Nakhon Ratchasima FC 2-2 Sukhothai FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Nakhon Ratchasima FC at 43%, yet other data sources diverge — this Nakhon Ratchasima FC vs Sukhothai FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Sukhothai FC make the trip to His Majesty the King's 80th Birthday Anniversary 5th December 2007 Stadium to face Nakhon Ratchasima FC in Thai League 1, Regular Season - 23. The match kicks off on Friday 21 February 2025 at 12:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Nakhon Ratchasima FC have collected 1.00 PPG across 10 Thai League 1 outings this season: 2W 4D 4L. Last five: W D L D D. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 2.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.20 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Nakhon Ratchasima FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Nakhon Ratchasima FC's home record at His Majesty the King's 80th Birthday Anniversary 5th December 2007 Stadium: 3W 4D 3L from 10 Thai League 1 appearances (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Sukhothai FC (all games): 3W 3D 4L across 10 Thai League 1 outings this term — 1.20 points per game. Last five: W L L L D. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Sukhothai FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Sukhothai FC's away record: 1W 3D 6L from 10 road trips in Thai League 1 this season (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.60 is notably below their overall 1.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.00 for Nakhon Ratchasima FC, 1.20 for Sukhothai FC — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 3 meetings: Nakhon Ratchasima FC 1W, Sukhothai FC 1W, 1D.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 5 Oct 2024, ended 0–1 with Sukhothai FC winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
Nakhon Ratchasima FC goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (22 games, 11 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 82% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (home games).
Sukhothai FC goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (22 games, 11 at away): they score before half-time in 91% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 50%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Nakhon Ratchasima FC 68% and Sukhothai FC 54% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Nakhon Ratchasima FC 54% | Sukhothai FC 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Nakhon Ratchasima FC 1.58 xG and Sukhothai FC 1.33 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Nakhon Ratchasima FC attack 0.896 / defence 1.468 | Sukhothai FC attack 0.750 / defence 1.046. League average goals — home 1.691 / away 1.207. Data: 22 Nakhon Ratchasima FC games / 52 Sukhothai FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Nakhon Ratchasima FC 43% | Draw 26% | Sukhothai FC 31%. Fair-value odds: Nakhon Ratchasima FC 2.33 | Draw 3.85 | Sukhothai FC 3.23. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 2.92. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.92 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Nakhon Ratchasima FC as the most likely outcome at 43% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Nakhon Ratchasima FC if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.92 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 56% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 59% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Nakhon Ratchasima FC 80% | Sukhothai FC 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Nakhon Ratchasima FC vs Sukhothai FC | Competition: Thai League 1, Regular Season - 23 | Venue: His Majesty the King's 80th Birthday Anniversary 5th December 2007 Stadium • Kick-off: Friday 21 Feb 2025, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Nakhon Ratchasima FC 43% | Draw 26% | Sukhothai FC 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% | BTTS 59% | xG Nakhon Ratchasima FC 1.58 / Sukhothai FC 1.33 • Poisson strength factors: Nakhon Ratchasima FC attack 0.896 / def 1.468 | Sukhothai FC attack 0.750 / def 1.046 | league avg home 1.691 / away 1.207 • Poisson stance: Nakhon Ratchasima FC (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.58
Nakhon Ratchasima FC xG
Expected Goals
1.33
Sukhothai FC xG
59%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Nakhon Ratchasima FC vs Sukhothai FC kick off?
Nakhon Ratchasima FC vs Sukhothai FC kicked off at 12:00 on Friday 21 February 2025 at His Majesty the King's 80th Birthday Anniversary 5th December 2007 Stadium.
What was the final score in Nakhon Ratchasima FC vs Sukhothai FC?
Nakhon Ratchasima FC 2 - 2 Sukhothai FC.
Where is Nakhon Ratchasima FC vs Sukhothai FC being played?
The match is being played at His Majesty the King's 80th Birthday Anniversary 5th December 2007 Stadium.
What competition is Nakhon Ratchasima FC vs Sukhothai FC part of?
Nakhon Ratchasima FC vs Sukhothai FC is a Regular Season - 23 fixture in the Thai League 1 (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Nakhon Ratchasima FC vs Sukhothai FC?
Our statistical model gives Nakhon Ratchasima FC a 43% chance of winning, Sukhothai FC a 31% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Nakhon Ratchasima FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Nakhon Ratchasima FC vs Sukhothai FC?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both Nakhon Ratchasima FC and Sukhothai FC will score (BTTS).
Will Nakhon Ratchasima FC vs Sukhothai FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%.
What is the head-to-head record between Nakhon Ratchasima FC and Sukhothai FC?
Record (3 meetings): Nakhon Ratchasima FC 1W | Draws 1 | Sukhothai FC 1W.
What form are Nakhon Ratchasima FC and Sukhothai FC in?
Nakhon Ratchasima FC (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 2.20 | L5 W-D-L-D-D. Sukhothai FC (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-L-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Nakhon Ratchasima FC's attack rating (0.90) and Sukhothai FC's defence rating (1.05), the model arrives at 1.58 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Sukhothai FC's attack (0.75x) against Nakhon Ratchasima FC's defence (1.47x) — and the away total comes out at 1.33.
