Nong Bua Pitchaya 2-1 Nakhon Pathom – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Nakhon Pathom at 51% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Nong Bua Pitchaya vs Nakhon Pathom encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Nakhon Pathom make the trip to Pitchaya Stadium to face Nong Bua Pitchaya in Thai League 1, Regular Season - 3. The match kicks off on Saturday 24 August 2024 at 13:00 UTC.
Form
Nong Bua Pitchaya (all games): 0W 0D 2L across 2 Thai League 1 fixtures this term — 0.00 PPG. Last five: L L. They are averaging 0.00 goals per game and conceding 4.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 4.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Nong Bua Pitchaya have played only a handful of Thai League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Nakhon Pathom have collected 1.00 PPG across 10 Thai League 1 outings this season: 3W 1D 6L. Last five: D L L W L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Nakhon Pathom have played only a handful of Thai League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
When travelling in Thai League 1 this season, Nakhon Pathom have posted 3W 3D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.20 PPG. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Nakhon Pathom are 1.00 PPG clear of Nong Bua Pitchaya in recent Thai League 1 fixtures (1.00 vs 0.00). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Nong Bua Pitchaya 1.33 xG and Nakhon Pathom 1.95 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Nong Bua Pitchaya attack 0.700 / defence 1.428 | Nakhon Pathom attack 1.100 / defence 1.074. League average goals — home 1.763 / away 1.241. Nong Bua Pitchaya's attack strength of 0.700 is below the league average — the 1.33 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 2 Nong Bua Pitchaya games / 32 Nakhon Pathom games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Nong Bua Pitchaya 25% | Draw 24% | Nakhon Pathom 51%. Fair-value odds: Nong Bua Pitchaya 4.00 | Draw 4.17 | Nakhon Pathom 1.96. Nakhon Pathom hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 64% | BTTS probability 64% | Total xG 3.28. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 64% — the 3.28 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 64% reflects that both xG figures (1.33 / 1.95) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Nakhon Pathom are the pick at 51% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 24% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Nakhon Pathom if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.28 combined xG gives a 64% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (2 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Nong Bua Pitchaya vs Nakhon Pathom | Competition: Thai League 1, Regular Season - 3 | Venue: Pitchaya Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 24 Aug 2024, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Nong Bua Pitchaya 25% | Draw 24% | Nakhon Pathom 51% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 64% | BTTS 64% | xG Nong Bua Pitchaya 1.33 / Nakhon Pathom 1.95 • Poisson strength factors: Nong Bua Pitchaya attack 0.700 / def 1.428 | Nakhon Pathom attack 1.100 / def 1.074 | league avg home 1.763 / away 1.241 • Poisson stance: Nakhon Pathom (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.33
Nong Bua Pitchaya xG
Expected Goals
1.95
Nakhon Pathom xG
64%
BTTS
85%
Over 1.5
64%
Over 2.5
41%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Nong Bua Pitchaya vs Nakhon Pathom kick off?
Nong Bua Pitchaya vs Nakhon Pathom kicked off at 13:00 on Saturday 24 August 2024 at Pitchaya Stadium.
What was the final score in Nong Bua Pitchaya vs Nakhon Pathom?
Nong Bua Pitchaya 2 - 1 Nakhon Pathom.
Where is Nong Bua Pitchaya vs Nakhon Pathom being played?
The match is being played at Pitchaya Stadium.
What competition is Nong Bua Pitchaya vs Nakhon Pathom part of?
Nong Bua Pitchaya vs Nakhon Pathom is a Regular Season - 3 fixture in the Thai League 1 (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Nong Bua Pitchaya vs Nakhon Pathom?
Our statistical model gives Nong Bua Pitchaya a 25% chance of winning, Nakhon Pathom a 51% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Nakhon Pathom the favourite.
Will both teams score in Nong Bua Pitchaya vs Nakhon Pathom?
Our model estimates a 64% probability that both Nong Bua Pitchaya and Nakhon Pathom will score (BTTS).
Will Nong Bua Pitchaya vs Nakhon Pathom have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 64%.
What is the head-to-head record between Nong Bua Pitchaya and Nakhon Pathom?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Nong Bua Pitchaya and Nakhon Pathom in?
Nong Bua Pitchaya (all comps): 0W-0D-2L in 2 | 0.00 PPG | GF 0.00 / GA 4.00 | L5 L-L. Nakhon Pathom (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 2.00 | L5 D-L-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Nong Bua Pitchaya's attacking strength (0.70x league average) is weighed against Nakhon Pathom's defensive record (1.07x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.33. Flip it around — Nakhon Pathom's attack (1.10x) against Nong Bua Pitchaya's defence (1.43x) — and the away total comes out at 1.95.
