Nakhon Ratchasima FC 1-0 BG Pathum United – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours BG Pathum United (45%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Nakhon Ratchasima FC face BG Pathum United.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
BG Pathum United make the trip to His Majesty the King's 80th Birthday Anniversary 5th December 2007 Stadium to face Nakhon Ratchasima FC in Thai League 1, Regular Season - 14. The match kicks off on Sunday 24 November 2024 at 12:00 UTC.
Form
Nakhon Ratchasima FC (all games): 2W 5D 3L across 10 Thai League 1 fixtures this term — 1.10 PPG. Last five: W L L D W. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Nakhon Ratchasima FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Nakhon Ratchasima FC's home record at His Majesty the King's 80th Birthday Anniversary 5th December 2007 Stadium: 2W 2D 1L from 5 Thai League 1 appearances (1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 100% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.10 — Nakhon Ratchasima FC are significantly better at His Majesty the King's 80th Birthday Anniversary 5th December 2007 Stadium than their overall form suggests.
BG Pathum United have collected 1.90 PPG across 10 Thai League 1 outings this season: 5W 4D 1L. Last five: D D W D W. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 1.30. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for BG Pathum United, so this record blends games from this season and last.
BG Pathum United's away record: 6W 3D 1L from 10 road trips in Thai League 1 this season (2.10 PPG). They are averaging 2.10 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. BG Pathum United are 0.80 PPG clear of Nakhon Ratchasima FC in recent Thai League 1 fixtures (1.90 vs 1.10). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — Nakhon Ratchasima FC register both teams scoring in 100% of relevant games, BG Pathum United in 80%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
Head-to-Head
The head-to-head ledger leans to BG Pathum United, who have claimed 3 wins from 4 meetings compared to 0 for the hosts, with 1 draws.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.5 goals per game across 4 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 8 Apr 2023, ended 2–5 with BG Pathum United winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. BG Pathum United have won 3 of 4 previous encounters, and at 3.5 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
Trading & In-Play
Nakhon Ratchasima FC — key trading statistics (12 games, 5 at home): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 100% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games).
BG Pathum United — key trading statistics (12 games, 5 at away): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in away games; they lead at the break 58% of the time; BTTS occurs in 80% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 80% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 42%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Nakhon Ratchasima FC 67% and BG Pathum United 75% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Nakhon Ratchasima FC 42% | BG Pathum United 67%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Nakhon Ratchasima FC 1.42 xG and BG Pathum United 1.83 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Nakhon Ratchasima FC attack 0.879 / defence 1.192 | BG Pathum United attack 1.342 / defence 0.923. League average goals — home 1.747 / away 1.144. BG Pathum United have an above-average attack strength of 1.342 — the away xG of 1.83 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 12 Nakhon Ratchasima FC games / 42 BG Pathum United games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Nakhon Ratchasima FC 27% | Draw 28% | BG Pathum United 45%. Fair-value odds: Nakhon Ratchasima FC 3.70 | Draw 3.57 | BG Pathum United 2.22. BG Pathum United hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 63% | BTTS probability 66% | Total xG 3.25. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 63% — the 3.25 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 66% reflects that both xG figures (1.42 / 1.83) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is BG Pathum United at 45% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on BG Pathum United if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 3.25 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 63% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.5 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 66% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Nakhon Ratchasima FC 100% | BG Pathum United 80% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Nakhon Ratchasima FC vs BG Pathum United | Competition: Thai League 1, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: His Majesty the King's 80th Birthday Anniversary 5th December 2007 Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 24 Nov 2024, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Nakhon Ratchasima FC 27% | Draw 28% | BG Pathum United 45% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 63% | BTTS 66% | xG Nakhon Ratchasima FC 1.42 / BG Pathum United 1.83 • Poisson strength factors: Nakhon Ratchasima FC attack 0.879 / def 1.192 | BG Pathum United attack 1.342 / def 0.923 | league avg home 1.747 / away 1.144 • Poisson stance: BG Pathum United (45%) — moderate lean
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
1.42
Nakhon Ratchasima FC xG
Expected Goals
1.83
BG Pathum United xG
66%
BTTS
86%
Over 1.5
63%
Over 2.5
41%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Nakhon Ratchasima FC vs BG Pathum United kick off?
