Lamphun Warrior vs Port FC – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model favours Port FC (51%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Lamphun Warrior face Port FC.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Thai League 1 clash, Regular Season - 16 as Lamphun Warrior welcome Port FC to 700th Anniversary Stadium. Kick-off is set for Sunday 31 January 2027 at 11:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Thai League 1 games this season, Lamphun Warrior have gone 3W 4D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.30 PPG return. Last five: D L W W W. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Lamphun Warrior have played only a handful of Thai League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Lamphun Warrior's form when playing at home: 3W 4D 3L across 10 games at 700th Anniversary Stadium this term (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Port FC stand at 8W 1D 1L from 10 Thai League 1 matches — 2.50 PPG. Last five: W L W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.20 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Port FC have played only a handful of Thai League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
On the road, Port FC have gone 6W 2D 2L from 10 away fixtures this term (2.00 PPG). They are averaging 1.90 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 2.00 is notably below their overall 2.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Port FC — 1.20 PPG ahead of the hosts (2.50 vs 1.30). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Lamphun Warrior register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Port FC in 70% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Head to Head
Port FC have tended to come out on top in this fixture, winning 5 of the last 9 encounters against Lamphun Warrior's 2 victories.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 9 meetings have averaged 3.2 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 11 Sep 2026, ended 1–2 with Port FC winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Port FC have won 5 of 9 previous encounters, and at 3.2 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
In-Play Profile
Lamphun Warrior in-play tendencies (36 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 77% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (home games).
Port FC in-play tendencies (36 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; they lead at the break 53% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Lamphun Warrior 64% versus Port FC 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Lamphun Warrior 47% | Port FC 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Lamphun Warrior 1.19 xG and Port FC 1.80 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Lamphun Warrior attack 1.001 / defence 1.192 | Port FC attack 1.051 / defence 0.826. League average goals — home 1.440 / away 1.436. Data: 37 Lamphun Warrior games / 36 Port FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Lamphun Warrior 25% | Draw 23% | Port FC 51%. Fair-value odds: Lamphun Warrior 4.00 | Draw 4.35 | Port FC 1.96. Port FC hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (23%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 2.99. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.99 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Port FC as the most likely outcome at 51% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 23% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Port FC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.99 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 57% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 2.7 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.2 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 58% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Lamphun Warrior 60% | Port FC 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Lamphun Warrior vs Port FC | Competition: Thai League 1, Regular Season - 16 | Venue: 700th Anniversary Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 31 Jan 2027, 11:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Lamphun Warrior 25% | Draw 23% | Port FC 51% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 57% | BTTS 58% | xG Lamphun Warrior 1.19 / Port FC 1.80 • Poisson strength factors: Lamphun Warrior attack 1.001 / def 1.192 | Port FC attack 1.051 / def 0.826 | league avg home 1.440 / away 1.436 • Poisson stance: Port FC (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.19
Lamphun Warrior xG
Expected Goals
1.80
Port FC xG
58%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
57%
Over 2.5
35%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Lamphun Warrior vs Port FC kick off?
Lamphun Warrior vs Port FC is scheduled to kick off at 11:30 on Sunday 31 January 2027 at 700th Anniversary Stadium.
Where is Lamphun Warrior vs Port FC being played?
The match is being played at 700th Anniversary Stadium.
What competition is Lamphun Warrior vs Port FC part of?
Lamphun Warrior vs Port FC is a Regular Season - 16 fixture in the Thai League 1 (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Lamphun Warrior vs Port FC?
Our statistical model gives Lamphun Warrior a 25% chance of winning, Port FC a 51% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Port FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Lamphun Warrior vs Port FC?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Lamphun Warrior and Port FC will score (BTTS).
Will Lamphun Warrior vs Port FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 57%.
What is the head-to-head record between Lamphun Warrior and Port FC?
Record (9 meetings): Lamphun Warrior 2W | Draws 2 | Port FC 5W.
What form are Lamphun Warrior and Port FC in?
