Nong Bua Pitchaya 1-1 BG Pathum United – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Nong Bua Pitchaya at 40% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Nong Bua Pitchaya vs BG Pathum United encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Thai League 1 encounter, Regular Season - 20 sees BG Pathum United travel to Pitchaya Stadium to take on Nong Bua Pitchaya. The game is scheduled for Saturday 1 February 2025, 11:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Nong Bua Pitchaya stand at 3W 2D 5L from 10 Thai League 1 matches — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L W D D L. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.90 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Nong Bua Pitchaya, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Nong Bua Pitchaya's home record at Pitchaya Stadium: 5W 2D 3L from 10 Thai League 1 appearances (1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.10 — Nong Bua Pitchaya are significantly better at Pitchaya Stadium than their overall form suggests.
BG Pathum United — All Games: 4W 2D 4L from 10 Thai League 1 fixtures this season — 1.40 PPG. Last five: L D L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for BG Pathum United, so this record blends games from this season and last.
BG Pathum United's away record: 3W 4D 3L from 10 road trips in Thai League 1 this season (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Nong Bua Pitchaya 1.10 PPG, BG Pathum United 1.40 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
Head to Head
The historical ledger comes down firmly in favour of Nong Bua Pitchaya: 3 wins from 5 previous clashes against 0 for BG Pathum United, with 2 draws across those contests.
The 5 previous meetings have averaged 2.6 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 14 Sep 2024, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The historical record gives Nong Bua Pitchaya a meaningful edge here — 3 wins from 5 meetings is the kind of ledger that should not be discounted when the form picture is inconclusive. Even away from home, the visitors have struggled to impose themselves in this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Nong Bua Pitchaya in-play and half-time data (19 games, 10 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 47%.
BG Pathum United in-play and half-time data (19 games, 10 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Nong Bua Pitchaya 68% and BG Pathum United 63% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Nong Bua Pitchaya 68% | BG Pathum United 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Nong Bua Pitchaya 1.41 xG and BG Pathum United 1.23 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Nong Bua Pitchaya attack 0.911 / defence 1.107 | BG Pathum United attack 0.940 / defence 0.868. League average goals — home 1.776 / away 1.180. Data: 19 Nong Bua Pitchaya games / 49 BG Pathum United games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Nong Bua Pitchaya 40% | Draw 28% | BG Pathum United 32%. Fair-value odds: Nong Bua Pitchaya 2.50 | Draw 3.57 | BG Pathum United 3.12. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.63. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.63 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Nong Bua Pitchaya at 40% — marginal model lean. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Nong Bua Pitchaya offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.63 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 49% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though form averaging only 3.2 goals per game points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 54% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Nong Bua Pitchaya 50% | BG Pathum United 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Nong Bua Pitchaya vs BG Pathum United | Competition: Thai League 1, Regular Season - 20 | Venue: Pitchaya Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 1 Feb 2025, 11:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Nong Bua Pitchaya 40% | Draw 28% | BG Pathum United 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% | BTTS 54% | xG Nong Bua Pitchaya 1.41 / BG Pathum United 1.23 • Poisson strength factors: Nong Bua Pitchaya attack 0.911 / def 1.107 | BG Pathum United attack 0.940 / def 0.868 | league avg home 1.776 / away 1.180 • Poisson stance: Nong Bua Pitchaya (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.41
Nong Bua Pitchaya xG
Expected Goals
1.23
BG Pathum United xG
54%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Nong Bua Pitchaya vs BG Pathum United kick off?
Nong Bua Pitchaya vs BG Pathum United kicked off at 11:00 on Saturday 1 February 2025 at Pitchaya Stadium.
What was the final score in Nong Bua Pitchaya vs BG Pathum United?
Nong Bua Pitchaya 1 - 1 BG Pathum United.
Where is Nong Bua Pitchaya vs BG Pathum United being played?
The match is being played at Pitchaya Stadium.
What competition is Nong Bua Pitchaya vs BG Pathum United part of?
Nong Bua Pitchaya vs BG Pathum United is a Regular Season - 20 fixture in the Thai League 1 (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Nong Bua Pitchaya vs BG Pathum United?
Our statistical model gives Nong Bua Pitchaya a 40% chance of winning, BG Pathum United a 32% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Nong Bua Pitchaya the favourite.
Will both teams score in Nong Bua Pitchaya vs BG Pathum United?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Nong Bua Pitchaya and BG Pathum United will score (BTTS).
Will Nong Bua Pitchaya vs BG Pathum United have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between Nong Bua Pitchaya and BG Pathum United?
Record (5 meetings): Nong Bua Pitchaya 3W | Draws 2 | BG Pathum United 0W.
What form are Nong Bua Pitchaya and BG Pathum United in?