Nakhon Ratchasima FC vs BG Pathum United kicked off at 12:00 on Sunday 24 November 2024 at His Majesty the King's 80th Birthday Anniversary 5th December 2007 Stadium.
What was the final score in Nakhon Ratchasima FC vs BG Pathum United?
Nakhon Ratchasima FC 1 - 0 BG Pathum United.
Where is Nakhon Ratchasima FC vs BG Pathum United being played?
The match is being played at His Majesty the King's 80th Birthday Anniversary 5th December 2007 Stadium.
What competition is Nakhon Ratchasima FC vs BG Pathum United part of?
Nakhon Ratchasima FC vs BG Pathum United is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the Thai League 1 (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Nakhon Ratchasima FC vs BG Pathum United?
Our statistical model gives Nakhon Ratchasima FC a 27% chance of winning, BG Pathum United a 45% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making BG Pathum United the favourite.
Will both teams score in Nakhon Ratchasima FC vs BG Pathum United?
Our model estimates a 66% probability that both Nakhon Ratchasima FC and BG Pathum United will score (BTTS).
Will Nakhon Ratchasima FC vs BG Pathum United have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 63%.
What is the head-to-head record between Nakhon Ratchasima FC and BG Pathum United?
Record (4 meetings): Nakhon Ratchasima FC 0W | Draws 1 | BG Pathum United 3W.
What form are Nakhon Ratchasima FC and BG Pathum United in?
Nakhon Ratchasima FC (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-L-L-D-W. BG Pathum United (all comps): 5W-4D-1L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-D-W-D-W.
What do the betting odds say about Nakhon Ratchasima FC vs BG Pathum United?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Nakhon Ratchasima FC's attack rating (0.88) and BG Pathum United's defence rating (0.92), the model arrives at 1.42 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — BG Pathum United's attack (1.34x) against Nakhon Ratchasima FC's defence (1.19x) — and the away total comes out at 1.83.
These ratings are built from 12/42 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.4%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.2%), 2-1 (7.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
BG Pathum United Win
27%
3.65
28%
3.60
45%
2.23
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.2%
Away win
0 – 1
7.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.42
Nakhon Ratchasima FC xG
Total xG
3.25
1.83
BG Pathum United xG
3.65
27%
Home win
3.60
28%
Draw
2.23
45%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
63%
Over 2.5
1.59
37%
Under 2.5
2.70
41%
Over 3.5
2.44
59%
Under 3.5
1.69
23%
Over 4.5
4.35
77%
Under 4.5
1.30
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
66%
BTTS Yes
1.51
34%
BTTS No
2.96
Clean Sheet
16%
6.24
24%
4.13
Win to Nil
4%
22.76
11%
9.21
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.9 | 7.1 | 6.5 | 4.0 | 1.8 | 0.7 |
| 1 | 5.5 | 10.1 | 9.2 | 5.6 | 2.6 | 0.9 |
| 2 | 3.9 | 7.1 | 6.5 | 4.0 | 1.8 | 0.7 |
| 3 | 1.8 | 3.4 | 3.1 | 1.9 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 1.2 | 1.1 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Nakhon Ratchasima FC vs BG Pathum United?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.4%.
How many goals are Nakhon Ratchasima FC and BG Pathum United expected to score?
The model projects 1.42 expected goals for Nakhon Ratchasima FC and 1.83 for BG Pathum United, a combined total of 3.25.
How confident is the prediction model for Nakhon Ratchasima FC vs BG Pathum United?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 12 outings, Nakhon Ratchasima FC have picked up 1.42 PPG on a 4W 5D 3L record — W-L-L-D-W across the most recent five. The sample for Nakhon Ratchasima FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
BG Pathum United's form line: 6W 4D 2L from 12 games, 1.83 PPG, last five D-D-W-D-W. The sample for BG Pathum United is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, BG Pathum United are the form team by 0.41 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Nakhon Ratchasima FC.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Nakhon Ratchasima FC have posted 1.60 PPG from 5 outings (2W 2D 1L).
