Port FC 4-1 Buriram United – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Port FC at 41%, yet other data sources diverge — this Port FC vs Buriram United fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Thai League 1 clash, Regular Season - 14 as Port FC welcome Buriram United to PAT Stadium. Kick-off is set for Sunday 17 December 2023 at 11:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Thai League 1 games this season, Port FC have gone 5W 1D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.60 PPG return. Last five: L L D L W. They are averaging 2.40 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Port FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Port FC at PAT Stadium this season: 7W 0D 3L from 10 home games — 2.10 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.50 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.10 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.60 — Port FC are significantly better at PAT Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Buriram United — All Games: 5W 5D 0L from 10 Thai League 1 fixtures this season — 2.00 PPG. Last five: D D D D W. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 0.60. Defensively, 0.60 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Buriram United, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Buriram United's form when playing away from home: 5W 4D 1L across 10 road games this term (1.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.60 PPG (Port FC) versus 2.00 (Buriram United). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Port FC, 3 for Buriram United and 0 shared spoils from 4 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 4 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.5 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 30 Apr 2023, ended 3–2 with Port FC winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.5 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Port FC in-play and half-time data (41 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 95% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 79% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 68% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 49%.
Buriram United in-play and half-time data (41 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 56% of the time; they lead at the break 61% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 42%; they keep a clean sheet 49% of the time.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Port FC 78% and Buriram United 51% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Port FC 63% | Buriram United 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Port FC 1.72 xG and Buriram United 1.51 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Port FC attack 1.303 / defence 1.185 | Buriram United attack 0.967 / defence 0.804. League average goals — home 1.636 / away 1.322. Port FC carry an above-average attack strength of 1.303 — their λ of 1.72 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 43 Port FC games / 41 Buriram United games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Port FC 41% | Draw 26% | Buriram United 33%. Fair-value odds: Port FC 2.44 | Draw 3.85 | Buriram United 3.03. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 63% | BTTS probability 65% | Total xG 3.23. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 63% — the 3.23 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 65% reflects that both xG figures (1.72 / 1.51) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Port FC at 41% — marginal model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Port FC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.23 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 63% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.5 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 65% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Port FC 70% | Buriram United 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Port FC vs Buriram United | Competition: Thai League 1, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: PAT Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 17 Dec 2023, 11:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Port FC 41% | Draw 26% | Buriram United 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 63% | BTTS 65% | xG Port FC 1.72 / Buriram United 1.51 • Poisson strength factors: Port FC attack 1.303 / def 1.185 | Buriram United attack 0.967 / def 0.804 | league avg home 1.636 / away 1.322 • Poisson stance: Port FC (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.72
Port FC xG
Expected Goals
1.51
Buriram United xG
65%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
63%
Over 2.5
40%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Port FC vs Buriram United kick off?
Port FC vs Buriram United kicked off at 11:00 on Sunday 17 December 2023 at PAT Stadium.
What was the final score in Port FC vs Buriram United?
Port FC 4 - 1 Buriram United.
Where is Port FC vs Buriram United being played?
The match is being played at PAT Stadium.
What competition is Port FC vs Buriram United part of?
Port FC vs Buriram United is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the Thai League 1 (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Port FC vs Buriram United?
Our statistical model gives Port FC a 41% chance of winning, Buriram United a 33% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Port FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Port FC vs Buriram United?
Our model estimates a 65% probability that both Port FC and Buriram United will score (BTTS).
Will Port FC vs Buriram United have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 63%.
What is the head-to-head record between Port FC and Buriram United?
Record (4 meetings): Port FC 1W | Draws 0 | Buriram United 3W.
What form are Port FC and Buriram United in?
Port FC (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 2.40 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-L-D-L-W. Buriram United (all comps): 5W-5D-0L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 0.60 | L5 D-D-D-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Port FC's attack rating (1.30) and Buriram United's defence rating (0.80), the model arrives at 1.72 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Buriram United's attack versus Port FC's defence, projects 1.51 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 43/41 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.6%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.8%), 1-2 (7.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Port FC Win
41%
2.41
26%
3.91
33%
3.03
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.3%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.8%
Home win
1 – 2
7.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.72
Port FC xG
Total xG
3.23
1.51
Buriram United xG
2.41
41%
Home win
3.91
26%
Draw
3.03
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
63%
Over 2.5
1.59
37%
Under 2.5
2.70
40%
Over 3.5
2.50
60%
Under 3.5
1.67
22%
Over 4.5
4.55
78%
Under 4.5
1.28
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
65%
BTTS Yes
1.54
35%
BTTS No
2.87
Clean Sheet
22%
4.54
18%
5.56
Win to Nil
9%
10.96
6%
16.86
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.0 | 6.0 | 4.5 | 2.3 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 6.8 | 10.3 | 7.8 | 3.9 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.8 | 8.8 | 6.7 | 3.4 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 3.3 | 5.0 | 3.8 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.4 | 2.2 | 1.6 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Port FC vs Buriram United?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.6%.
