Muangthong United 0-0 Khon Kaen United – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Muangthong United (69%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Muangthong United face Khon Kaen United.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Thunder Dome Stadium plays host to Muangthong United versus Khon Kaen United in Thai League 1, Regular Season - 8. Kick-off: Friday 27 September 2024 at 12:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Muangthong United have collected 2.30 PPG across 10 Thai League 1 outings this season: 7W 2D 1L. Last five: W D W D W. They are averaging 2.50 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Muangthong United have played only a handful of Thai League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Muangthong United at Thunder Dome Stadium this season: 10W 0D 0L from 10 home games — 3.00 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 3.40 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Thunder Dome Stadium. Their home PPG of 3.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 2.30 — Muangthong United are significantly better at Thunder Dome Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Khon Kaen United (all games): 1W 2D 7L across 10 Thai League 1 outings this term — 0.50 points per game. Last five: L L L L D. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 2.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.40 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Khon Kaen United have played only a handful of Thai League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
On the road, Khon Kaen United have gone 2W 0D 8L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 2.60 conceded per game.
The points-per-game gap of 1.80 in Muangthong United's favour (2.30 vs 0.50) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
H2H History
Across 6 previous meetings, Muangthong United are the stronger side on paper — 4 victories to 1, with 1 draws in between.
The 6 previous meetings have averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 10 Mar 2024, ended 4–0 with Muangthong United winning.
The historical record gives Muangthong United a meaningful edge here — 4 wins from 6 meetings is the kind of ledger that should not be discounted when the form picture is inconclusive. Even away from home, the visitors have struggled to impose themselves in this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Muangthong United — key trading statistics (36 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 47%.
Khon Kaen United — key trading statistics (36 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 47%; they fail to score in 42% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Muangthong United 67% versus Khon Kaen United 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Muangthong United 69% | Khon Kaen United 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Muangthong United 2.37 xG and Khon Kaen United 0.85 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Muangthong United attack 1.227 / defence 0.864 | Khon Kaen United attack 0.816 / defence 1.084. League average goals — home 1.780 / away 1.203. Data: 36 Muangthong United games / 37 Khon Kaen United games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Muangthong United 69% | Draw 22% | Khon Kaen United 9%. Fair-value odds: Muangthong United 1.45 | Draw 4.55 | Khon Kaen United 11.11. The model has a clear lean to Muangthong United (69%) — a 60pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 62% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 3.22. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 62% — the 3.22 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Muangthong United as the most likely outcome at 69% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 3.22 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 62% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.8 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 54% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: Muangthong United 40% | Khon Kaen United 40% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Muangthong United vs Khon Kaen United | Competition: Thai League 1, Regular Season - 8 | Venue: Thunder Dome Stadium • Kick-off: Friday 27 Sep 2024, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Muangthong United 69% | Draw 22% | Khon Kaen United 9% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 62% | BTTS 54% | xG Muangthong United 2.37 / Khon Kaen United 0.85 • Poisson strength factors: Muangthong United attack 1.227 / def 0.864 | Khon Kaen United attack 0.816 / def 1.084 | league avg home 1.780 / away 1.203 • Poisson stance: Muangthong United (69%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.37
Muangthong United xG
Expected Goals
0.85
Khon Kaen United xG
54%
BTTS
86%
Over 1.5
62%
Over 2.5
40%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Muangthong United vs Khon Kaen United kick off?
Muangthong United vs Khon Kaen United kicked off at 12:00 on Friday 27 September 2024 at Thunder Dome Stadium.
What was the final score in Muangthong United vs Khon Kaen United?
Muangthong United 0 - 0 Khon Kaen United.
Where is Muangthong United vs Khon Kaen United being played?
The match is being played at Thunder Dome Stadium.
What competition is Muangthong United vs Khon Kaen United part of?
Muangthong United vs Khon Kaen United is a Regular Season - 8 fixture in the Thai League 1 (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Muangthong United vs Khon Kaen United?
Our statistical model gives Muangthong United a 69% chance of winning, Khon Kaen United a 9% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Muangthong United the favourite.
Will both teams score in Muangthong United vs Khon Kaen United?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Muangthong United and Khon Kaen United will score (BTTS).
Will Muangthong United vs Khon Kaen United have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 62%.
What is the head-to-head record between Muangthong United and Khon Kaen United?
Record (6 meetings): Muangthong United 4W | Draws 1 | Khon Kaen United 1W.
What form are Muangthong United and Khon Kaen United in?
Muangthong United (all comps): 7W-2D-1L in 10 | 2.30 PPG | GF 2.50 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-D-W-D-W. Khon Kaen United (all comps): 1W-2D-7L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 2.40 | L5 L-L-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Muangthong United's attacking strength (1.23x league average) is weighed against Khon Kaen United's defensive record (1.08x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.37. Flip it around — Khon Kaen United's attack (0.82x) against Muangthong United's defence (0.86x) — and the away total comes out at 0.85.
