Nong Bua Pitchaya 1-0 Police Tero – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Nong Bua Pitchaya at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this Nong Bua Pitchaya vs Police Tero fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Thai League 1 clash, Regular Season - 5 as Nong Bua Pitchaya welcome Police Tero to Pitchaya Stadium. Kick-off is set for Saturday 2 October 2021 at 13:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Nong Bua Pitchaya stand at 1W 0D 2L from 3 Thai League 1 matches — 1.00 PPG. Last five: W L L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.33 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 3 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 33% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. Nong Bua Pitchaya have played only a handful of Thai League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Across all Thai League 1 games this season, Police Tero have recorded 0W 2D 2L from 4 outings — 0.50 PPG. Last five: D L L D. Their scoring rate of 1.25 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 75% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. Police Tero have played only a handful of Thai League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Police Tero away from home this season: 0W 1D 2L from 3 away games — 0.33 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.33 goals scored and 2.33 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 67% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Nong Bua Pitchaya carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.50 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.00 vs 0.50. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
Trading Patterns
Nong Bua Pitchaya in-play and half-time data (3 games): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games; they fail to score in 33% of games.
Police Tero in-play and half-time data (3 games): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games; they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Nong Bua Pitchaya 33% versus Police Tero 67%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Nong Bua Pitchaya 33% | Police Tero 33%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Nong Bua Pitchaya 1.40 xG and Police Tero 1.23 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Nong Bua Pitchaya attack 0.848 / defence 0.968 | Police Tero attack 0.894 / defence 1.409. League average goals — home 1.170 / away 1.419. Police Tero bring a strong defensive rating of 1.409 — this is suppressing Nong Bua Pitchaya's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 3 Nong Bua Pitchaya games / 4 Police Tero games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Nong Bua Pitchaya 38% | Draw 33% | Police Tero 30%. Fair-value odds: Nong Bua Pitchaya 2.63 | Draw 3.03 | Police Tero 3.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.63. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.63 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Nong Bua Pitchaya as the most likely outcome at 38% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 33% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Nong Bua Pitchaya offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.63 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 49% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though form averaging only 3.0 goals per game points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 57% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Nong Bua Pitchaya 33% | Police Tero 67%.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Nong Bua Pitchaya vs Police Tero | Competition: Thai League 1, Regular Season - 5 | Venue: Pitchaya Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 2 Oct 2021, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Nong Bua Pitchaya 38% | Draw 33% | Police Tero 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% | BTTS 57% | xG Nong Bua Pitchaya 1.40 / Police Tero 1.23 • Poisson strength factors: Nong Bua Pitchaya attack 0.848 / def 0.968 | Police Tero attack 0.894 / def 1.409 | league avg home 1.170 / away 1.419 • Poisson stance: Nong Bua Pitchaya (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.40
Nong Bua Pitchaya xG
Expected Goals
1.23
Police Tero xG
57%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Nong Bua Pitchaya vs Police Tero kick off?
Nong Bua Pitchaya vs Police Tero kicked off at 13:00 on Saturday 2 October 2021 at Pitchaya Stadium.
What was the final score in Nong Bua Pitchaya vs Police Tero?
Nong Bua Pitchaya 1 - 0 Police Tero.
Where is Nong Bua Pitchaya vs Police Tero being played?
The match is being played at Pitchaya Stadium.
What competition is Nong Bua Pitchaya vs Police Tero part of?
Nong Bua Pitchaya vs Police Tero is a Regular Season - 5 fixture in the Thai League 1 (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Nong Bua Pitchaya vs Police Tero?
Our statistical model gives Nong Bua Pitchaya a 38% chance of winning, Police Tero a 30% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Nong Bua Pitchaya the favourite.
Will both teams score in Nong Bua Pitchaya vs Police Tero?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Nong Bua Pitchaya and Police Tero will score (BTTS).
Will Nong Bua Pitchaya vs Police Tero have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between Nong Bua Pitchaya and Police Tero?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Nong Bua Pitchaya and Police Tero in?