These ratings are built from 22/52 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.9%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.1%), 1-2 (7.6%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Nakhon Ratchasima FC Win
43%
2.35
26%
3.83
31%
3.20
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.4%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.1%
Home win
1 – 0
8.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.58
Nakhon Ratchasima FC xG
Total xG
2.92
1.33
Sukhothai FC xG
2.35
43%
Home win
3.83
26%
Draw
3.20
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.69
41%
BTTS No
2.46
Clean Sheet
26%
3.78
20%
4.88
Win to Nil
11%
8.87
6%
15.60
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.4 | 7.2 | 4.8 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 8.6 | 11.4 | 7.6 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.8 | 9.1 | 6.0 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.6 | 4.8 | 3.2 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.9 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Nakhon Ratchasima FC vs Sukhothai FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.9%.
How many goals are Nakhon Ratchasima FC and Sukhothai FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.58 expected goals for Nakhon Ratchasima FC and 1.33 for Sukhothai FC, a combined total of 2.92.
How confident is the prediction model for Nakhon Ratchasima FC vs Sukhothai FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Nakhon Ratchasima FC come into this having played 22 games, going 6W 9D 7L for 1.23 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-L-D-D. The sample for Nakhon Ratchasima FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Sukhothai FC sit at 1.32 PPG from 22 outings (8W 5D 9L), a run that reads W-L-L-L-D across their last five. The sample for Sukhothai FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.23 PPG for Nakhon Ratchasima FC against 1.32 for Sukhothai FC. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Nakhon Ratchasima FC's home form reads 4W 4D 3L across 11 games on their own ground, a 1.45 PPG return.
Away from home, Sukhothai FC have taken 0.64 points per game from 11 outings (1W 4D 6L). That's a step down from their 1.32 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Sukhothai FC's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Nakhon Ratchasima FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Nakhon Ratchasima FC are averaging 1.23 goals scored and 1.68 conceded per game recently; Sukhothai FC are on 1.45 scored and 1.64 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Nakhon Ratchasima FC have seen both teams score in 68% of their recent games.
Last 22 Results — Thai League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Nakhon Ratchasima FC
Blended
Sukhothai FC
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Nakhon Ratchasima FC and Sukhothai FC in coming into this match?
Nakhon Ratchasima FC have gone 6W 9D 7L in their last 22 games (1.23 PPG), while Sukhothai FC have gone 8W 5D 9L in their last 22 (1.32 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Nakhon Ratchasima FC at home or Sukhothai FC away?
Nakhon Ratchasima FC's home record (1.45 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Nakhon Ratchasima FC at home: 1.45 PPG; Sukhothai FC away: 0.64 PPG.
Have Nakhon Ratchasima FC or Sukhothai FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Nakhon Ratchasima FC have kept a clean sheet in 14% of their recent games, Sukhothai FC in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Thai League 1. They last met on 2 May 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Nakhon Ratchasima FC have gone 1W 2D 0L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Sukhothai FC — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Nakhon Ratchasima FC
2
Draws
2
Sukhothai FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Nakhon Ratchasima FC and Sukhothai FC?
From 6 meetings on record, Nakhon Ratchasima FC have won 2, Sukhothai FC have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Nakhon Ratchasima FC and Sukhothai FC last play each other?
They last met on 2 May 2026, when Nakhon Ratchasima FC 1-0 Sukhothai FC.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Nakhon Ratchasima FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 18% of those situations.
Sukhothai FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 91% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 27% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 82% for Nakhon Ratchasima FC, 54% for Sukhothai FC — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 64% (Nakhon Ratchasima FC) and 46% (Sukhothai FC).
On the defensive side: Sukhothai FC in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Nakhon Ratchasima FC home games / Sukhothai FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Nakhon Ratchasima FC play Sukhothai FC?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 82% of Nakhon Ratchasima FC's games and 54% of Sukhothai FC's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Nakhon Ratchasima FC vs Sukhothai FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 64% of Nakhon Ratchasima FC's recent games and 46% of Sukhothai FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Nakhon Ratchasima FC and Sukhothai FC tend to score early?
Nakhon Ratchasima FC have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, Sukhothai FC in 91% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Nakhon Ratchasima FC and Sukhothai FC share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Nakhon Ratchasima FC and Sukhothai FC finished level at 2-2 at His Majesty the King's 80th Birthday Anniversary 5th December 2007 Stadium, Regular Season - 23, in the Thai League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Nakhon Ratchasima FC 1.58 xG and Sukhothai FC 1.33 xG, a combined 2.92. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Nakhon Ratchasima FC attack 0.90 / defence 1.47 against Sukhothai FC attack 0.75 / defence 1.05, drawn from 22/52 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Nakhon Ratchasima FC 43% | Draw 26% | Sukhothai FC 31%, with Nakhon Ratchasima FC to win its most likely call at 43%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. Over 3.5 was 33% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Nakhon Ratchasima FC 54%, Sukhothai FC 54%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Nakhon Ratchasima FC's trading profile (22 games, 11 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did.
Sukhothai FC's trading profile (22 games, 11 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Nakhon Ratchasima FC 1.23 PPG, Sukhothai FC 1.32 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Sukhothai FC (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.82 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.