Police Tero 0-0 Chiangrai United – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Chiangrai United at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this Police Tero vs Chiangrai United fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Chiangrai United make the trip to Boonyachinda Stadium to face Police Tero in Thai League 1, Regular Season - 27. The match kicks off on Saturday 4 May 2024 at 12:30 UTC.
Form
Police Tero (all games): 1W 2D 7L across 10 Thai League 1 fixtures this term — 0.50 PPG. Last five: L L D W L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 2.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.60 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Police Tero, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Police Tero at Boonyachinda Stadium this season: 2W 3D 5L from 10 home games — 0.90 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Chiangrai United have collected 1.00 PPG across 10 Thai League 1 outings this season: 3W 1D 6L. Last five: L L L W W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Chiangrai United, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Chiangrai United away from home this season: 2W 3D 5L from 10 away games — 0.90 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Chiangrai United are 0.50 PPG clear of Police Tero in recent Thai League 1 fixtures (1.00 vs 0.50). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — Police Tero register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant games, Chiangrai United in 70%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 5 head-to-head meetings have produced 3 wins for Police Tero, 1 for Chiangrai United and 1 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
The 5 previous meetings have averaged 2.4 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 11 Dec 2023, ended 2–1 with Police Tero winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
Police Tero goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (56 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 45%.
Chiangrai United goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (56 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Police Tero 68% and Chiangrai United 66% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Police Tero 62% | Chiangrai United 55%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Police Tero 1.15 xG and Chiangrai United 1.25 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Police Tero attack 0.754 / defence 1.153 | Chiangrai United attack 0.891 / defence 0.909. League average goals — home 1.673 / away 1.219. Police Tero's attack strength of 0.754 is below the league average — the 1.15 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 56 Police Tero games / 56 Chiangrai United games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Police Tero 33% | Draw 29% | Chiangrai United 38%. Fair-value odds: Police Tero 3.03 | Draw 3.45 | Chiangrai United 2.63. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.40. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.40 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
Police Tero dominate the H2H record, yet Chiangrai United are the in-form side right now — historical edge versus current momentum creates a genuine dilemma.
On the Poisson output, Chiangrai United are the pick at 38% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Chiangrai United if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.40 combined xG gives a 43% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 49%. This conflicts with form data: Police Tero 70% | Chiangrai United 70% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Police Tero vs Chiangrai United | Competition: Thai League 1, Regular Season - 27 | Venue: Boonyachinda Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 4 May 2024, 12:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Police Tero 33% | Draw 29% | Chiangrai United 38% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% | BTTS 49% | xG Police Tero 1.15 / Chiangrai United 1.25 • Poisson strength factors: Police Tero attack 0.754 / def 1.153 | Chiangrai United attack 0.891 / def 0.909 | league avg home 1.673 / away 1.219 • Poisson stance: Chiangrai United (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.15
Police Tero xG
Expected Goals
1.25
Chiangrai United xG
49%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Police Tero vs Chiangrai United kick off?
Police Tero vs Chiangrai United kicked off at 12:30 on Saturday 4 May 2024 at Boonyachinda Stadium.
What was the final score in Police Tero vs Chiangrai United?
Police Tero 0 - 0 Chiangrai United.
Where is Police Tero vs Chiangrai United being played?
The match is being played at Boonyachinda Stadium.
What competition is Police Tero vs Chiangrai United part of?
Police Tero vs Chiangrai United is a Regular Season - 27 fixture in the Thai League 1 (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Police Tero vs Chiangrai United?
Our statistical model gives Police Tero a 33% chance of winning, Chiangrai United a 38% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Chiangrai United the favourite.
Will both teams score in Police Tero vs Chiangrai United?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Police Tero and Chiangrai United will score (BTTS).
Will Police Tero vs Chiangrai United have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%.
What is the head-to-head record between Police Tero and Chiangrai United?
Record (5 meetings): Police Tero 3W | Draws 1 | Chiangrai United 1W.
What form are Police Tero and Chiangrai United in?
Police Tero (all comps): 1W-2D-7L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 2.60 | L5 L-L-D-W-L. Chiangrai United (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-L-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Police Tero's attack rating (0.75) and Chiangrai United's defence rating (0.91), the model arrives at 1.15 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Chiangrai United's attack (0.89x) against Police Tero's defence (1.15x) — and the away total comes out at 1.25.