Nong Bua Pitchaya (all comps): 1W-0D-2L in 3 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.33 | L5 W-L-L. Police Tero (all comps): 0W-2D-2L in 4 | 0.50 PPG | GF 1.25 / GA 2.00 | L5 D-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Nong Bua Pitchaya's attack at 0.85x the league average against Police Tero's defence at 1.41x — combine the two and it projects 1.40 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Police Tero's attack versus Nong Bua Pitchaya's defence, projects 1.23 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 3/4 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (8.9%), 2-1 (8.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Nong Bua Pitchaya Win
38%
2.66
33%
3.06
30%
3.37
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.1%
Home win
0 – 1
8.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.40
Nong Bua Pitchaya xG
Total xG
2.63
1.23
Police Tero xG
2.66
38%
Home win
3.06
33%
Draw
3.37
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.77
43%
BTTS No
2.30
Clean Sheet
29%
3.41
25%
4.05
Win to Nil
11%
9.08
7%
13.64
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.2 | 8.9 | 5.5 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.1 | 12.4 | 7.6 | 3.1 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.1 | 8.7 | 5.3 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.3 | 4.0 | 2.5 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.4 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Nong Bua Pitchaya vs Police Tero?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.0%.
How many goals are Nong Bua Pitchaya and Police Tero expected to score?
The model projects 1.40 expected goals for Nong Bua Pitchaya and 1.23 for Police Tero, a combined total of 2.63.
How confident is the prediction model for Nong Bua Pitchaya vs Police Tero?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Nong Bua Pitchaya come into this having played 3 games, going 1W 0D 2L for 1.00 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-L. It's still early in the season for Nong Bua Pitchaya, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Police Tero sit at 0.33 PPG from 3 outings (0W 1D 2L), a run that reads L-L-D across their last five. It's still early in the season for Police Tero, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Nong Bua Pitchaya carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.67 PPG clear of Police Tero — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Goals in Recent Form
Nong Bua Pitchaya are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game recently; Police Tero are on 0.67 scored and 1.67 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Police Tero in 67%.
Last 3 Results — Thai League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Nong Bua Pitchaya
Early Season
Police Tero
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Nong Bua Pitchaya and Police Tero in coming into this match?
Nong Bua Pitchaya have gone 1W 0D 2L in their last 3 games (1.00 PPG), while Police Tero have gone 0W 1D 2L in their last 3 (0.33 PPG).
Have Nong Bua Pitchaya or Police Tero been keeping clean sheets recently?
Nong Bua Pitchaya have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Police Tero in 0%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Thai League 1. It has been a while since the last meeting — 2 April 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear current trend here: Police Tero have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
Nong Bua Pitchaya's record when hosting Police Tero specifically: 1W 0D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Nong Bua Pitchaya
1
Draws
2
Police Tero
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Nong Bua Pitchaya and Police Tero?
From 4 meetings on record, Nong Bua Pitchaya have won 1, Police Tero have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Nong Bua Pitchaya and Police Tero last play each other?
They last met on 2 April 2023, when Nong Bua Pitchaya 1-2 Police Tero.
Who has won more matches between Nong Bua Pitchaya and Police Tero?
Police Tero have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Nong Bua Pitchaya are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Police Tero are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Nong Bua Pitchaya 33%, Police Tero 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 33% for Nong Bua Pitchaya and 33% for Police Tero.
On the defensive side: Nong Bua Pitchaya keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Nong Bua Pitchaya have failed to score in 33% of games; Police Tero in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Nong Bua Pitchaya home games / Police Tero away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Nong Bua Pitchaya play Police Tero?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 33% of Nong Bua Pitchaya's recent matches and 67% of Police Tero's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Nong Bua Pitchaya vs Police Tero usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Nong Bua Pitchaya's recent games and 33% of Police Tero's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Nong Bua Pitchaya and Police Tero tend to score early?
Nong Bua Pitchaya have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Police Tero in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Nong Bua Pitchaya edge out Police Tero 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Nong Bua Pitchaya beat Police Tero 1-0 at Pitchaya Stadium, Regular Season - 5, in the Thai League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Nong Bua Pitchaya 1.40 xG and Police Tero 1.23 xG, a combined 2.63. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Police Tero landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Nong Bua Pitchaya attack 0.85 / defence 0.97 against Police Tero attack 0.89 / defence 1.41, drawn from 3/4 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Nong Bua Pitchaya 38% | Draw 33% | Police Tero 30%, with Nong Bua Pitchaya to win its most likely call at 38%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 77% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 33% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Nong Bua Pitchaya 33%, Police Tero 33%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Nong Bua Pitchaya's trading profile (3 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 33% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one.
Police Tero's trading profile (3 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Nong Bua Pitchaya arrived the stronger side — 1.00 PPG against 0.33. Form held, and they took the win. Nong Bua Pitchaya conceded 0 against a 1.33 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.