Nakhon Ratchasima FC 1-4 Chiangrai United – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Nakhon Ratchasima FC at 55%, yet other data sources diverge — this Nakhon Ratchasima FC vs Chiangrai United fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
His Majesty the King's 80th Birthday Anniversary 5th December 2007 Stadium plays host to Nakhon Ratchasima FC versus Chiangrai United in Thai League 1, Regular Season - 27. Kick-off: Saturday 29 March 2025 at 11:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Nakhon Ratchasima FC have collected 1.00 PPG across 10 Thai League 1 outings this season: 2W 4D 4L. Last five: D D L W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 2.40 conceded. However, 2.40 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Nakhon Ratchasima FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Nakhon Ratchasima FC's form when playing at home: 4W 3D 3L across 10 games at His Majesty the King's 80th Birthday Anniversary 5th December 2007 Stadium this term (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.00 — Nakhon Ratchasima FC are significantly better at His Majesty the King's 80th Birthday Anniversary 5th December 2007 Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Chiangrai United (all games): 4W 0D 6L across 10 Thai League 1 outings this term — 1.20 points per game. Last five: W L L L W. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. This season is still relatively young for Chiangrai United, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Chiangrai United away from home this season: 1W 0D 9L from 10 away games — 0.30 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 2.40 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 0.30 is notably below their overall 1.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.00 for Nakhon Ratchasima FC, 1.20 for Chiangrai United — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 5 meetings: Nakhon Ratchasima FC 3W, Chiangrai United 2W, 0D.
The 5 previous meetings have averaged 2.6 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 9 Nov 2024, ended 2–0 with Nakhon Ratchasima FC winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
Nakhon Ratchasima FC goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (26 games, 12 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 83% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
Chiangrai United goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (26 games, 12 at away): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 42% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Nakhon Ratchasima FC 69% versus Chiangrai United 27%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Nakhon Ratchasima FC 62% | Chiangrai United 38%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Nakhon Ratchasima FC 2.11 xG and Chiangrai United 1.35 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Nakhon Ratchasima FC attack 1.000 / defence 1.474 | Chiangrai United attack 0.802 / defence 1.270. League average goals — home 1.661 / away 1.145. Chiangrai United bring a strong defensive rating of 1.270 — this is suppressing Nakhon Ratchasima FC's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 26 Nakhon Ratchasima FC games / 56 Chiangrai United games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Nakhon Ratchasima FC 55% | Draw 21% | Chiangrai United 24%. Fair-value odds: Nakhon Ratchasima FC 1.82 | Draw 4.76 | Chiangrai United 4.17. The model has a clear lean to Nakhon Ratchasima FC (55%) — a 31pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 67% | BTTS probability 65% | Total xG 3.46. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 67% — a total xG of 3.46 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 65% reflects that both xG figures (2.11 / 1.35) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Nakhon Ratchasima FC as the most likely outcome at 55% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 21% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 3.46 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 67% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 65% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Nakhon Ratchasima FC 80% | Chiangrai United 30% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Nakhon Ratchasima FC vs Chiangrai United | Competition: Thai League 1, Regular Season - 27 | Venue: His Majesty the King's 80th Birthday Anniversary 5th December 2007 Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 29 Mar 2025, 11:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Nakhon Ratchasima FC 55% | Draw 21% | Chiangrai United 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 67% | BTTS 65% | xG Nakhon Ratchasima FC 2.11 / Chiangrai United 1.35 • Poisson strength factors: Nakhon Ratchasima FC attack 1.000 / def 1.474 | Chiangrai United attack 0.802 / def 1.270 | league avg home 1.661 / away 1.145 • Poisson stance: Nakhon Ratchasima FC (55%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.11
Nakhon Ratchasima FC xG
Expected Goals
1.35
Chiangrai United xG
65%
BTTS
86%
Over 1.5
67%
Over 2.5
46%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Nakhon Ratchasima FC vs Chiangrai United kick off?
