Uthai Thani 3-1 Trat FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Uthai Thani at 51%, yet other data sources diverge — this Uthai Thani vs Trat FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Uthai Thani Province Stadium plays host to Uthai Thani versus Trat FC in Thai League 1, Regular Season - 27. Kick-off: Friday 3 May 2024 at 13:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Uthai Thani have collected 1.00 PPG across 10 Thai League 1 outings this season: 2W 4D 4L. Last five: D L W L W. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Uthai Thani, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Uthai Thani Province Stadium, Uthai Thani have gone 2W 6D 2L this season (10 games, 1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Trat FC's overall Thai League 1 record this term: 2W 2D 6L from 10 games (0.80 PPG). Last five: W L L D W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 2.00. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Trat FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Trat FC's away record: 1W 1D 8L from 10 road trips in Thai League 1 this season (0.40 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 2.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.00 vs 0.80 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — Uthai Thani register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant games, Trat FC in 70%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 1 meetings: Uthai Thani 1W, Trat FC 0W, 0D.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 5.0 goals per game across 1 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 10 Dec 2023, ended 3–2 with Uthai Thani winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 5.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Uthai Thani goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (26 games, 12 at home): they score before half-time in 58% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 42%; they fail to score in 31% of games.
Trat FC goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (26 games, 12 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 46%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Uthai Thani 58% and Trat FC 69% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Uthai Thani 54% | Trat FC 69%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Uthai Thani 1.63 xG and Trat FC 1.01 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Uthai Thani attack 0.819 / defence 1.122 | Trat FC attack 0.739 / defence 1.188. League average goals — home 1.672 / away 1.218. Data: 26 Uthai Thani games / 26 Trat FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Uthai Thani 51% | Draw 26% | Trat FC 23%. Fair-value odds: Uthai Thani 1.96 | Draw 3.85 | Trat FC 4.35. Uthai Thani hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.64. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.64 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Uthai Thani as the most likely outcome at 51% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Uthai Thani if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.64 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 49% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though form averaging only 3.0 goals per game points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 51% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Uthai Thani 70% | Trat FC 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Uthai Thani vs Trat FC | Competition: Thai League 1, Regular Season - 27 | Venue: Uthai Thani Province Stadium • Kick-off: Friday 3 May 2024, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Uthai Thani 51% | Draw 26% | Trat FC 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% | BTTS 51% | xG Uthai Thani 1.63 / Trat FC 1.01 • Poisson strength factors: Uthai Thani attack 0.819 / def 1.122 | Trat FC attack 0.739 / def 1.188 | league avg home 1.672 / away 1.218 • Poisson stance: Uthai Thani (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.63
Uthai Thani xG
Expected Goals
1.01
Trat FC xG
51%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Uthai Thani vs Trat FC kick off?
Uthai Thani vs Trat FC kicked off at 13:00 on Friday 3 May 2024 at Uthai Thani Province Stadium.
What was the final score in Uthai Thani vs Trat FC?
Uthai Thani 3 - 1 Trat FC.
Where is Uthai Thani vs Trat FC being played?
The match is being played at Uthai Thani Province Stadium.
What competition is Uthai Thani vs Trat FC part of?
Uthai Thani vs Trat FC is a Regular Season - 27 fixture in the Thai League 1 (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Uthai Thani vs Trat FC?
Our statistical model gives Uthai Thani a 51% chance of winning, Trat FC a 23% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Uthai Thani the favourite.
Will both teams score in Uthai Thani vs Trat FC?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Uthai Thani and Trat FC will score (BTTS).
Will Uthai Thani vs Trat FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between Uthai Thani and Trat FC?
Record (1 meetings): Uthai Thani 1W | Draws 0 | Trat FC 0W.
What form are Uthai Thani and Trat FC in?
Uthai Thani (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.70 | L5 D-L-W-L-W. Trat FC (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 2.00 | L5 W-L-L-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Uthai Thani's attacking strength (0.82x league average) is weighed against Trat FC's defensive record (1.19x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.63. Flip it around — Trat FC's attack (0.74x) against Uthai Thani's defence (1.12x) — and the away total comes out at 1.01.
