Lamphun Warrior vs Sukhothai FC – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson rates Lamphun Warrior at 49% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Lamphun Warrior vs Sukhothai FC encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Lamphun Warrior host Sukhothai FC at 700th Anniversary Stadium in Thai League 1, Regular Season - 8. Kick-off is scheduled for Friday 6 November 2026 at 12:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Thai League 1 games this season, Lamphun Warrior have gone 3W 4D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.30 PPG return. Last five: D L W W W. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Lamphun Warrior have played only a handful of Thai League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Lamphun Warrior's form when playing at home: 3W 4D 3L across 10 games at 700th Anniversary Stadium this term (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Sukhothai FC — All Games: 4W 0D 6L from 10 Thai League 1 fixtures this season — 1.20 PPG. Last five: W L W W L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Sukhothai FC have played only a handful of Thai League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Sukhothai FC's form when playing away from home: 1W 1D 8L across 10 road games this term (0.40 PPG). Away from home they average 0.40 goals scored and 2.30 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 0.40 is notably below their overall 1.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.30 PPG (Lamphun Warrior) versus 1.20 (Sukhothai FC). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H
The historical ledger comes down firmly in favour of Lamphun Warrior: 6 wins from 8 previous clashes against 2 for Sukhothai FC, with 0 draws across those contests.
The 8 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 25 Jan 2026, ended 3–0 with Lamphun Warrior winning.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Lamphun Warrior and goals. The home side's 6 wins from 8 meetings, combined with an average of 3.0 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
Trading Patterns
Lamphun Warrior in-play and half-time data (37 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 77% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 72% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games).
Sukhothai FC in-play and half-time data (37 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 28% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (away games); they fail to score in 46% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Lamphun Warrior 65% versus Sukhothai FC 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Lamphun Warrior 49% | Sukhothai FC 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Lamphun Warrior 1.88 xG and Sukhothai FC 1.34 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Lamphun Warrior attack 1.000 / defence 1.187 | Sukhothai FC attack 0.774 / defence 1.301. League average goals — home 1.445 / away 1.456. Sukhothai FC bring a strong defensive rating of 1.301 — this is suppressing Lamphun Warrior's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 37 Lamphun Warrior games / 37 Sukhothai FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Lamphun Warrior 49% | Draw 24% | Sukhothai FC 27%. Fair-value odds: Lamphun Warrior 2.04 | Draw 4.17 | Sukhothai FC 3.70. Lamphun Warrior hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 62% | BTTS probability 63% | Total xG 3.22. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 62% — the 3.22 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 63% reflects that both xG figures (1.88 / 1.34) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Form averages suggest only ~1.7 goals/game but Poisson projects Over 2.5 at 62% — underlying attack/defence strengths imply more goals than surface form shows.
Poisson rates Lamphun Warrior as the most likely outcome at 49% — moderate model lean. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Lamphun Warrior offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.22 combined xG gives a 62% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by H2H averaging 3.0 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 63% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Lamphun Warrior 60% | Sukhothai FC 30%.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Lamphun Warrior vs Sukhothai FC | Competition: Thai League 1, Regular Season - 8 | Venue: 700th Anniversary Stadium • Kick-off: Friday 6 Nov 2026, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Lamphun Warrior 49% | Draw 24% | Sukhothai FC 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 62% | BTTS 63% | xG Lamphun Warrior 1.88 / Sukhothai FC 1.34 • Poisson strength factors: Lamphun Warrior attack 1.000 / def 1.187 | Sukhothai FC attack 0.774 / def 1.301 | league avg home 1.445 / away 1.456 • Poisson stance: Lamphun Warrior (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.88
Lamphun Warrior xG
Expected Goals
1.34
Sukhothai FC xG
63%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
62%
Over 2.5
40%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Lamphun Warrior vs Sukhothai FC kick off?
Lamphun Warrior vs Sukhothai FC is scheduled to kick off at 12:00 on Friday 6 November 2026 at 700th Anniversary Stadium.
Where is Lamphun Warrior vs Sukhothai FC being played?
The match is being played at 700th Anniversary Stadium.
What competition is Lamphun Warrior vs Sukhothai FC part of?
Lamphun Warrior vs Sukhothai FC is a Regular Season - 8 fixture in the Thai League 1 (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Lamphun Warrior vs Sukhothai FC?
Our statistical model gives Lamphun Warrior a 49% chance of winning, Sukhothai FC a 27% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Lamphun Warrior the favourite.
Will both teams score in Lamphun Warrior vs Sukhothai FC?
Our model estimates a 63% probability that both Lamphun Warrior and Sukhothai FC will score (BTTS).
Will Lamphun Warrior vs Sukhothai FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 62%.
What is the head-to-head record between Lamphun Warrior and Sukhothai FC?