Nakhon Ratchasima FC vs Chiangrai United kicked off at 11:00 on Saturday 29 March 2025 at His Majesty the King's 80th Birthday Anniversary 5th December 2007 Stadium.
What was the final score in Nakhon Ratchasima FC vs Chiangrai United?
Nakhon Ratchasima FC 1 - 4 Chiangrai United.
Where is Nakhon Ratchasima FC vs Chiangrai United being played?
The match is being played at His Majesty the King's 80th Birthday Anniversary 5th December 2007 Stadium.
What competition is Nakhon Ratchasima FC vs Chiangrai United part of?
Nakhon Ratchasima FC vs Chiangrai United is a Regular Season - 27 fixture in the Thai League 1 (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Nakhon Ratchasima FC vs Chiangrai United?
Our statistical model gives Nakhon Ratchasima FC a 55% chance of winning, Chiangrai United a 24% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making Nakhon Ratchasima FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Nakhon Ratchasima FC vs Chiangrai United?
Our model estimates a 65% probability that both Nakhon Ratchasima FC and Chiangrai United will score (BTTS).
Will Nakhon Ratchasima FC vs Chiangrai United have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 67%.
What is the head-to-head record between Nakhon Ratchasima FC and Chiangrai United?
Record (5 meetings): Nakhon Ratchasima FC 3W | Draws 0 | Chiangrai United 2W.
What form are Nakhon Ratchasima FC and Chiangrai United in?
Nakhon Ratchasima FC (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 2.40 | L5 D-D-L-W-L. Chiangrai United (all comps): 4W-0D-6L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.70 | L5 W-L-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Nakhon Ratchasima FC's attack at 1.00x the league average against Chiangrai United's defence at 1.27x — combine the two and it projects 2.11 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Chiangrai United's attack (0.80x) against Nakhon Ratchasima FC's defence (1.47x) — and the away total comes out at 1.35.
These ratings are built from 26/56 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 10.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.4%), 2-0 (7.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Nakhon Ratchasima FC Win
55%
1.83
21%
4.74
24%
4.13
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.4%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
8.9%
Draw
2 – 0
7.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.11
Nakhon Ratchasima FC xG
Total xG
3.46
1.35
Chiangrai United xG
1.83
55%
Home win
4.74
21%
Draw
4.13
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
86%
Over 1.5
1.16
14%
Under 1.5
7.14
67%
Over 2.5
1.49
33%
Under 2.5
3.03
46%
Over 3.5
2.17
54%
Under 3.5
1.85
27%
Over 4.5
3.70
73%
Under 4.5
1.37
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
65%
BTTS Yes
1.53
35%
BTTS No
2.88
Clean Sheet
26%
3.87
12%
8.24
Win to Nil
14%
7.08
3%
34.05
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.1 | 4.2 | 2.9 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 6.6 | 8.9 | 6.1 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 7.0 | 9.4 | 6.4 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 4.9 | 6.6 | 4.5 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 2.6 | 3.5 | 2.4 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.1 | 1.5 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Nakhon Ratchasima FC vs Chiangrai United?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.1%.
How many goals are Nakhon Ratchasima FC and Chiangrai United expected to score?
The model projects 2.11 expected goals for Nakhon Ratchasima FC and 1.35 for Chiangrai United, a combined total of 3.46.
How confident is the prediction model for Nakhon Ratchasima FC vs Chiangrai United?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 55%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Nakhon Ratchasima FC come into this having played 26 games, going 7W 10D 9L for 1.19 points per game. Their last five reads D-D-L-W-L. The sample for Nakhon Ratchasima FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Chiangrai United sit at 1.12 PPG from 26 outings (9W 2D 15L), a run that reads W-L-L-L-W across their last five. The sample for Chiangrai United is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.19 PPG for Nakhon Ratchasima FC against 1.12 for Chiangrai United. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Nakhon Ratchasima FC's home form reads 4W 5D 3L across 12 games on their own ground, a 1.42 PPG return.