These ratings are built from 36/37 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 2-0, at 11.2%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.5%), 1-1 (9.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Muangthong United Win
69%
1.45
22%
4.55
9%
10.79
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
11.2%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 0
9.5%
Home win
2 – 1
9.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.37
Muangthong United xG
Total xG
3.22
0.85
Khon Kaen United xG
1.45
69%
Home win
4.55
22%
Draw
10.79
9%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
62%
Over 2.5
1.61
38%
Under 2.5
2.63
40%
Over 3.5
2.50
60%
Under 3.5
1.67
22%
Over 4.5
4.55
78%
Under 4.5
1.28
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.84
46%
BTTS No
2.19
Clean Sheet
43%
2.34
9%
10.67
Win to Nil
29%
3.40
1%
115.05
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.0 | 3.4 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 9.5 | 8.1 | 3.4 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 11.2 | 9.5 | 4.1 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 8.9 | 7.5 | 3.2 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 5.2 | 4.5 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 2.5 | 2.1 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Muangthong United vs Khon Kaen United?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.2%.
How many goals are Muangthong United and Khon Kaen United expected to score?
The model projects 2.37 expected goals for Muangthong United and 0.85 for Khon Kaen United, a combined total of 3.22.
How confident is the prediction model for Muangthong United vs Khon Kaen United?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 69%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Muangthong United's recent record stands at 19W 6D 11L from 36 games, a 1.75 PPG return, with W-D-W-D-W in the last five. It's still early in the season for Muangthong United, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Khon Kaen United, meanwhile, have gone 8W 12D 16L across 36 games — 1.00 PPG, with L-L-L-L-D in their last five. It's still early in the season for Khon Kaen United, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours Muangthong United by 0.75 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Khon Kaen United heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Muangthong United have managed 13W 2D 2L from 17 games — 2.41 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.75 PPG overall — Muangthong United are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Khon Kaen United's away record stands at 3W 2D 12L across 17 trips, a 0.65 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Muangthong United come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Muangthong United are averaging 2.03 goals scored and 1.39 conceded per game recently; Khon Kaen United are on 1.28 scored and 1.94 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Muangthong United have seen both teams score in 67% of their recent games.
Last 36 Results — Thai League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Muangthong United
Early Season
Khon Kaen United
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Muangthong United and Khon Kaen United in coming into this match?
Muangthong United have gone 19W 6D 11L in their last 36 games (1.75 PPG), while Khon Kaen United have gone 8W 12D 16L in their last 36 (1.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Muangthong United at home or Khon Kaen United away?
Muangthong United's home record (2.41 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Muangthong United at home: 2.41 PPG; Khon Kaen United away: 0.65 PPG.
Have Muangthong United or Khon Kaen United been keeping clean sheets recently?
Muangthong United have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Khon Kaen United in 17%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 8 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Thai League 1. It has been a while since the last meeting — 2 April 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Muangthong United won 4-0 on 10 Mar 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Muangthong United have gone 3W 1D 0L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Khon Kaen United — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
4
Muangthong United
2
Draws
2
Khon Kaen United
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Muangthong United and Khon Kaen United?
From 8 meetings on record, Muangthong United have won 4, Khon Kaen United have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Muangthong United and Khon Kaen United last play each other?
They last met on 2 April 2025, when Khon Kaen United 2-1 Muangthong United.
Who has won more matches between Muangthong United and Khon Kaen United?
Muangthong United have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Muangthong United are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 18% of those situations.
Khon Kaen United are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Muangthong United 59%, Khon Kaen United 47% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 71% for Muangthong United and 59% for Khon Kaen United. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 53% and 59% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Muangthong United keep a clean sheet in 41% of their matches; Khon Kaen United in 53%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Muangthong United home games / Khon Kaen United away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Muangthong United play Khon Kaen United?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 59% of Muangthong United's recent matches and 47% of Khon Kaen United's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Muangthong United vs Khon Kaen United usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 71% of Muangthong United's matches and 59% of Khon Kaen United's.
Do Muangthong United and Khon Kaen United tend to score early?
Muangthong United have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Khon Kaen United in 76% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Muangthong United's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Thunder Dome Stadium, Regular Season - 8, as Muangthong United and Khon Kaen United drew 0-0 in the Thai League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Muangthong United 2.37 xG and Khon Kaen United 0.85 xG, a combined 3.22. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Muangthong United fell 2.4 short of their projected output. Khon Kaen United landed 0.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Muangthong United attack 1.23 / defence 0.86 against Khon Kaen United attack 0.82 / defence 1.08, drawn from 36/37 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Muangthong United 69% | Draw 22% | Khon Kaen United 9%, with Muangthong United to win its most likely call at 69%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 62%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 86% and missed. Over 3.5 was 40% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 64% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Muangthong United 69%, Khon Kaen United 58%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Muangthong United's trading profile (36 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and duly kept one.
Khon Kaen United's trading profile (36 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 42% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Muangthong United arrived the stronger side — 1.75 PPG against 1.00. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Muangthong United (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.71 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 0.94 average — tighter than their form line. Khon Kaen United (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.06 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 2.65 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.