Chiangrai United 0-2 Nakhon Ratchasima FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Chiangrai United at 50%, yet other data sources diverge — this Chiangrai United vs Nakhon Ratchasima FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Chiangrai United and Nakhon Ratchasima FC meet at Singha Chiangrai Stadium in Thai League 1, Regular Season - 13. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 9 November 2024 at 11:00 UTC.
Current Form
Chiangrai United's overall Thai League 1 record this term: 2W 1D 7L from 10 games (0.70 PPG). Last five: L W L L L. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 2.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.10 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Chiangrai United, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Chiangrai United have posted 3W 2D 5L at Singha Chiangrai Stadium — 1.10 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Nakhon Ratchasima FC have collected 1.10 PPG across 10 Thai League 1 outings this season: 2W 5D 3L. Last five: L W L L D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Nakhon Ratchasima FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Nakhon Ratchasima FC's form when playing away from home: 1W 3D 2L across 6 road games this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 0.67 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 0.70 vs 1.10 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 4 head-to-head meetings have produced 2 wins for Chiangrai United, 2 for Nakhon Ratchasima FC and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.8 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 18 Mar 2023, ended 1–3 with Nakhon Ratchasima FC winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Chiangrai United — key trading statistics (11 games, 6 at home): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in home games; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they fail to score in 46% of games.
Nakhon Ratchasima FC — key trading statistics (11 games, 6 at away): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Chiangrai United 36% versus Nakhon Ratchasima FC 73%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Chiangrai United 46% | Nakhon Ratchasima FC 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Chiangrai United 1.49 xG and Nakhon Ratchasima FC 0.82 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Chiangrai United attack 0.867 / defence 1.115 | Nakhon Ratchasima FC attack 0.653 / defence 0.962. League average goals — home 1.782 / away 1.123. Data: 40 Chiangrai United games / 11 Nakhon Ratchasima FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Chiangrai United 50% | Draw 32% | Nakhon Ratchasima FC 18%. Fair-value odds: Chiangrai United 2.00 | Draw 3.12 | Nakhon Ratchasima FC 5.56. Chiangrai United hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (32%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.30. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.30 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Chiangrai United are the pick at 50% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 32% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Chiangrai United if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.30 combined xG gives a 40% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though H2H averaging only 2.8 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 46%. Form rates corroborate: Chiangrai United 40% | Nakhon Ratchasima FC 50% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Chiangrai United vs Nakhon Ratchasima FC | Competition: Thai League 1, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: Singha Chiangrai Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 9 Nov 2024, 11:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Chiangrai United 50% | Draw 32% | Nakhon Ratchasima FC 18% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 40% | BTTS 46% | xG Chiangrai United 1.49 / Nakhon Ratchasima FC 0.82 • Poisson strength factors: Chiangrai United attack 0.867 / def 1.115 | Nakhon Ratchasima FC attack 0.653 / def 0.962 | league avg home 1.782 / away 1.123 • Poisson stance: Chiangrai United (50%) — moderate lean
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
1.49
Chiangrai United xG
Expected Goals
0.82
Nakhon Ratchasima FC xG
46%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Chiangrai United vs Nakhon Ratchasima FC kick off?
Chiangrai United vs Nakhon Ratchasima FC kicked off at 11:00 on Saturday 9 November 2024 at Singha Chiangrai Stadium.
What was the final score in Chiangrai United vs Nakhon Ratchasima FC?
Chiangrai United 0 - 2 Nakhon Ratchasima FC.
Where is Chiangrai United vs Nakhon Ratchasima FC being played?
The match is being played at Singha Chiangrai Stadium.
What competition is Chiangrai United vs Nakhon Ratchasima FC part of?
Chiangrai United vs Nakhon Ratchasima FC is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the Thai League 1 (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Chiangrai United vs Nakhon Ratchasima FC?
Our statistical model gives Chiangrai United a 50% chance of winning, Nakhon Ratchasima FC a 18% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Chiangrai United the favourite.
Will both teams score in Chiangrai United vs Nakhon Ratchasima FC?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Chiangrai United and Nakhon Ratchasima FC will score (BTTS).
Will Chiangrai United vs Nakhon Ratchasima FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 40%.
What is the head-to-head record between Chiangrai United and Nakhon Ratchasima FC?
Record (4 meetings): Chiangrai United 2W | Draws 0 | Nakhon Ratchasima FC 2W.
What form are Chiangrai United and Nakhon Ratchasima FC in?
Chiangrai United (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 2.10 | L5 L-W-L-L-L. Nakhon Ratchasima FC (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-W-L-L-D.
What do the betting odds say about Chiangrai United vs Nakhon Ratchasima FC?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Chiangrai United's attacking strength (0.87x league average) is weighed against Nakhon Ratchasima FC's defensive record (0.96x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.49. Flip it around — Nakhon Ratchasima FC's attack (0.65x) against Chiangrai United's defence (1.11x) — and the away total comes out at 0.82.
