Buriram United 4-0 Uthai Thani – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Buriram United at 60% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Buriram United face Uthai Thani.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Uthai Thani make the trip to Chang Arena to face Buriram United in Thai League 1 (matchday 15). The match kicks off on Saturday 23 December 2023 at 13:00 UK time.
Form
Buriram United (all games): 4W 5D 1L across their last 10 — 1.70 PPG. Last five: D D D W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.00 conceded. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches.
In front of their own supporters, Buriram United have posted 6W 3D 1L from their last 10 home games — 2.10 PPG. They are averaging 2.50 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 6 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home.
Uthai Thani's record over their last 10 games: 5W 3D 2L (1.80 PPG). Last five: D L D W D. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.50. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Uthai Thani's away record over their last 6 away games: 3W 1D 2L (1.67 PPG). Away from home they average 1.67 goals scored and 1.67 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 67% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.70 vs 1.80 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Trading
Buriram United half-time and goal-timing data (last 14 games, 6 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 67% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 20% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 43%; they keep a clean sheet 57% of the time.
Uthai Thani half-time and goal-timing data (last 14 games, 6 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 83% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 83% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 43%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Buriram United 43% versus Uthai Thani 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Buriram United 57% | Uthai Thani 64%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Buriram United 2.11 xG and Uthai Thani 1.07 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Buriram United attack 1.109 / defence 0.738 | Uthai Thani attack 1.092 / defence 1.133. League average goals — home 1.676 / away 1.334. Buriram United have a tight defence (rating 0.738), which is pulling Uthai Thani's projected output down. Data: built from Buriram United's last 42 games and Uthai Thani's last 14.
Result probabilities: Buriram United 60% | Draw 23% | Uthai Thani 17%. Fair-value odds: Buriram United 1.67 | Draw 4.41 | Uthai Thani 5.74. The model has a clear lean to Buriram United (60%) — a 37pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 62% | BTTS Yes probability 59% | Total xG 3.18. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 62% — the 3.18 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 59% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Buriram United at 60% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 3.18 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 62% — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Buriram United's last 10 home games and Uthai Thani's last 6 away games) averaging 3.3 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 59% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Buriram United 40% (last 10 home games) | Uthai Thani 67% (last 6 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Buriram United vs Uthai Thani | Competition: Thai League 1, matchday 15 | Venue: Chang Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 23 December 2023 at 13:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Buriram United 60% | Draw 23% | Uthai Thani 17% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 62% (Under 38%) | BTTS Yes 59% (No 41%) | xG Buriram United 2.11 / Uthai Thani 1.07 • Poisson strength factors: Buriram United attack 1.109 / def 0.738 | Uthai Thani attack 1.092 / def 1.133 | league avg home 1.676 / away 1.334 • Poisson stance: Buriram United (60%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.11
Buriram United xG
Expected Goals
1.07
Uthai Thani xG
59%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
62%
Over 2.5
39%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Buriram United vs Uthai Thani FAQs
What time does Buriram United vs Uthai Thani kick off?
Buriram United vs Uthai Thani kicked off at 13:00 UK time on Saturday 23 December 2023 at Chang Arena.
What was the final score in Buriram United vs Uthai Thani?
Buriram United 4 - 0 Uthai Thani.
Where is Buriram United vs Uthai Thani being played?
The match is being played at Chang Arena.
What competition is Buriram United vs Uthai Thani part of?
Buriram United vs Uthai Thani is a Thai League 1 fixture (matchday 15) (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Buriram United vs Uthai Thani?
Our statistical model gives Buriram United a 60% chance of winning, Uthai Thani a 17% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Buriram United the favourite.
Will both teams score in Buriram United vs Uthai Thani?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both Buriram United and Uthai Thani will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Buriram United vs Uthai Thani have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 62%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Buriram United's attack rating (1.11) and Uthai Thani's defence rating (1.13), the model arrives at 2.11 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Uthai Thani's attack (1.09x) against Buriram United's defence (0.74x) — and the away total comes out at 1.07.
These ratings are built from Buriram United's last 42 games and Uthai Thani's last 14 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 10.6%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.9%), 2-0 (9.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Buriram United Win
60%
1.67
23%
4.41
17%
5.74
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.9%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
9.4%
Draw
2 – 0
9.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.11
Buriram United xG
Total xG
3.18
1.07
Uthai Thani xG
1.67
60%
Home win
4.41
23%
Draw
5.74
17%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
62%
Over 2.5
1.61
38%
Under 2.5
2.63
39%
Over 3.5
2.56
61%
Under 3.5
1.64
22%
Over 4.5
4.55
78%
Under 4.5
1.28
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.70
41%
BTTS No
2.44
Clean Sheet
34%
2.93
12%
8.22
Win to Nil
20%
4.89
2%
47.23
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.2 | 4.5 | 2.4 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 8.7 | 9.4 | 5.1 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.2 | 9.9 | 5.3 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.5 | 7.0 | 3.7 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.4 | 3.7 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 1.4 | 1.5 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Buriram United vs Uthai Thani Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Buriram United vs Uthai Thani?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.6%.
