Nakhon Pathom 1-1 Nong Bua Pitchaya – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Nakhon Pathom at 47%, yet other data sources diverge — this Nakhon Pathom vs Nong Bua Pitchaya fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Nong Bua Pitchaya make the trip to Nakhon Pathom Municipality Sport School Stadium to face Nakhon Pathom in Thai League 1, Regular Season - 17. The match kicks off on Tuesday 14 January 2025 at 12:00 UTC.
Current Form
Nakhon Pathom's overall Thai League 1 record this term: 2W 2D 6L from 10 games (0.80 PPG). Last five: L D L W W. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Nakhon Pathom, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Nakhon Pathom Municipality Sport School Stadium, Nakhon Pathom have gone 2W 1D 7L this season (10 games, 0.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.70 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game.
Nong Bua Pitchaya (all games): 4W 0D 6L across 10 Thai League 1 outings this term — 1.20 points per game. Last five: W L L L W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.20 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Conceding 2.30 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Nong Bua Pitchaya, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Nong Bua Pitchaya's away record: 0W 2D 5L from 7 road trips in Thai League 1 this season (0.29 PPG). Away from home they average 1.29 goals scored and 2.86 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 86% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.29 is notably below their overall 1.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 0.80 PPG for Nakhon Pathom against 1.20 for Nong Bua Pitchaya. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Nakhon Pathom lead 0W to 1W over the last 1 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.0 goals per game across 1 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 24 Aug 2024, ended 1–2 with Nong Bua Pitchaya winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Nakhon Pathom — key trading statistics (16 games, 6 at home): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in home games; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
Nong Bua Pitchaya — key trading statistics (16 games, 6 at away): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 80% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 100% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 83% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 56%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Nakhon Pathom 56% and Nong Bua Pitchaya 69% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Nakhon Pathom 75% | Nong Bua Pitchaya 75%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Nakhon Pathom 1.80 xG and Nong Bua Pitchaya 1.36 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Nakhon Pathom attack 0.759 / defence 1.247 | Nong Bua Pitchaya attack 0.932 / defence 1.436. League average goals — home 1.654 / away 1.174. Nakhon Pathom's attack strength of 0.759 is below the league average — the 1.80 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Nong Bua Pitchaya bring a strong defensive rating of 1.436 — this is suppressing Nakhon Pathom's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 46 Nakhon Pathom games / 16 Nong Bua Pitchaya games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Nakhon Pathom 47% | Draw 25% | Nong Bua Pitchaya 28%. Fair-value odds: Nakhon Pathom 2.13 | Draw 4.00 | Nong Bua Pitchaya 3.57. Nakhon Pathom hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 61% | BTTS probability 63% | Total xG 3.17. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 61% — the 3.17 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 63% reflects that both xG figures (1.80 / 1.36) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Nakhon Pathom are the pick at 47% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Nakhon Pathom if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.17 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 61% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.3 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 63% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Nakhon Pathom 50% | Nong Bua Pitchaya 86% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Nakhon Pathom vs Nong Bua Pitchaya | Competition: Thai League 1, Regular Season - 17 | Venue: Nakhon Pathom Municipality Sport School Stadium • Kick-off: Tuesday 14 Jan 2025, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Nakhon Pathom 47% | Draw 25% | Nong Bua Pitchaya 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 61% | BTTS 63% | xG Nakhon Pathom 1.80 / Nong Bua Pitchaya 1.36 • Poisson strength factors: Nakhon Pathom attack 0.759 / def 1.247 | Nong Bua Pitchaya attack 0.932 / def 1.436 | league avg home 1.654 / away 1.174 • Poisson stance: Nakhon Pathom (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.80
Nakhon Pathom xG
Expected Goals
1.36
Nong Bua Pitchaya xG
63%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
61%
Over 2.5
39%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Nakhon Pathom vs Nong Bua Pitchaya kick off?
Nakhon Pathom vs Nong Bua Pitchaya kicked off at 12:00 on Tuesday 14 January 2025 at Nakhon Pathom Municipality Sport School Stadium.
What was the final score in Nakhon Pathom vs Nong Bua Pitchaya?
Nakhon Pathom 1 - 1 Nong Bua Pitchaya.
Where is Nakhon Pathom vs Nong Bua Pitchaya being played?
The match is being played at Nakhon Pathom Municipality Sport School Stadium.
What competition is Nakhon Pathom vs Nong Bua Pitchaya part of?
Nakhon Pathom vs Nong Bua Pitchaya is a Regular Season - 17 fixture in the Thai League 1 (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Nakhon Pathom vs Nong Bua Pitchaya?
Our statistical model gives Nakhon Pathom a 47% chance of winning, Nong Bua Pitchaya a 28% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Nakhon Pathom the favourite.
Will both teams score in Nakhon Pathom vs Nong Bua Pitchaya?
Our model estimates a 63% probability that both Nakhon Pathom and Nong Bua Pitchaya will score (BTTS).
Will Nakhon Pathom vs Nong Bua Pitchaya have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 61%.
What is the head-to-head record between Nakhon Pathom and Nong Bua Pitchaya?
Record (1 meetings): Nakhon Pathom 0W | Draws 0 | Nong Bua Pitchaya 1W.
What form are Nakhon Pathom and Nong Bua Pitchaya in?
Nakhon Pathom (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-D-L-W-W. Nong Bua Pitchaya (all comps): 4W-0D-6L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 2.30 | L5 W-L-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Nakhon Pathom's attack at 0.76x the league average against Nong Bua Pitchaya's defence at 1.44x — combine the two and it projects 1.80 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Nong Bua Pitchaya's attack (0.93x) against Nakhon Pathom's defence (1.25x) — and the away total comes out at 1.36.
