Muangthong United 4-1 Nakhon Ratchasima FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Muangthong United at 58%, yet other data sources diverge — this Muangthong United vs Nakhon Ratchasima FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Thai League 1 clash, Regular Season - 15 as Muangthong United welcome Nakhon Ratchasima FC to Thunder Dome Stadium. Kick-off is set for Saturday 27 November 2021 at 11:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Muangthong United stand at 5W 2D 3L from 10 Thai League 1 matches — 1.70 PPG. Last five: L W D W L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Muangthong United, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Muangthong United's form when playing at home: 5W 2D 0L across 7 games at Thunder Dome Stadium this term (2.43 PPG). They are averaging 2.14 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 86% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.43 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.70 — Muangthong United are significantly better at Thunder Dome Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Across all Thai League 1 games this season, Nakhon Ratchasima FC have recorded 4W 3D 3L from 10 outings — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W W D L D. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Nakhon Ratchasima FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Nakhon Ratchasima FC's form when playing away from home: 1W 2D 4L across 7 road games this term (0.71 PPG). Away from home they average 1.14 goals scored and 1.86 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 71% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.71 is notably below their overall 1.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Muangthong United 1.70 PPG, Nakhon Ratchasima FC 1.50 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
Both teams score in over 71% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
In-Play Data
Muangthong United trading profile (14 games, 7 at home): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 86% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (home games).
Nakhon Ratchasima FC trading profile (14 games, 7 at away): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 33% of the time; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (away games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Muangthong United 64% versus Nakhon Ratchasima FC 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Muangthong United 57% | Nakhon Ratchasima FC 36%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Muangthong United 1.98 xG and Nakhon Ratchasima FC 1.10 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Muangthong United attack 1.260 / defence 1.110 | Nakhon Ratchasima FC attack 0.858 / defence 1.490. League average goals — home 1.055 / away 1.156. Muangthong United carry an above-average attack strength of 1.260 — their λ of 1.98 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Nakhon Ratchasima FC bring a strong defensive rating of 1.490 — this is suppressing Muangthong United's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 14 Muangthong United games / 14 Nakhon Ratchasima FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Muangthong United 58% | Draw 22% | Nakhon Ratchasima FC 21%. Fair-value odds: Muangthong United 1.72 | Draw 4.55 | Nakhon Ratchasima FC 4.76. The model has a clear lean to Muangthong United (58%) — a 37pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 59% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 3.08. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 59% — the 3.08 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Muangthong United are the pick at 58% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 3.08 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 59% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 58%. Form rates corroborate: Muangthong United 86% | Nakhon Ratchasima FC 71% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Muangthong United vs Nakhon Ratchasima FC | Competition: Thai League 1, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: Thunder Dome Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 27 Nov 2021, 11:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Muangthong United 58% | Draw 22% | Nakhon Ratchasima FC 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 59% | BTTS 58% | xG Muangthong United 1.98 / Nakhon Ratchasima FC 1.10 • Poisson strength factors: Muangthong United attack 1.260 / def 1.110 | Nakhon Ratchasima FC attack 0.858 / def 1.490 | league avg home 1.055 / away 1.156 • Poisson stance: Muangthong United (58%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.98
Muangthong United xG
Expected Goals
1.10
Nakhon Ratchasima FC xG
58%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
59%
Over 2.5
37%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Muangthong United vs Nakhon Ratchasima FC kick off?
Muangthong United vs Nakhon Ratchasima FC kicked off at 11:00 on Saturday 27 November 2021 at Thunder Dome Stadium.
What was the final score in Muangthong United vs Nakhon Ratchasima FC?
Muangthong United 4 - 1 Nakhon Ratchasima FC.
Where is Muangthong United vs Nakhon Ratchasima FC being played?
The match is being played at Thunder Dome Stadium.
What competition is Muangthong United vs Nakhon Ratchasima FC part of?
Muangthong United vs Nakhon Ratchasima FC is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the Thai League 1 (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Muangthong United vs Nakhon Ratchasima FC?
Our statistical model gives Muangthong United a 58% chance of winning, Nakhon Ratchasima FC a 21% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Muangthong United the favourite.
Will both teams score in Muangthong United vs Nakhon Ratchasima FC?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Muangthong United and Nakhon Ratchasima FC will score (BTTS).
Will Muangthong United vs Nakhon Ratchasima FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 59%.
What is the head-to-head record between Muangthong United and Nakhon Ratchasima FC?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Muangthong United and Nakhon Ratchasima FC in?
