Muangthong United 0-0 Port FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Port FC (54%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Muangthong United face Port FC.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Thai League 1 clash, Regular Season - 23 as Muangthong United welcome Port FC to Thunderdome Stadium. Kick-off is set for Sunday 1 March 2026 at 12:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Thai League 1 games this season, Muangthong United have gone 1W 1D 8L from 10 outings — a 0.40 PPG return. Last five: L L L D L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 2.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.40 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Muangthong United, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Muangthong United at Thunderdome Stadium this season: 2W 2D 6L from 10 home games — 0.80 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game.
Port FC — All Games: 6W 1D 3L from 10 Thai League 1 fixtures this season — 1.90 PPG. Last five: L W L W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.20 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Port FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Port FC away from home this season: 4W 0D 6L from 10 away games — 1.20 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 1.20 is notably below their overall 1.90 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Form points away from home here. Port FC's 1.90 PPG return is 1.50 points per game ahead of Muangthong United's 0.40 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
H2H Record
The previous 9 encounters between these sides heavily favour Port FC, who boast 5 victories compared to 2 for Muangthong United.
The 9 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 2.9 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 24 Oct 2025, ended 0–1 with Port FC winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Port FC have won 5 of 9 previous encounters, and at 2.9 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
In-Play Profile
Muangthong United in-play tendencies (51 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 35%.
Port FC in-play tendencies (51 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 35%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Muangthong United 55% versus Port FC 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Muangthong United 53% | Port FC 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Muangthong United 1.29 xG and Port FC 2.05 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Muangthong United attack 0.776 / defence 1.413 | Port FC attack 1.238 / defence 1.098. League average goals — home 1.517 / away 1.171. Muangthong United's attack strength of 0.776 is below the league average — the 1.29 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Port FC have an above-average attack strength of 1.238 — the away xG of 2.05 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 51 Muangthong United games / 51 Port FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Muangthong United 23% | Draw 24% | Port FC 54%. Fair-value odds: Muangthong United 4.35 | Draw 4.17 | Port FC 1.85. Port FC hold a narrow Poisson edge at 54% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 65% | BTTS probability 64% | Total xG 3.34. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 65% — a total xG of 3.34 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 64% reflects that both xG figures (1.29 / 2.05) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Port FC are the pick at 54% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Port FC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 3.34 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 65% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game and H2H averaging 2.9 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 64%. This conflicts with form data: Muangthong United 50% | Port FC 30% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Muangthong United vs Port FC | Competition: Thai League 1, Regular Season - 23 | Venue: Thunderdome Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 1 Mar 2026, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Muangthong United 23% | Draw 24% | Port FC 54% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 65% | BTTS 64% | xG Muangthong United 1.29 / Port FC 2.05 • Poisson strength factors: Muangthong United attack 0.776 / def 1.413 | Port FC attack 1.238 / def 1.098 | league avg home 1.517 / away 1.171 • Poisson stance: Port FC (54%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.29
Muangthong United xG
Expected Goals
2.05
Port FC xG
64%
BTTS
86%
Over 1.5
65%
Over 2.5
43%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Muangthong United vs Port FC kick off?
Muangthong United vs Port FC kicked off at 12:00 on Sunday 1 March 2026 at Thunderdome Stadium.
What was the final score in Muangthong United vs Port FC?
Muangthong United 0 - 0 Port FC.
Where is Muangthong United vs Port FC being played?
The match is being played at Thunderdome Stadium.
What competition is Muangthong United vs Port FC part of?
Muangthong United vs Port FC is a Regular Season - 23 fixture in the Thai League 1 (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Muangthong United vs Port FC?
Our statistical model gives Muangthong United a 23% chance of winning, Port FC a 54% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Port FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Muangthong United vs Port FC?
Our model estimates a 64% probability that both Muangthong United and Port FC will score (BTTS).
Will Muangthong United vs Port FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 65%.
What is the head-to-head record between Muangthong United and Port FC?
Record (9 meetings): Muangthong United 2W | Draws 2 | Port FC 5W.
What form are Muangthong United and Port FC in?
