Pattani vs Chiangrai United – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates Pattani at 35%, yet in-form Chiangrai United provide a compelling counter-argument — this Pattani vs Chiangrai United fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Thai League 1 clash, Regular Season - 10 as Pattani welcome Chiangrai United to Rainbow Stadium. Kick-off is set for Friday 27 November 2026 at 12:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Thai League 1 games this season, Pattani have gone 0W 1D 0L from 1 outings — a 1.00 PPG return. Last five: D. They are averaging 0.00 goals per game and conceding 0.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 1 games (100%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Pattani have played only a handful of Thai League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Chiangrai United stand at 5W 3D 2L from 10 Thai League 1 matches — 1.80 PPG. Last five: W W D W W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 0.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.60 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Chiangrai United have played only a handful of Thai League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Chiangrai United's form when playing away from home: 2W 5D 3L across 10 road games this term (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.10 is notably below their overall 1.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Form points away from home here. Chiangrai United's 1.80 PPG return is 0.80 points per game ahead of Pattani's 1.00 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Pattani 1.02 xG and Chiangrai United 0.96 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Pattani attack 0.710 / defence 0.992 | Chiangrai United attack 1.055 / defence 1.003. League average goals — home 1.438 / away 0.918. Pattani's attack strength of 0.710 is below the league average — the 1.02 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 1 Pattani games / 31 Chiangrai United games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Pattani 35% | Draw 33% | Chiangrai United 32%. Fair-value odds: Pattani 2.86 | Draw 3.03 | Chiangrai United 3.12. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 32% | BTTS probability 40% | Total xG 1.98. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 68% probability — total xG of 1.98 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 40% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Pattani at 35% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Chiangrai United (1.80 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 33% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Pattani offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 1.98 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 32% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 1.7 goals per game.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (1 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Pattani vs Chiangrai United | Competition: Thai League 1, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: Rainbow Stadium • Kick-off: Friday 27 Nov 2026, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Pattani 35% | Draw 33% | Chiangrai United 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 32% | BTTS 40% | xG Pattani 1.02 / Chiangrai United 0.96 • Poisson strength factors: Pattani attack 0.710 / def 0.992 | Chiangrai United attack 1.055 / def 1.003 | league avg home 1.438 / away 0.918 • Poisson stance: Pattani (35%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.02
Pattani xG
Expected Goals
0.96
Chiangrai United xG
40%
BTTS
60%
Over 1.5
32%
Over 2.5
14%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Pattani vs Chiangrai United kick off?
Pattani vs Chiangrai United is scheduled to kick off at 12:00 on Friday 27 November 2026 at Rainbow Stadium.
Where is Pattani vs Chiangrai United being played?
The match is being played at Rainbow Stadium.
What competition is Pattani vs Chiangrai United part of?
Pattani vs Chiangrai United is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the Thai League 1 (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Pattani vs Chiangrai United?
Our statistical model gives Pattani a 35% chance of winning, Chiangrai United a 32% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Pattani the favourite.
Will both teams score in Pattani vs Chiangrai United?
Our model estimates a 40% probability that both Pattani and Chiangrai United will score (BTTS).
Will Pattani vs Chiangrai United have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 32%.
What is the head-to-head record between Pattani and Chiangrai United?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Pattani and Chiangrai United in?
Pattani (all comps): 0W-1D-0L in 1 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.00 / GA 0.00 | L5 D. Chiangrai United (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 0.60 | L5 W-W-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Pattani's attack rating (0.71) and Chiangrai United's defence rating (1.00), the model arrives at 1.02 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Chiangrai United's attack versus Pattani's defence, projects 0.96 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 1/31 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.5%. Close behind: 1-1 (15.3%), 1-0 (12.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 43% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Pattani Win
35%
2.83
33%
3.05
32%
3.13
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.1%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
13.8%
Draw
1 – 1
13.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.02
Pattani xG
Total xG
1.98
0.96
Chiangrai United xG
2.83
35%
Home win
3.05
33%
Draw
3.13
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
59%
Over 1.5
1.69
41%
Under 1.5
2.44
32%
Over 2.5
3.12
68%
Under 2.5
1.47
14%
Over 3.5
7.14
86%
Under 3.5
1.16
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
40%
BTTS Yes
2.47
60%
BTTS No
1.68
Clean Sheet
38%
2.61
36%
2.78
Win to Nil
14%
7.40
11%
8.71
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.8 | 13.2 | 6.3 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.1 | 13.5 | 6.5 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.2 | 6.9 | 3.3 | 1.1 | 0.3 | – |
| 3 | 2.5 | 2.4 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Pattani vs Chiangrai United?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.5%.
How many goals are Pattani and Chiangrai United expected to score?
The model projects 1.02 expected goals for Pattani and 0.96 for Chiangrai United, a combined total of 1.98.
How confident is the prediction model for Pattani vs Chiangrai United?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 35%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Pattani's recent record stands at 0W 1D 0L from 1 games, a 1.00 PPG return, with D in the last five. It's still early in the season for Pattani, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Chiangrai United, meanwhile, have gone 1W 0D 0L across 1 games — 3.00 PPG, with W in their last five. It's still early in the season for Chiangrai United, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours Chiangrai United by 2.00 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Pattani heading into this one.
The Goals Picture
Pattani are averaging 0.00 goals scored and 0.00 conceded per game recently; Chiangrai United are on 1.00 scored and 0.00 conceded. Both sides have been difficult to break down recently — a combination that often points to a tighter, lower-scoring game than the average fixture.
On BTTS specifically: Pattani have seen both teams score in 0% of their recent games; Chiangrai United in 0%.
Defensively: Pattani have kept a clean sheet in 100% of their games; Chiangrai United in 100% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 1 Results — Thai League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Pattani
Early Season
Chiangrai United
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Pattani and Chiangrai United in coming into this match?
Pattani have gone 0W 1D 0L in their last 1 games (1.00 PPG), while Chiangrai United have gone 1W 0D 0L in their last 1 (3.00 PPG).
Have Pattani or Chiangrai United been keeping clean sheets recently?
Pattani have kept a clean sheet in 100% of their recent games, Chiangrai United in 100%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Pattani home games / Chiangrai United away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Pattani play Chiangrai United?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 0% of Pattani's recent matches and 0% of Chiangrai United's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Pattani vs Chiangrai United usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 0% of Pattani's recent games and 0% of Chiangrai United's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Pattani and Chiangrai United tend to score early?
Pattani have had a goal before half-time in 0% of their recent matches, Chiangrai United in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.