Nong Bua Pitchaya (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-W-D-D-L. BG Pathum United (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-D-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Nong Bua Pitchaya's attack rating (0.91) and BG Pathum United's defence rating (0.87), the model arrives at 1.41 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, BG Pathum United's attack versus Nong Bua Pitchaya's defence, projects 1.23 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 19/49 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.0%. Close behind: 0-0 (8.8%), 2-1 (8.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Nong Bua Pitchaya Win
40%
2.49
28%
3.56
32%
3.14
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.1%
Home win
0 – 1
8.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.41
Nong Bua Pitchaya xG
Total xG
2.63
1.23
BG Pathum United xG
2.49
40%
Home win
3.56
28%
Draw
3.14
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.84
46%
BTTS No
2.19
Clean Sheet
29%
3.41
25%
4.08
Win to Nil
12%
8.52
8%
12.80
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.2 | 8.8 | 5.4 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.1 | 12.4 | 7.6 | 3.1 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.1 | 8.7 | 5.3 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.3 | 4.1 | 2.5 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.4 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Nong Bua Pitchaya vs BG Pathum United?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.0%.
How many goals are Nong Bua Pitchaya and BG Pathum United expected to score?
The model projects 1.41 expected goals for Nong Bua Pitchaya and 1.23 for BG Pathum United, a combined total of 2.63.
How confident is the prediction model for Nong Bua Pitchaya vs BG Pathum United?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Nong Bua Pitchaya come into this having played 19 games, going 5W 5D 9L for 1.05 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-D-D-L. The sample for Nong Bua Pitchaya is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, BG Pathum United sit at 1.53 PPG from 19 outings (8W 5D 6L), a run that reads L-D-L-L-W across their last five. The sample for BG Pathum United is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
BG Pathum United carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.48 PPG clear of Nong Bua Pitchaya — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Nong Bua Pitchaya's home form reads 5W 2D 3L across 10 games on their own ground, a 1.70 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.05 PPG overall — Nong Bua Pitchaya are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, BG Pathum United have taken 1.30 points per game from 10 outings (3W 4D 3L).
The Goals Picture
Nong Bua Pitchaya are averaging 1.58 goals scored and 2.05 conceded per game recently; BG Pathum United are on 1.53 scored and 1.21 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Nong Bua Pitchaya have seen both teams score in 68% of their recent games; BG Pathum United in 63%.
Last 19 Results — Thai League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Nong Bua Pitchaya
Blended
BG Pathum United
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Nong Bua Pitchaya and BG Pathum United in coming into this match?
Nong Bua Pitchaya have gone 5W 5D 9L in their last 19 games (1.05 PPG), while BG Pathum United have gone 8W 5D 6L in their last 19 (1.53 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Nong Bua Pitchaya at home or BG Pathum United away?
Nong Bua Pitchaya's home record (1.70 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Nong Bua Pitchaya at home: 1.70 PPG; BG Pathum United away: 1.30 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Nong Bua Pitchaya and BG Pathum United runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Thai League 1. It has been a while since the last meeting — 1 February 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
Nong Bua Pitchaya's record when hosting BG Pathum United specifically: 2W 1D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Nong Bua Pitchaya
3
Draws
0
BG Pathum United
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Nong Bua Pitchaya and BG Pathum United?
From 6 meetings on record, Nong Bua Pitchaya have won 3, BG Pathum United have won 0, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Nong Bua Pitchaya and BG Pathum United last play each other?
They last met on 1 February 2025, when Nong Bua Pitchaya 1-1 BG Pathum United.
Who has won more matches between Nong Bua Pitchaya and BG Pathum United?
Nong Bua Pitchaya have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Nong Bua Pitchaya are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time.
BG Pathum United are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Nong Bua Pitchaya 50%, BG Pathum United 70% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 60% for Nong Bua Pitchaya and 60% for BG Pathum United. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 50% and 40% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Nong Bua Pitchaya have failed to score in 40% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Nong Bua Pitchaya home games / BG Pathum United away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Nong Bua Pitchaya play BG Pathum United?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of Nong Bua Pitchaya's games and 70% of BG Pathum United's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Nong Bua Pitchaya vs BG Pathum United usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 60% of Nong Bua Pitchaya's matches and 60% of BG Pathum United's.
Do Nong Bua Pitchaya and BG Pathum United tend to score early?
Nong Bua Pitchaya have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, BG Pathum United in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Nong Bua Pitchaya and BG Pathum United share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Pitchaya Stadium, Regular Season - 20, as Nong Bua Pitchaya and BG Pathum United drew 1-1 in the Thai League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Nong Bua Pitchaya 1.41 xG and BG Pathum United 1.23 xG, a combined 2.63. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Nong Bua Pitchaya attack 0.91 / defence 1.11 against BG Pathum United attack 0.94 / defence 0.87, drawn from 19/49 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Nong Bua Pitchaya 40% | Draw 28% | BG Pathum United 32%, with Nong Bua Pitchaya to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Nong Bua Pitchaya 68%, BG Pathum United 53%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 66%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Nong Bua Pitchaya's trading profile (19 games, 10 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did.
BG Pathum United's trading profile (19 games, 10 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, BG Pathum United arrived the stronger side — 1.53 PPG against 1.05. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Nong Bua Pitchaya (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.90 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.