Lamphun Warrior (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-L-W-W-W. Port FC (all comps): 8W-1D-1L in 10 | 2.50 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-L-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Lamphun Warrior's attack rating (1.00) and Port FC's defence rating (0.83), the model arrives at 1.19 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Port FC's attack versus Lamphun Warrior's defence, projects 1.80 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 37/36 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.2%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.7%), 0-2 (8.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Port FC Win
25%
3.98
23%
4.28
51%
1.94
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.7%
Away win
0 – 1
9.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.19
Lamphun Warrior xG
Total xG
2.99
1.80
Port FC xG
3.98
25%
Home win
4.28
23%
Draw
1.94
51%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
57%
Over 2.5
1.75
43%
Under 2.5
2.33
35%
Over 3.5
2.86
65%
Under 3.5
1.54
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.72
42%
BTTS No
2.39
Clean Sheet
17%
6.03
30%
3.29
Win to Nil
4%
24.00
16%
6.39
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.0 | 9.1 | 8.1 | 4.9 | 2.2 | 0.8 |
| 1 | 6.0 | 10.8 | 9.7 | 5.8 | 2.6 | 0.9 |
| 2 | 3.6 | 6.4 | 5.8 | 3.5 | 1.6 | 0.6 |
| 3 | 1.4 | 2.5 | 2.3 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Lamphun Warrior vs Port FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.2%.
How many goals are Lamphun Warrior and Port FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.19 expected goals for Lamphun Warrior and 1.80 for Port FC, a combined total of 2.99.
How confident is the prediction model for Lamphun Warrior vs Port FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 36 outings, Lamphun Warrior have picked up 1.08 PPG on a 7W 18D 11L record — D-L-W-W-W across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Lamphun Warrior, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Port FC's form line: 23W 6D 7L from 36 games, 2.08 PPG, last five W-L-W-W-W. It's still early in the season for Port FC, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, Port FC are the form team by 1.00 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Lamphun Warrior.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Lamphun Warrior have posted 1.12 PPG from 17 outings (3W 10D 4L).
On the road, Port FC have gone 9W 2D 6L from 17 away games — 1.71 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Port FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Lamphun Warrior are averaging 1.25 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game recently; Port FC are on 2.03 scored and 0.83 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Lamphun Warrior have seen both teams score in 64% of their recent games.
Defensively: Port FC in 42% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 36 Results — Thai League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Lamphun Warrior
Early Season
Port FC
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Lamphun Warrior and Port FC in coming into this match?
Lamphun Warrior have gone 7W 18D 11L in their last 36 games (1.08 PPG), while Port FC have gone 23W 6D 7L in their last 36 (2.08 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Lamphun Warrior at home or Port FC away?
Port FC's away record (1.71 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Lamphun Warrior at home: 1.12 PPG; Port FC away: 1.71 PPG.
Have Lamphun Warrior or Port FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Lamphun Warrior have kept a clean sheet in 19% of their recent games, Port FC in 42%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Lamphun Warrior and Port FC runs to 9 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Thai League 1. The two were last together as recently as 11 September 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Port FC have taken the last 3 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 6 Mar 2026, when Port FC won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Lamphun Warrior's record when hosting Port FC specifically: 2W 1D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 9 Meetings
2
Lamphun Warrior
2
Draws
5
Port FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Lamphun Warrior and Port FC?
From 9 meetings on record, Lamphun Warrior have won 2, Port FC have won 5, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Lamphun Warrior and Port FC last play each other?
They last met on 11 September 2026, when Port FC 2-1 Lamphun Warrior.
Who has won more matches between Lamphun Warrior and Port FC?
Port FC have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 9 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Lamphun Warrior are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 24% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 18% of those situations.
Port FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Lamphun Warrior 71%, Port FC 47% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 53% (Lamphun Warrior) and 41% (Port FC).
On the defensive side: Port FC in 35%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Lamphun Warrior home games / Port FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Lamphun Warrior play Port FC?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 71% of Lamphun Warrior's games and 47% of Port FC's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Lamphun Warrior vs Port FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 53% of Lamphun Warrior's recent games and 41% of Port FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Lamphun Warrior and Port FC tend to score early?
Lamphun Warrior have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Port FC in 65% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.