 15 January 2025, when Port FC 1-2 Khon Kaen United.
Who has won more matches between Port FC and Khon Kaen United?
Port FC have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Port FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 54% of the time.
Khon Kaen United are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Port FC 64%, Khon Kaen United 41% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 68% (Port FC) and 50% (Khon Kaen United). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 46% and 50% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Port FC keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches; Khon Kaen United in 54%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Port FC home games / Khon Kaen United away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Port FC play Khon Kaen United?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 64% of Port FC's recent matches and 41% of Khon Kaen United's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Port FC vs Khon Kaen United usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 68% of Port FC's matches and 50% of Khon Kaen United's.
Do Port FC and Khon Kaen United tend to score early?
Port FC have had a goal before half-time in 82% of their recent matches, Khon Kaen United in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Khon Kaen United defy the odds to beat Port FC 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Khon Kaen United beat Port FC 1-2 at PAT Stadium, Regular Season - 17, in the Thai League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Port FC 1.87 xG and Khon Kaen United 0.69 xG, a combined 2.56. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Port FC fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Khon Kaen United outscored their 0.69 projection by 1.3. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Port FC attack 1.11 / defence 0.87 against Khon Kaen United attack 0.68 / defence 1.03, drawn from 46/46 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Port FC 64% | Draw 24% | Khon Kaen United 12%, with Port FC to win its most likely call at 64%. Instead the game produced a Khon Kaen United win, an outcome the model had rated at just 12% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Port FC 65%, Khon Kaen United 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Port FC's trading profile (46 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 70% of their matches — today it did.
Khon Kaen United's trading profile (46 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Port FC arrived the stronger side — 1.87 PPG against 0.91. Form was overturned, with Khon Kaen United winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Port FC (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.55 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.14 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Khon Kaen United (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.91 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 2.45 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.