How many goals are Buriram United and Uthai Thani expected to score?
The model projects 2.11 expected goals for Buriram United and 1.07 for Uthai Thani, a combined total of 3.18.
How confident is the prediction model for Buriram United vs Uthai Thani?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 60%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 14 outings, Buriram United have picked up 1.79 PPG on a 6W 7D 1L record — D-D-D-W-L across the most recent five.
Uthai Thani's form line: 5W 3D 6L from 14 games, 1.29 PPG, last five D-L-D-W-D.
Put side by side, Buriram United are the form team by 0.50 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Uthai Thani.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Buriram United have posted 2.00 PPG from their last 6 home games (3W 3D 0L).
On the road, Uthai Thani have gone 3W 1D 2L from their last 6 away games — 1.67 PPG when travelling.
Attack vs Defence
Buriram United are averaging 1.71 goals scored and 0.79 conceded per game recently; Uthai Thani are on 1.36 scored and 1.86 conceded.
Defensively: Buriram United have kept a clean sheet in 57% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 14 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Buriram United
Blended
Uthai Thani
Blended
Buriram United (Home) vs Uthai Thani (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Buriram United
Blended
Uthai Thani
Blended
❓ Buriram United vs Uthai Thani Form FAQs
What form are Buriram United and Uthai Thani in coming into this match?
Buriram United have gone 6W 7D 1L in their last 14 games (1.79 PPG), while Uthai Thani have gone 5W 3D 6L in their last 14 (1.29 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Buriram United at home or Uthai Thani away?
Buriram United's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Buriram United at home: 2.00 PPG; Uthai Thani away: 1.67 PPG.
Have Buriram United or Uthai Thani been keeping clean sheets recently?
Buriram United have kept a clean sheet in 57% of their recent games, Uthai Thani in 21%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 6 H2H matches between Buriram United and Uthai Thani, the earliest from December 2023. All of them came in Thai League 1. The most recent was on 9 January 2026, roughly 10 months ago.
Notable Numbers
There's a clear recent trend here: Buriram United have taken the most recent 2 H2H results in our data.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Buriram United won Buriram United 4-0 Uthai Thani on 23 Dec 2023, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Buriram United have gone 3W 0D 0L from the 3 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Uthai Thani — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
5
Buriram United
1
Draws
0
Uthai Thani
Recent Meetings
❓ Buriram United vs Uthai Thani H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Buriram United and Uthai Thani?
Across the 6 head-to-head matches in our data, Buriram United have won 5, Uthai Thani have won 0, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Buriram United and Uthai Thani last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 9 January 2026: Uthai Thani 0-1 Buriram United.
Who has won more matches between Buriram United and Uthai Thani?
Buriram United have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from the 6 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Buriram United are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 67% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Uthai Thani are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 50% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Buriram United 33%, Uthai Thani 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 67% for Buriram United and 83% for Uthai Thani. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 50% and 33% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Buriram United keep a clean sheet in 67% of their matches; Buriram United have failed to score in 33% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Buriram United home games / Uthai Thani away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Buriram United vs Uthai Thani Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Buriram United and Uthai Thani matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 33% of Buriram United's recent matches and 67% of Uthai Thani's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Buriram United and Uthai Thani matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of Buriram United's matches and 83% of Uthai Thani's.
Do Buriram United and Uthai Thani matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 67% of Buriram United's recent matches and 83% of Uthai Thani's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Buriram United run riot with a 4-0 hammering of Uthai Thani.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Buriram United beat Uthai Thani 4-0 at Chang Arena, Regular Season - 15, in the Thai League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Buriram United 2.11 xG and Uthai Thani 1.07 xG, a combined 3.18. The scoreboard read 4-0 for 4 actual goals. Buriram United beat their projection by 1.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Uthai Thani landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Buriram United attack 1.11 / defence 0.74 against Uthai Thani attack 1.09 / defence 1.13, drawn from 42/14 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Buriram United 60% | Draw 23% | Uthai Thani 17%, with Buriram United to win its most likely call at 60%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 62%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. Over 3.5 was 39% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 61% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Buriram United 57%, Uthai Thani 64%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Buriram United's trading profile (14 games, 6 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 57% of the time, and duly kept one.
Uthai Thani's trading profile (14 games, 6 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 29% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Buriram United arrived the stronger side — 1.79 PPG against 1.29. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Buriram United (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 2.17 average — above their attacking norm. Uthai Thani (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.67 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 1.67 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.