On the road, BG Pathum United have gone 2W 3D 0L from 5 away games — 1.80 PPG when travelling.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Nakhon Ratchasima FC are averaging 1.17 goals scored and 1.25 conceded per game recently; BG Pathum United are on 1.83 scored and 1.25 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Nakhon Ratchasima FC have seen both teams score in 67% of their recent games; BG Pathum United in 75%.
Last 12 Results — Thai League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Nakhon Ratchasima FC
Blended
BG Pathum United
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Nakhon Ratchasima FC and BG Pathum United in coming into this match?
Nakhon Ratchasima FC have gone 4W 5D 3L in their last 12 games (1.42 PPG), while BG Pathum United have gone 6W 4D 2L in their last 12 (1.83 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Nakhon Ratchasima FC at home or BG Pathum United away?
BG Pathum United's away record (1.80 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Nakhon Ratchasima FC at home: 1.60 PPG; BG Pathum United away: 1.80 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 8 times since November 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Thai League 1. They last met on 25 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
There's a clear current trend here: BG Pathum United have taken the last 3 head-to-head results.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: BG Pathum United won 0-4 on 5 Nov 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Nakhon Ratchasima FC have gone 1W 1D 2L from 4 meetings on their own ground against BG Pathum United — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
1
Nakhon Ratchasima FC
1
Draws
6
BG Pathum United
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Nakhon Ratchasima FC and BG Pathum United?
From 8 meetings on record, Nakhon Ratchasima FC have won 1, BG Pathum United have won 6, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Nakhon Ratchasima FC and BG Pathum United last play each other?
They last met on 25 April 2026, when BG Pathum United 1-0 Nakhon Ratchasima FC.
Who has won more matches between Nakhon Ratchasima FC and BG Pathum United?
BG Pathum United have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Nakhon Ratchasima FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
BG Pathum United are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 80% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 40% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 100% for Nakhon Ratchasima FC, 80% for BG Pathum United — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 60% for Nakhon Ratchasima FC and 80% for BG Pathum United. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 20% and 40% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Nakhon Ratchasima FC home games / BG Pathum United away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Nakhon Ratchasima FC play BG Pathum United?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 100% of Nakhon Ratchasima FC's games and 80% of BG Pathum United's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Nakhon Ratchasima FC vs BG Pathum United usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 60% of Nakhon Ratchasima FC's matches and 80% of BG Pathum United's.
Do Nakhon Ratchasima FC and BG Pathum United tend to score early?
Nakhon Ratchasima FC have had a goal before half-time in 60% of their recent matches, BG Pathum United in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Nakhon Ratchasima FC defy the odds to beat BG Pathum United 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Nakhon Ratchasima FC beat BG Pathum United 1-0 at His Majesty the King's 80th Birthday Anniversary 5th December 2007 Stadium, Regular Season - 14, in the Thai League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Nakhon Ratchasima FC 1.42 xG and BG Pathum United 1.83 xG, a combined 3.25. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. BG Pathum United landed 1.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Nakhon Ratchasima FC attack 0.88 / defence 1.19 against BG Pathum United attack 1.34 / defence 0.92, drawn from 12/42 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Nakhon Ratchasima FC 27% | Draw 28% | BG Pathum United 45%, with BG Pathum United to win its most likely call at 45%. The actual Nakhon Ratchasima FC win had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 63%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 86% and missed. Over 3.5 was 41% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 66% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Nakhon Ratchasima FC 42%, BG Pathum United 67%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 71%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Nakhon Ratchasima FC's trading profile (12 games, 5 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did not.
BG Pathum United's trading profile (12 games, 5 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 75% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, BG Pathum United arrived the stronger side — 1.83 PPG against 1.42. Form was overturned, with Nakhon Ratchasima FC winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Nakhon Ratchasima FC (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.40 average — tighter than their form line. BG Pathum United (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.00 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.