The sample (2/32 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.0%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.5%), 0-2 (7.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Nakhon Pathom Win
25%
4.00
24%
4.17
51%
1.96
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.5%
Away win
0 – 1
7.4%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.33
Nong Bua Pitchaya xG
Total xG
3.28
1.95
Nakhon Pathom xG
4.00
25%
Home win
4.17
24%
Draw
1.96
51%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
64%
Over 2.5
1.56
36%
Under 2.5
2.78
41%
Over 3.5
2.44
59%
Under 3.5
1.69
23%
Over 4.5
4.35
77%
Under 4.5
1.30
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
64%
BTTS Yes
1.56
36%
BTTS No
2.78
Clean Sheet
14%
7.02
27%
3.77
Win to Nil
4%
28.05
14%
7.38
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.8 | 7.4 | 7.2 | 4.7 | 2.3 | 0.9 |
| 1 | 5.0 | 9.8 | 9.5 | 6.2 | 3.0 | 1.2 |
| 2 | 3.3 | 6.5 | 6.3 | 4.1 | 2.0 | 0.8 |
| 3 | 1.5 | 2.9 | 2.8 | 1.8 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Nong Bua Pitchaya vs Nakhon Pathom?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.0%.
How many goals are Nong Bua Pitchaya and Nakhon Pathom expected to score?
The model projects 1.33 expected goals for Nong Bua Pitchaya and 1.95 for Nakhon Pathom, a combined total of 3.28.
How confident is the prediction model for Nong Bua Pitchaya vs Nakhon Pathom?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 2 outings, Nong Bua Pitchaya have picked up 0.00 PPG on a 0W 0D 2L record — L-L across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Nong Bua Pitchaya, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Nakhon Pathom's form line: 1W 0D 1L from 2 games, 1.50 PPG, last five W-L. It's still early in the season for Nakhon Pathom, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, Nakhon Pathom are the form team by 1.50 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Nong Bua Pitchaya.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Nong Bua Pitchaya are averaging 0.00 goals scored and 4.00 conceded per game recently; Nakhon Pathom are on 2.00 scored and 2.00 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Nong Bua Pitchaya have seen both teams score in 0% of their recent games; Nakhon Pathom in 100%.
Last 2 Results — Thai League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Nong Bua Pitchaya
Early Season
Nakhon Pathom
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Nong Bua Pitchaya and Nakhon Pathom in coming into this match?
Nong Bua Pitchaya have gone 0W 0D 2L in their last 2 games (0.00 PPG), while Nakhon Pathom have gone 1W 0D 1L in their last 2 (1.50 PPG).
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 2 times since August 2024 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Thai League 1. It has been a while since the last meeting — 14 January 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Nong Bua Pitchaya
1
Draws
0
Nakhon Pathom
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Nong Bua Pitchaya and Nakhon Pathom?
From 2 meetings on record, Nong Bua Pitchaya have won 1, Nakhon Pathom have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Nong Bua Pitchaya and Nakhon Pathom last play each other?
They last met on 14 January 2025, when Nakhon Pathom 1-1 Nong Bua Pitchaya.
Who has won more matches between Nong Bua Pitchaya and Nakhon Pathom?
Nong Bua Pitchaya have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Nong Bua Pitchaya home games / Nakhon Pathom away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Nong Bua Pitchaya play Nakhon Pathom?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 0% of Nong Bua Pitchaya's recent matches and 100% of Nakhon Pathom's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Nong Bua Pitchaya vs Nakhon Pathom usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 100% of Nong Bua Pitchaya's matches and 100% of Nakhon Pathom's.
Do Nong Bua Pitchaya and Nakhon Pathom tend to score early?
Nong Bua Pitchaya have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Nakhon Pathom in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Nong Bua Pitchaya defy the odds to beat Nakhon Pathom 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Nong Bua Pitchaya beat Nakhon Pathom 2-1 at Pitchaya Stadium, Regular Season - 3, in the Thai League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Nong Bua Pitchaya 1.33 xG and Nakhon Pathom 1.95 xG, a combined 3.28. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Nakhon Pathom landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Nong Bua Pitchaya attack 0.70 / defence 1.43 against Nakhon Pathom attack 1.10 / defence 1.07, drawn from 2/32 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Nong Bua Pitchaya 25% | Draw 24% | Nakhon Pathom 51%, with Nakhon Pathom to win its most likely call at 51%. Instead the game produced a Nong Bua Pitchaya win, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 64%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 85% and landed. Over 3.5 was 41% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 64% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 100% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Nong Bua Pitchaya 100%, Nakhon Pathom 100%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Form vs Result
On form, Nakhon Pathom arrived the stronger side — 1.50 PPG against 0.00. Form was overturned, with Nong Bua Pitchaya winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Nong Bua Pitchaya scored 2 against a 0.00 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 4.00 average — tighter than their form line. Nakhon Pathom managed 1 against a 2.00 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.