These ratings are built from 56/56 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.7%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.8%), 0-1 (9.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Chiangrai United Win
33%
3.01
29%
3.51
38%
2.61
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.4%
Away win
1 – 0
10.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.15
Police Tero xG
Total xG
2.40
1.25
Chiangrai United xG
3.01
33%
Home win
3.51
29%
Draw
2.61
38%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.03
51%
BTTS No
1.97
Clean Sheet
29%
3.50
32%
3.15
Win to Nil
9%
10.55
12%
8.22
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.1 | 11.4 | 7.1 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.4 | 13.0 | 8.2 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.0 | 7.5 | 4.7 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.3 | 2.9 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Police Tero vs Chiangrai United?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.7%.
How many goals are Police Tero and Chiangrai United expected to score?
The model projects 1.15 expected goals for Police Tero and 1.25 for Chiangrai United, a combined total of 2.40.
How confident is the prediction model for Police Tero vs Chiangrai United?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Police Tero come into this having played 56 games, going 17W 16D 23L for 1.20 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-D-W-L. The sample for Police Tero is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Chiangrai United sit at 1.36 PPG from 56 outings (20W 16D 20L), a run that reads L-L-L-W-W across their last five. The sample for Chiangrai United is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.20 PPG for Police Tero against 1.36 for Chiangrai United. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Police Tero's home form reads 10W 10D 8L across 28 games on their own ground, a 1.43 PPG return.
Away from home, Chiangrai United have taken 1.04 points per game from 28 outings (7W 8D 13L).
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Police Tero are averaging 1.32 goals scored and 1.86 conceded per game recently; Chiangrai United are on 1.30 scored and 1.30 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Police Tero have seen both teams score in 68% of their recent games; Chiangrai United in 66%.
Last 56 Results — Thai League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Police Tero
Blended
Chiangrai United
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Police Tero and Chiangrai United in coming into this match?
Police Tero have gone 17W 16D 23L in their last 56 games (1.20 PPG), while Chiangrai United have gone 20W 16D 20L in their last 56 (1.36 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Police Tero at home or Chiangrai United away?
Police Tero's home record (1.43 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Police Tero at home: 1.43 PPG; Chiangrai United away: 1.04 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 6 times since October 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Thai League 1. It has been a while since the last meeting — 4 May 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Police Tero have gone 2W 1D 0L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Chiangrai United — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Police Tero
2
Draws
1
Chiangrai United
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Police Tero and Chiangrai United?
From 6 meetings on record, Police Tero have won 3, Chiangrai United have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Police Tero and Chiangrai United last play each other?
They last met on 4 May 2024, when Police Tero 0-0 Chiangrai United.
Who has won more matches between Police Tero and Chiangrai United?
Police Tero have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Police Tero are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 39% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 18% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Chiangrai United are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 64% for Police Tero, 68% for Chiangrai United — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 57% for Police Tero and 64% for Chiangrai United. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 36% and 21% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Police Tero home games / Chiangrai United away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Police Tero play Chiangrai United?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 64% of Police Tero's games and 68% of Chiangrai United's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Police Tero vs Chiangrai United usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 57% of Police Tero's matches and 64% of Chiangrai United's.
Do Police Tero and Chiangrai United tend to score early?
Police Tero have had a goal before half-time in 64% of their recent matches, Chiangrai United in 79% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Police Tero's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Boonyachinda Stadium, Regular Season - 27, as Police Tero and Chiangrai United drew 0-0 in the Thai League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Police Tero 1.15 xG and Chiangrai United 1.25 xG, a combined 2.40. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Police Tero fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Chiangrai United landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Police Tero attack 0.75 / defence 1.15 against Chiangrai United attack 0.89 / defence 0.91, drawn from 56/56 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Police Tero 33% | Draw 29% | Chiangrai United 38%, with Chiangrai United to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 70% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Police Tero 62%, Chiangrai United 55%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 67%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Police Tero's trading profile (56 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did not.
Chiangrai United's trading profile (56 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 66% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Police Tero 1.20 PPG, Chiangrai United 1.36 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Police Tero (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.29 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.43 average — tighter than their form line. Chiangrai United (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.04 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.57 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.