How many goals are Port FC and Buriram United expected to score?
The model projects 1.72 expected goals for Port FC and 1.51 for Buriram United, a combined total of 3.23.
How confident is the prediction model for Port FC vs Buriram United?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Port FC's recent record stands at 20W 11D 10L from 41 games, a 1.73 PPG return, with L-L-D-L-W in the last five. The sample for Port FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Buriram United, meanwhile, have gone 28W 11D 2L across 41 games — 2.32 PPG, with D-D-D-D-W in their last five. The sample for Buriram United is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Buriram United by 0.59 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Port FC heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Port FC have managed 12W 3D 4L from 19 games — 2.05 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Buriram United's away record stands at 12W 6D 1L across 19 trips, a 2.21 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
Port FC are averaging 1.93 goals scored and 1.34 conceded per game recently; Buriram United are on 2.27 scored and 0.80 conceded. Port FC's scoring rate against Buriram United's tighter defensive record is one of the more interesting match-ups in the goals markets here.
On BTTS specifically: Port FC have seen both teams score in 78% of their recent games.
Defensively: Buriram United in 49% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 41 Results — Thai League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Port FC
Blended
Buriram United
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Port FC and Buriram United in coming into this match?
Port FC have gone 20W 11D 10L in their last 41 games (1.73 PPG), while Buriram United have gone 28W 11D 2L in their last 41 (2.32 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Port FC at home or Buriram United away?
Buriram United's away record (2.21 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Port FC at home: 2.05 PPG; Buriram United away: 2.21 PPG.
Have Port FC or Buriram United been keeping clean sheets recently?
Port FC have kept a clean sheet in 15% of their recent games, Buriram United in 49%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Thai League 1. They last met on 2 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 17 Dec 2023, when Port FC won 4-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Port FC's record when hosting Buriram United specifically: 2W 1D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Port FC
2
Draws
4
Buriram United
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Port FC and Buriram United?
From 10 meetings on record, Port FC have won 4, Buriram United have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Port FC and Buriram United last play each other?
They last met on 2 May 2026, when Port FC 3-1 Buriram United.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Port FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 95% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 68% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 21% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
Buriram United are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 53% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Port FC at 79%, Buriram United at 53%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 68% for Port FC and 53% for Buriram United. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 53% and 32% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Buriram United in 47%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Port FC home games / Buriram United away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Port FC play Buriram United?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 79% of Port FC's games and 53% of Buriram United's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Port FC vs Buriram United usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 68% of Port FC's matches and 53% of Buriram United's.
Do Port FC and Buriram United tend to score early?
Port FC have had a goal before half-time in 95% of their recent matches, Buriram United in 74% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Port FC run riot with a 4-1 hammering of Buriram United.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Port FC beat Buriram United 4-1 at PAT Stadium, Regular Season - 14, in the Thai League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Port FC 1.72 xG and Buriram United 1.51 xG, a combined 3.23. The scoreboard read 4-1 for 5 actual goals. Port FC beat their projection by 2.3 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Port FC attack 1.30 / defence 1.19 against Buriram United attack 0.97 / defence 0.80, drawn from 43/41 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Port FC 41% | Draw 26% | Buriram United 33%, with Port FC to win its most likely call at 41%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 63%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. Over 3.5 was 40% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 65% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 61% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Port FC 63%, Buriram United 58%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 65%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Port FC's trading profile (41 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 78% of their matches — today it did.
Buriram United's trading profile (41 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 49% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Buriram United arrived the stronger side — 2.32 PPG against 1.73. Form was overturned, with Port FC winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Port FC (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 2.21 average — above their attacking norm. Buriram United (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.00 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 0.95 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.