Record (8 meetings): Lamphun Warrior 6W | Draws 0 | Sukhothai FC 2W.
What form are Lamphun Warrior and Sukhothai FC in?
Lamphun Warrior (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-L-W-W-W. Sukhothai FC (all comps): 4W-0D-6L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.90 | L5 W-L-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Lamphun Warrior's attack rating (1.00) and Sukhothai FC's defence rating (1.30), the model arrives at 1.88 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Sukhothai FC's attack versus Lamphun Warrior's defence, projects 1.34 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 37/37 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.4%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.5%), 2-0 (7.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Lamphun Warrior Win
49%
2.02
24%
4.15
27%
3.77
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.1%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.5%
Home win
1 – 0
7.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.88
Lamphun Warrior xG
Total xG
3.22
1.34
Sukhothai FC xG
2.02
49%
Home win
4.15
24%
Draw
3.77
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
62%
Over 2.5
1.61
38%
Under 2.5
2.63
40%
Over 3.5
2.50
60%
Under 3.5
1.67
22%
Over 4.5
4.55
78%
Under 4.5
1.28
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
63%
BTTS Yes
1.58
37%
BTTS No
2.73
Clean Sheet
26%
3.81
15%
6.56
Win to Nil
13%
7.72
4%
24.74
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.0 | 5.4 | 3.6 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 7.5 | 10.1 | 6.7 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 7.1 | 9.5 | 6.3 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 4.4 | 5.9 | 4.0 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 2.1 | 2.8 | 1.9 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.8 | 1.1 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Lamphun Warrior vs Sukhothai FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.4%.
How many goals are Lamphun Warrior and Sukhothai FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.88 expected goals for Lamphun Warrior and 1.34 for Sukhothai FC, a combined total of 3.22.
How confident is the prediction model for Lamphun Warrior vs Sukhothai FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Lamphun Warrior come into this having played 37 games, going 7W 18D 12L for 1.05 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-W-W-W. It's still early in the season for Lamphun Warrior, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Sukhothai FC sit at 1.00 PPG from 37 outings (9W 10D 18L), a run that reads W-L-W-W-L across their last five. It's still early in the season for Sukhothai FC, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Lamphun Warrior on 1.05 PPG, Sukhothai FC on 1.00. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Lamphun Warrior's home form reads 3W 10D 5L across 18 games on their own ground, a 1.06 PPG return.
Away from home, Sukhothai FC have taken 0.39 points per game from 18 outings (1W 4D 13L). That's a step down from their 1.00 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Sukhothai FC's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Lamphun Warrior come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Lamphun Warrior are averaging 1.27 goals scored and 1.54 conceded per game recently; Sukhothai FC are on 0.89 scored and 1.57 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Lamphun Warrior have seen both teams score in 65% of their recent games.
Last 37 Results — Thai League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Lamphun Warrior
Early Season
Sukhothai FC
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Lamphun Warrior and Sukhothai FC in coming into this match?
Lamphun Warrior have gone 7W 18D 12L in their last 37 games (1.05 PPG), while Sukhothai FC have gone 9W 10D 18L in their last 37 (1.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Lamphun Warrior at home or Sukhothai FC away?
Lamphun Warrior's home record (1.06 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Lamphun Warrior at home: 1.06 PPG; Sukhothai FC away: 0.39 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Thai League 1. They last met on 25 January 2026, roughly 9 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Lamphun Warrior go into this on the back of 3 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 21 Sep 2024, when Sukhothai FC won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Lamphun Warrior's record when hosting Sukhothai FC specifically: 3W 0D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
6
Lamphun Warrior
0
Draws
2
Sukhothai FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Lamphun Warrior and Sukhothai FC?
From 8 meetings on record, Lamphun Warrior have won 6, Sukhothai FC have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Lamphun Warrior and Sukhothai FC last play each other?
They last met on 25 January 2026, when Lamphun Warrior 3-0 Sukhothai FC.
Who has won more matches between Lamphun Warrior and Sukhothai FC?
Lamphun Warrior have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Lamphun Warrior are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 28% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Sukhothai FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Lamphun Warrior 72%, Sukhothai FC 28% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 56% (Lamphun Warrior) and 33% (Sukhothai FC).
On the defensive side: Sukhothai FC in 72%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Lamphun Warrior home games / Sukhothai FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Lamphun Warrior play Sukhothai FC?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 72% of Lamphun Warrior's recent matches and 28% of Sukhothai FC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Lamphun Warrior vs Sukhothai FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 56% of Lamphun Warrior's recent games and 33% of Sukhothai FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Lamphun Warrior and Sukhothai FC tend to score early?
Lamphun Warrior have had a goal before half-time in 72% of their recent matches, Sukhothai FC in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.