Muangthong United (all comps): 1W-1D-8L in 10 | 0.40 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 2.40 | L5 L-L-L-D-L. Port FC (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-W-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Muangthong United's attack at 0.78x the league average against Port FC's defence at 1.10x — combine the two and it projects 1.29 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Port FC's attack versus Muangthong United's defence, projects 2.05 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 51/51 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 10.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (9.6%), 0-2 (7.4%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Port FC Win
23%
4.43
24%
4.20
54%
1.86
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 2
9.6%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
9.4%
Draw
0 – 2
7.4%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.29
Muangthong United xG
Total xG
3.34
2.05
Port FC xG
4.43
23%
Home win
4.20
24%
Draw
1.86
54%
Away win
Goals Markets
85%
Over 1.5
1.18
15%
Under 1.5
6.67
65%
Over 2.5
1.54
35%
Under 2.5
2.86
43%
Over 3.5
2.33
57%
Under 3.5
1.75
24%
Over 4.5
4.17
76%
Under 4.5
1.32
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
64%
BTTS Yes
1.55
36%
BTTS No
2.81
Clean Sheet
13%
7.76
27%
3.64
Win to Nil
3%
34.38
15%
6.79
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.5 | 7.3 | 7.4 | 5.1 | 2.6 | 1.1 |
| 1 | 4.6 | 9.4 | 9.6 | 6.6 | 3.4 | 1.4 |
| 2 | 3.0 | 6.1 | 6.2 | 4.2 | 2.2 | 0.9 |
| 3 | 1.3 | 2.6 | 2.7 | 1.8 | 0.9 | 0.4 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.8 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Muangthong United vs Port FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.6%.
How many goals are Muangthong United and Port FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.29 expected goals for Muangthong United and 2.05 for Port FC, a combined total of 3.34.
How confident is the prediction model for Muangthong United vs Port FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 54%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Muangthong United's recent record stands at 16W 11D 24L from 51 games, a 1.16 PPG return, with L-L-L-D-L in the last five. The sample for Muangthong United is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Port FC, meanwhile, have gone 25W 12D 14L across 51 games — 1.71 PPG, with L-W-L-W-W in their last five. The sample for Port FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Port FC by 0.55 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Muangthong United heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Muangthong United have managed 12W 4D 9L from 25 games — 1.60 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.16 PPG overall — Muangthong United are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Port FC's away record stands at 10W 4D 11L across 25 trips, a 1.36 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
Muangthong United are averaging 1.27 goals scored and 1.59 conceded per game recently; Port FC are on 1.84 scored and 1.14 conceded.
Last 51 Results — Thai League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Muangthong United
Blended
Port FC
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Muangthong United and Port FC in coming into this match?
Muangthong United have gone 16W 11D 24L in their last 51 games (1.16 PPG), while Port FC have gone 25W 12D 14L in their last 51 (1.71 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Muangthong United at home or Port FC away?
Muangthong United's home record (1.60 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Muangthong United at home: 1.60 PPG; Port FC away: 1.36 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Thai League 1. They last met on 1 March 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Muangthong United's record when hosting Port FC specifically: 1W 2D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Muangthong United
3
Draws
5
Port FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Muangthong United and Port FC?
From 10 meetings on record, Muangthong United have won 2, Port FC have won 5, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Muangthong United and Port FC last play each other?
They last met on 1 March 2026, when Muangthong United 0-0 Port FC.
Who has won more matches between Muangthong United and Port FC?
Port FC have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Muangthong United see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Port FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Muangthong United 52%, Port FC 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 52% (Muangthong United) and 48% (Port FC).
On the defensive side: Muangthong United keep a clean sheet in 36% of their matches; Port FC in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Muangthong United home games / Port FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Muangthong United play Port FC?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 52% of Muangthong United's recent matches and 52% of Port FC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Muangthong United vs Port FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 52% of Muangthong United's recent games and 48% of Port FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Muangthong United and Port FC tend to score early?
Muangthong United have had a goal before half-time in 56% of their recent matches, Port FC in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Muangthong United's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Thunderdome Stadium, Regular Season - 23, as Muangthong United and Port FC drew 0-0 in the Thai League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Muangthong United 1.29 xG and Port FC 2.05 xG, a combined 3.34. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Muangthong United fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Port FC landed 2.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Muangthong United attack 0.78 / defence 1.41 against Port FC attack 1.24 / defence 1.10, drawn from 51/51 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Muangthong United 23% | Draw 24% | Port FC 54%, with Port FC to win its most likely call at 54%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 65%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 86% and missed. Over 3.5 was 43% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 64% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Muangthong United 53%, Port FC 53%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Muangthong United's trading profile (51 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 29% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Port FC's trading profile (51 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Port FC arrived the stronger side — 1.71 PPG against 1.16. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Muangthong United (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.44 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.36 average — tighter than their form line. Port FC (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.40 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.40 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.