These ratings are built from 46/16 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.3%), 1-2 (7.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Nakhon Pathom Win
47%
2.13
25%
4.06
28%
3.53
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.4%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.3%
Home win
1 – 0
7.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.80
Nakhon Pathom xG
Total xG
3.17
1.36
Nong Bua Pitchaya xG
2.13
47%
Home win
4.06
25%
Draw
3.53
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
61%
Over 2.5
1.64
39%
Under 2.5
2.56
39%
Over 3.5
2.56
61%
Under 3.5
1.64
21%
Over 4.5
4.76
79%
Under 4.5
1.27
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
63%
BTTS Yes
1.59
37%
BTTS No
2.70
Clean Sheet
26%
3.92
16%
6.06
Win to Nil
12%
8.33
5%
21.38
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.2 | 5.8 | 3.9 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 7.6 | 10.4 | 7.1 | 3.2 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.8 | 9.3 | 6.4 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 4.1 | 5.6 | 3.8 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.9 | 2.5 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Nakhon Pathom vs Nong Bua Pitchaya?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.7%.
How many goals are Nakhon Pathom and Nong Bua Pitchaya expected to score?
The model projects 1.80 expected goals for Nakhon Pathom and 1.36 for Nong Bua Pitchaya, a combined total of 3.17.
How confident is the prediction model for Nakhon Pathom vs Nong Bua Pitchaya?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Nakhon Pathom come into this having played 16 games, going 3W 3D 10L for 0.75 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-L-W-W. The sample for Nakhon Pathom is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Nong Bua Pitchaya sit at 1.12 PPG from 16 outings (5W 3D 8L), a run that reads W-L-L-L-W across their last five. The sample for Nong Bua Pitchaya is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 0.75 PPG for Nakhon Pathom against 1.12 for Nong Bua Pitchaya. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Nakhon Pathom's home form reads 1W 1D 4L across 6 games on their own ground, a 0.67 PPG return.
Away from home, Nong Bua Pitchaya have taken 0.33 points per game from 6 outings (0W 2D 4L). That's a step down from their 1.12 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Nong Bua Pitchaya's season.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Nakhon Pathom are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.88 conceded per game recently; Nong Bua Pitchaya are on 1.75 scored and 2.25 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Nong Bua Pitchaya in 69%.
Last 16 Results — Thai League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Nakhon Pathom
Blended
Nong Bua Pitchaya
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Nakhon Pathom and Nong Bua Pitchaya in coming into this match?
Nakhon Pathom have gone 3W 3D 10L in their last 16 games (0.75 PPG), while Nong Bua Pitchaya have gone 5W 3D 8L in their last 16 (1.12 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Nakhon Pathom at home or Nong Bua Pitchaya away?
Nakhon Pathom's home record (0.67 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Nakhon Pathom at home: 0.67 PPG; Nong Bua Pitchaya away: 0.33 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 2 times since August 2024 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Thai League 1. It has been a while since the last meeting — 14 January 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Nakhon Pathom
1
Draws
1
Nong Bua Pitchaya
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Nakhon Pathom and Nong Bua Pitchaya?
From 2 meetings on record, Nakhon Pathom have won 0, Nong Bua Pitchaya have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Nakhon Pathom and Nong Bua Pitchaya last play each other?
They last met on 14 January 2025, when Nakhon Pathom 1-1 Nong Bua Pitchaya.
Who has won more matches between Nakhon Pathom and Nong Bua Pitchaya?
Nong Bua Pitchaya have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Nakhon Pathom are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches.
Nong Bua Pitchaya see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 50% for Nakhon Pathom, 100% for Nong Bua Pitchaya — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 67% for Nakhon Pathom and 83% for Nong Bua Pitchaya. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 0% and 50% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Nakhon Pathom have failed to score in 50% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Nakhon Pathom home games / Nong Bua Pitchaya away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Nakhon Pathom play Nong Bua Pitchaya?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of Nakhon Pathom's games and 100% of Nong Bua Pitchaya's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Nakhon Pathom vs Nong Bua Pitchaya usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of Nakhon Pathom's matches and 83% of Nong Bua Pitchaya's.
Do Nakhon Pathom and Nong Bua Pitchaya tend to score early?
Nakhon Pathom have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Nong Bua Pitchaya in 50% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Nakhon Pathom and Nong Bua Pitchaya share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Nakhon Pathom Municipality Sport School Stadium, Regular Season - 17, as Nakhon Pathom and Nong Bua Pitchaya drew 1-1 in the Thai League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Nakhon Pathom 1.80 xG and Nong Bua Pitchaya 1.36 xG, a combined 3.17. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Nakhon Pathom fell 0.8 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Nakhon Pathom attack 0.76 / defence 1.25 against Nong Bua Pitchaya attack 0.93 / defence 1.44, drawn from 46/16 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Nakhon Pathom 47% | Draw 25% | Nong Bua Pitchaya 28%, with Nakhon Pathom to win its most likely call at 47%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 61%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 63% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 75% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Nakhon Pathom 75%, Nong Bua Pitchaya 75%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Nakhon Pathom's trading profile (16 games, 6 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Nong Bua Pitchaya's trading profile (16 games, 6 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 69% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Nakhon Pathom 0.75 PPG, Nong Bua Pitchaya 1.12 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Nakhon Pathom (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 1.83 average — tighter than their form line. Nong Bua Pitchaya (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.67 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.