Away from home, Chiangrai United have taken 0.25 points per game from 12 outings (1W 0D 11L). That's a step down from their 1.12 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Chiangrai United's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Nakhon Ratchasima FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Nakhon Ratchasima FC are averaging 1.31 goals scored and 1.88 conceded per game recently; Chiangrai United are on 0.88 scored and 1.65 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Nakhon Ratchasima FC have seen both teams score in 69% of their recent games; Chiangrai United in 27%.
Last 26 Results — Thai League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Nakhon Ratchasima FC
Blended
Chiangrai United
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Nakhon Ratchasima FC and Chiangrai United in coming into this match?
Nakhon Ratchasima FC have gone 7W 10D 9L in their last 26 games (1.19 PPG), while Chiangrai United have gone 9W 2D 15L in their last 26 (1.12 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Nakhon Ratchasima FC at home or Chiangrai United away?
Nakhon Ratchasima FC's home record (1.42 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Nakhon Ratchasima FC at home: 1.42 PPG; Chiangrai United away: 0.25 PPG.
Have Nakhon Ratchasima FC or Chiangrai United been keeping clean sheets recently?
Nakhon Ratchasima FC have kept a clean sheet in 12% of their recent games, Chiangrai United in 35%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 8 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Thai League 1. They last met on 13 March 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Chiangrai United won 1-4 on 29 Mar 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Nakhon Ratchasima FC have gone 2W 1D 1L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Chiangrai United — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
3
Nakhon Ratchasima FC
1
Draws
4
Chiangrai United
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Nakhon Ratchasima FC and Chiangrai United?
From 8 meetings on record, Nakhon Ratchasima FC have won 3, Chiangrai United have won 4, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Nakhon Ratchasima FC and Chiangrai United last play each other?
They last met on 13 March 2026, when Nakhon Ratchasima FC 1-1 Chiangrai United.
Who has won more matches between Nakhon Ratchasima FC and Chiangrai United?
Chiangrai United have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Nakhon Ratchasima FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Chiangrai United are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Nakhon Ratchasima FC 83%, Chiangrai United 33% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 67% (Nakhon Ratchasima FC) and 50% (Chiangrai United). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 50% and 25% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Chiangrai United in 58%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Nakhon Ratchasima FC home games / Chiangrai United away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Nakhon Ratchasima FC play Chiangrai United?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 83% of Nakhon Ratchasima FC's games and 33% of Chiangrai United's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Nakhon Ratchasima FC vs Chiangrai United usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of Nakhon Ratchasima FC's matches and 50% of Chiangrai United's.
Do Nakhon Ratchasima FC and Chiangrai United tend to score early?
Nakhon Ratchasima FC have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Chiangrai United in 83% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Chiangrai United run riot with a 1-4 hammering of Nakhon Ratchasima FC.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Chiangrai United beat Nakhon Ratchasima FC 1-4 at His Majesty the King's 80th Birthday Anniversary 5th December 2007 Stadium, Regular Season - 27, in the Thai League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Nakhon Ratchasima FC 2.11 xG and Chiangrai United 1.35 xG, a combined 3.46. The scoreboard read 1-4 for 5 actual goals. Nakhon Ratchasima FC fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Chiangrai United outscored their 1.35 projection by 2.6. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Nakhon Ratchasima FC attack 1.00 / defence 1.47 against Chiangrai United attack 0.80 / defence 1.27, drawn from 26/56 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Nakhon Ratchasima FC 55% | Draw 21% | Chiangrai United 24%, with Nakhon Ratchasima FC to win its most likely call at 55%. Instead the game produced a Chiangrai United win, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 67%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 86% and landed. Over 3.5 was 46% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 65% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Nakhon Ratchasima FC 62%, Chiangrai United 38%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Nakhon Ratchasima FC's trading profile (26 games, 12 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 69% of their matches — today it did.
Chiangrai United's trading profile (26 games, 12 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 27% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Nakhon Ratchasima FC 1.19 PPG, Chiangrai United 1.12 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Chiangrai United win broke the near-deadlock. Nakhon Ratchasima FC (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.92 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Chiangrai United (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 0.58 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 2.58 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.