These ratings are built from 40/11 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.7%. Close behind: 1-0 (13.3%), 0-0 (11.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Chiangrai United Win
50%
1.98
32%
3.17
18%
5.55
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.9%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.1%
Draw
2 – 0
11.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.49
Chiangrai United xG
Total xG
2.30
0.82
Nakhon Ratchasima FC xG
1.98
50%
Home win
3.17
32%
Draw
5.55
18%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.18
54%
BTTS No
1.85
Clean Sheet
44%
2.26
23%
4.42
Win to Nil
22%
4.49
4%
24.51
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.0 | 8.2 | 3.3 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 14.9 | 12.1 | 5.0 | 1.4 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 11.0 | 9.0 | 3.7 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 5.5 | 4.5 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.0 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Chiangrai United vs Nakhon Ratchasima FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.7%.
How many goals are Chiangrai United and Nakhon Ratchasima FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.49 expected goals for Chiangrai United and 0.82 for Nakhon Ratchasima FC, a combined total of 2.30.
How confident is the prediction model for Chiangrai United vs Nakhon Ratchasima FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 11 outings, Chiangrai United have picked up 0.64 PPG on a 2W 1D 8L record — L-W-L-L-L across the most recent five. The sample for Chiangrai United is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Nakhon Ratchasima FC's form line: 3W 5D 3L from 11 games, 1.27 PPG, last five L-W-L-L-D. The sample for Nakhon Ratchasima FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Nakhon Ratchasima FC are the form team by 0.63 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Chiangrai United.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Chiangrai United have posted 1.17 PPG from 6 outings (2W 1D 3L). That's noticeably better than their 0.64 PPG overall — Chiangrai United are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Nakhon Ratchasima FC have gone 1W 3D 2L from 6 away games — 1.00 PPG when travelling.
Attack vs Defence
Chiangrai United are averaging 0.82 goals scored and 2.18 conceded per game recently; Nakhon Ratchasima FC are on 1.09 scored and 1.36 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Nakhon Ratchasima FC in 73%.
Last 11 Results — Thai League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Chiangrai United
Blended
Nakhon Ratchasima FC
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Chiangrai United and Nakhon Ratchasima FC in coming into this match?
Chiangrai United have gone 2W 1D 8L in their last 11 games (0.64 PPG), while Nakhon Ratchasima FC have gone 3W 5D 3L in their last 11 (1.27 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Chiangrai United at home or Nakhon Ratchasima FC away?
Chiangrai United's home record (1.17 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Chiangrai United at home: 1.17 PPG; Nakhon Ratchasima FC away: 1.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 8 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Thai League 1. They last met on 13 March 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Chiangrai United won 1-4 on 29 Mar 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Chiangrai United have gone 3W 0D 1L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Nakhon Ratchasima FC — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
4
Chiangrai United
1
Draws
3
Nakhon Ratchasima FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Chiangrai United and Nakhon Ratchasima FC?
From 8 meetings on record, Chiangrai United have won 4, Nakhon Ratchasima FC have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Chiangrai United and Nakhon Ratchasima FC last play each other?
They last met on 13 March 2026, when Nakhon Ratchasima FC 1-1 Chiangrai United.
Who has won more matches between Chiangrai United and Nakhon Ratchasima FC?
Chiangrai United have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Chiangrai United are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Nakhon Ratchasima FC see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Chiangrai United 50%, Nakhon Ratchasima FC 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Chiangrai United) and 33% (Nakhon Ratchasima FC).
On the defensive side: Chiangrai United keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Nakhon Ratchasima FC in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Chiangrai United home games / Nakhon Ratchasima FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Chiangrai United play Nakhon Ratchasima FC?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Chiangrai United's recent matches and 50% of Nakhon Ratchasima FC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Chiangrai United vs Nakhon Ratchasima FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Chiangrai United's recent games and 33% of Nakhon Ratchasima FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Chiangrai United and Nakhon Ratchasima FC tend to score early?
Chiangrai United have had a goal before half-time in 83% of their recent matches, Nakhon Ratchasima FC in 50% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Nakhon Ratchasima FC cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Chiangrai United.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Nakhon Ratchasima FC beat Chiangrai United 0-2 at Singha Chiangrai Stadium, Regular Season - 13, in the Thai League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Chiangrai United 1.49 xG and Nakhon Ratchasima FC 0.82 xG, a combined 2.30. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Chiangrai United fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Nakhon Ratchasima FC outscored their 0.82 projection by 1.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Chiangrai United attack 0.87 / defence 1.11 against Nakhon Ratchasima FC attack 0.65 / defence 0.96, drawn from 40/11 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Chiangrai United 50% | Draw 32% | Nakhon Ratchasima FC 18%, with Chiangrai United to win its most likely call at 50%. Instead the game produced a Nakhon Ratchasima FC win, an outcome the model had rated at just 18% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Chiangrai United 46%, Nakhon Ratchasima FC 46%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Chiangrai United's trading profile (11 games, 6 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 36% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 46% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Nakhon Ratchasima FC's trading profile (11 games, 6 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 73% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Nakhon Ratchasima FC arrived the stronger side — 1.27 PPG against 0.64. Form held, and they took the win. Chiangrai United (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.33 scoring average — below par going forward. Nakhon Ratchasima FC (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.67 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.33 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.