Muangthong United (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-W-D-W-L. Nakhon Ratchasima FC (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-W-D-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Muangthong United's attack rating (1.26) and Nakhon Ratchasima FC's defence rating (1.49), the model arrives at 1.98 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Nakhon Ratchasima FC's attack versus Muangthong United's defence, projects 1.10 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 14/14 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.3%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.9%), 2-0 (9.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Muangthong United Win
58%
1.73
22%
4.64
21%
4.84
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.0%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.9%
Home win
1 – 0
9.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.98
Muangthong United xG
Total xG
3.08
1.10
Nakhon Ratchasima FC xG
1.73
58%
Home win
4.64
22%
Draw
4.84
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
59%
Over 2.5
1.69
41%
Under 2.5
2.44
37%
Over 3.5
2.70
63%
Under 3.5
1.59
20%
Over 4.5
5.00
80%
Under 4.5
1.25
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.74
42%
BTTS No
2.36
Clean Sheet
33%
3.01
14%
7.25
Win to Nil
19%
5.20
3%
35.11
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.6 | 5.1 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.1 | 10.0 | 5.5 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.0 | 9.9 | 5.5 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.9 | 6.5 | 3.6 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.9 | 3.2 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 1.2 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Muangthong United vs Nakhon Ratchasima FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.3%.
How many goals are Muangthong United and Nakhon Ratchasima FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.98 expected goals for Muangthong United and 1.10 for Nakhon Ratchasima FC, a combined total of 3.08.
How confident is the prediction model for Muangthong United vs Nakhon Ratchasima FC?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 58%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Muangthong United's recent record stands at 6W 4D 4L from 14 games, a 1.57 PPG return, with L-W-D-W-L in the last five. The sample for Muangthong United is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Nakhon Ratchasima FC, meanwhile, have gone 5W 4D 5L across 14 games — 1.36 PPG, with W-W-D-L-D in their last five. The sample for Nakhon Ratchasima FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Muangthong United on 1.57 PPG, Nakhon Ratchasima FC on 1.36. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Muangthong United have managed 5W 2D 0L from 7 games — 2.43 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.57 PPG overall — Muangthong United are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Nakhon Ratchasima FC's away record stands at 1W 2D 4L across 7 trips, a 0.71 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.36 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Nakhon Ratchasima FC's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Muangthong United come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Muangthong United are averaging 1.43 goals scored and 1.29 conceded per game recently; Nakhon Ratchasima FC are on 1.07 scored and 1.21 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Muangthong United have seen both teams score in 64% of their recent games.
Last 14 Results — Thai League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Muangthong United
Blended
Nakhon Ratchasima FC
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Muangthong United and Nakhon Ratchasima FC in coming into this match?
Muangthong United have gone 6W 4D 4L in their last 14 games (1.57 PPG), while Nakhon Ratchasima FC have gone 5W 4D 5L in their last 14 (1.36 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Muangthong United at home or Nakhon Ratchasima FC away?
Muangthong United's home record (2.43 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Muangthong United at home: 2.43 PPG; Nakhon Ratchasima FC away: 0.71 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Thai League 1. They last met on 18 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 27 Nov 2021, when Muangthong United won 4-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Muangthong United's record when hosting Nakhon Ratchasima FC specifically: 4W 0D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
4
Muangthong United
2
Draws
2
Nakhon Ratchasima FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Muangthong United and Nakhon Ratchasima FC?
From 8 meetings on record, Muangthong United have won 4, Nakhon Ratchasima FC have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Muangthong United and Nakhon Ratchasima FC last play each other?
They last met on 18 April 2026, when Muangthong United 2-1 Nakhon Ratchasima FC.
Who has won more matches between Muangthong United and Nakhon Ratchasima FC?
Muangthong United have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Muangthong United are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 29% of those situations.
Nakhon Ratchasima FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 29% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Muangthong United at 86%, Nakhon Ratchasima FC at 71%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 71% (Muangthong United) and 43% (Nakhon Ratchasima FC). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 29% and 29% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Nakhon Ratchasima FC in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Muangthong United home games / Nakhon Ratchasima FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Muangthong United play Nakhon Ratchasima FC?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 86% of Muangthong United's games and 71% of Nakhon Ratchasima FC's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Muangthong United vs Nakhon Ratchasima FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 71% of Muangthong United's matches and 43% of Nakhon Ratchasima FC's.
Do Muangthong United and Nakhon Ratchasima FC tend to score early?
Muangthong United have had a goal before half-time in 86% of their recent matches, Nakhon Ratchasima FC in 86% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Muangthong United run riot with a 4-1 hammering of Nakhon Ratchasima FC.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Muangthong United beat Nakhon Ratchasima FC 4-1 at Thunder Dome Stadium, Regular Season - 15, in the Thai League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Muangthong United 1.98 xG and Nakhon Ratchasima FC 1.10 xG, a combined 3.08. The scoreboard read 4-1 for 5 actual goals. Muangthong United beat their projection by 2.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Muangthong United attack 1.26 / defence 1.11 against Nakhon Ratchasima FC attack 0.86 / defence 1.49, drawn from 14/14 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Muangthong United 58% | Draw 22% | Nakhon Ratchasima FC 21%, with Muangthong United to win its most likely call at 58%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. Over 3.5 was 37% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Muangthong United 57%, Nakhon Ratchasima FC 36%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Muangthong United's trading profile (14 games, 7 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.
Nakhon Ratchasima FC's trading profile (14 games, 7 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Muangthong United 1.57 PPG, Nakhon Ratchasima FC 1.36 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Muangthong United win broke the near-deadlock. Muangthong United (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 2.14 average — above their attacking norm. Nakhon Ratchasima FC (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.86 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.