These ratings are built from 26/26 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.3%. Close behind: 1-0 (10.1%), 2-1 (9.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Uthai Thani Win
51%
1.95
26%
3.91
23%
4.33
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.6%
Home win
2 – 1
9.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.63
Uthai Thani xG
Total xG
2.64
1.01
Trat FC xG
1.95
51%
Home win
3.91
26%
Draw
4.33
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.94
49%
BTTS No
2.06
Clean Sheet
36%
2.75
20%
5.08
Win to Nil
19%
5.35
5%
22.01
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.2 | 7.2 | 3.7 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.6 | 11.8 | 5.9 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.5 | 9.6 | 4.8 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.1 | 5.2 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.1 | 2.1 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Uthai Thani vs Trat FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.3%.
How many goals are Uthai Thani and Trat FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.63 expected goals for Uthai Thani and 1.01 for Trat FC, a combined total of 2.64.
How confident is the prediction model for Uthai Thani vs Trat FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 26 outings, Uthai Thani have picked up 1.12 PPG on a 7W 8D 11L record — D-L-W-L-W across the most recent five. The sample for Uthai Thani is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Trat FC's form line: 6W 7D 13L from 26 games, 0.96 PPG, last five W-L-L-D-W. The sample for Trat FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.12 PPG for Uthai Thani against 0.96 for Trat FC. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Uthai Thani have posted 1.25 PPG from 12 outings (3W 6D 3L).
On the road, Trat FC have gone 1W 2D 9L from 12 away games — 0.42 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 0.96 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Trat FC's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Uthai Thani come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Uthai Thani are averaging 1.31 goals scored and 1.85 conceded per game recently; Trat FC are on 1.35 scored and 1.96 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Trat FC in 69%.
Last 26 Results — Thai League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Uthai Thani
Blended
Trat FC
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Uthai Thani and Trat FC in coming into this match?
Uthai Thani have gone 7W 8D 11L in their last 26 games (1.12 PPG), while Trat FC have gone 6W 7D 13L in their last 26 (0.96 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Uthai Thani at home or Trat FC away?
Uthai Thani's home record (1.25 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Uthai Thani at home: 1.25 PPG; Trat FC away: 0.42 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 2 times since December 2023 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Thai League 1. It has been a while since the last meeting — 3 May 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
2
Uthai Thani
0
Draws
0
Trat FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Uthai Thani and Trat FC?
From 2 meetings on record, Uthai Thani have won 2, Trat FC have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Uthai Thani and Trat FC last play each other?
They last met on 3 May 2024, when Uthai Thani 3-1 Trat FC.
Who has won more matches between Uthai Thani and Trat FC?
Uthai Thani have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Uthai Thani see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches.
Trat FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Uthai Thani 58%, Trat FC 58% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 33% (Uthai Thani) and 67% (Trat FC).
On the defensive side: Trat FC in 42%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Uthai Thani home games / Trat FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Uthai Thani play Trat FC?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 58% of Uthai Thani's games and 58% of Trat FC's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Uthai Thani vs Trat FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Uthai Thani's recent games and 67% of Trat FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Uthai Thani and Trat FC tend to score early?
Uthai Thani have had a goal before half-time in 58% of their recent matches, Trat FC in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Uthai Thani cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Trat FC.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Uthai Thani beat Trat FC 3-1 at Uthai Thani Province Stadium, Regular Season - 27, in the Thai League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Uthai Thani 1.63 xG and Trat FC 1.01 xG, a combined 2.64. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Uthai Thani beat their projection by 1.4 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Uthai Thani attack 0.82 / defence 1.12 against Trat FC attack 0.74 / defence 1.19, drawn from 26/26 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Uthai Thani 51% | Draw 26% | Trat FC 23%, with Uthai Thani to win its most likely call at 51%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. Over 3.5 was 27% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Uthai Thani 54%, Trat FC 69%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 63%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Uthai Thani's trading profile (26 games, 12 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
Trat FC's trading profile (26 games, 12 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 69% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Uthai Thani 1.12 PPG, Trat FC 0.96 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Uthai Thani win broke the near-deadlock. Uthai Thani (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.25 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.