Lamphun Warrior 1-1 Nakhon Pathom – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Lamphun Warrior at 45%, yet other data sources diverge — this Lamphun Warrior vs Nakhon Pathom fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Lamphun Warrior and Nakhon Pathom meet at Lamphun Warriors Stadium in Thai League 1, Regular Season - 29. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 19 April 2025 at 13:00 UTC.
Current Form
Lamphun Warrior's overall Thai League 1 record this term: 4W 2D 4L from 10 games (1.40 PPG). Last five: D L L W L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
Lamphun Warrior's home record at Lamphun Warriors Stadium: 4W 2D 4L from 10 Thai League 1 appearances (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Nakhon Pathom (all games): 2W 2D 6L across 10 Thai League 1 outings this term — 0.80 points per game. Last five: L W L L D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
On the road, Nakhon Pathom have gone 1W 3D 6L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game.
Form favours the hosts. Lamphun Warrior's 1.40 PPG return is 0.60 points per game ahead of Nakhon Pathom's 0.80 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 3 head-to-head meetings have produced 2 wins for Lamphun Warrior, 1 for Nakhon Pathom and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 30 Nov 2024, ended 3–0 with Lamphun Warrior winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Lamphun Warrior — key trading statistics (58 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (home games).
Nakhon Pathom — key trading statistics (58 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Lamphun Warrior 55% and Nakhon Pathom 66% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Lamphun Warrior 57% | Nakhon Pathom 64%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Lamphun Warrior 1.42 xG and Nakhon Pathom 1.02 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Lamphun Warrior attack 0.919 / defence 0.990 | Nakhon Pathom attack 0.805 / defence 0.915. League average goals — home 1.684 / away 1.287. Data: 58 Lamphun Warrior games / 58 Nakhon Pathom games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Lamphun Warrior 45% | Draw 28% | Nakhon Pathom 27%. Fair-value odds: Lamphun Warrior 2.22 | Draw 3.57 | Nakhon Pathom 3.70. Lamphun Warrior hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.44. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.44 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Lamphun Warrior are the pick at 45% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Lamphun Warrior if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.44 combined xG gives a 44% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 49%. Form rates corroborate: Lamphun Warrior 40% | Nakhon Pathom 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Lamphun Warrior vs Nakhon Pathom | Competition: Thai League 1, Regular Season - 29 | Venue: Lamphun Warriors Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 19 Apr 2025, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Lamphun Warrior 45% | Draw 28% | Nakhon Pathom 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 49% | xG Lamphun Warrior 1.42 / Nakhon Pathom 1.02 • Poisson strength factors: Lamphun Warrior attack 0.919 / def 0.990 | Nakhon Pathom attack 0.805 / def 0.915 | league avg home 1.684 / away 1.287 • Poisson stance: Lamphun Warrior (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.42
Lamphun Warrior xG
Expected Goals
1.02
Nakhon Pathom xG
49%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Lamphun Warrior vs Nakhon Pathom kick off?
Lamphun Warrior vs Nakhon Pathom kicked off at 13:00 on Saturday 19 April 2025 at Lamphun Warriors Stadium.
What was the final score in Lamphun Warrior vs Nakhon Pathom?
Lamphun Warrior 1 - 1 Nakhon Pathom.
Where is Lamphun Warrior vs Nakhon Pathom being played?
The match is being played at Lamphun Warriors Stadium.
What competition is Lamphun Warrior vs Nakhon Pathom part of?
Lamphun Warrior vs Nakhon Pathom is a Regular Season - 29 fixture in the Thai League 1 (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Lamphun Warrior vs Nakhon Pathom?
Our statistical model gives Lamphun Warrior a 45% chance of winning, Nakhon Pathom a 27% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Lamphun Warrior the favourite.
Will both teams score in Lamphun Warrior vs Nakhon Pathom?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Lamphun Warrior and Nakhon Pathom will score (BTTS).
Will Lamphun Warrior vs Nakhon Pathom have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between Lamphun Warrior and Nakhon Pathom?
Record (3 meetings): Lamphun Warrior 2W | Draws 0 | Nakhon Pathom 1W.
What form are Lamphun Warrior and Nakhon Pathom in?
Lamphun Warrior (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-L-L-W-L. Nakhon Pathom (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-W-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Lamphun Warrior's attacking strength (0.92x league average) is weighed against Nakhon Pathom's defensive record (0.92x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.42. Flip it around — Nakhon Pathom's attack (0.81x) against Lamphun Warrior's defence (0.99x) — and the away total comes out at 1.02.
These ratings are built from 58/58 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.3%. Close behind: 1-0 (10.7%), 0-0 (10.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Lamphun Warrior Win
45%
2.20
28%
3.60
27%
3.73
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.3%
Home win
0 – 1
8.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.42
Lamphun Warrior xG
Total xG
2.44
1.02
Nakhon Pathom xG
2.20
45%
Home win
3.60
28%
Draw
3.73
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.04
51%
BTTS No
1.96
Clean Sheet
36%
2.79
24%
4.12
Win to Nil
16%
6.13
7%
15.37
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.7 | 8.9 | 4.6 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.3 | 12.6 | 6.5 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.7 | 8.9 | 4.6 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.1 | 4.2 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Lamphun Warrior vs Nakhon Pathom?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.3%.
How many goals are Lamphun Warrior and Nakhon Pathom expected to score?
The model projects 1.42 expected goals for Lamphun Warrior and 1.02 for Nakhon Pathom, a combined total of 2.44.
How confident is the prediction model for Lamphun Warrior vs Nakhon Pathom?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Lamphun Warrior come into this having played 58 games, going 18W 16D 24L for 1.21 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-L-W-L.
On the other side, Nakhon Pathom sit at 0.95 PPG from 58 outings (13W 16D 29L), a run that reads L-W-L-L-D across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.21 PPG for Lamphun Warrior against 0.95 for Nakhon Pathom. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Lamphun Warrior's home form reads 14W 6D 9L across 29 games on their own ground, a 1.66 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.21 PPG overall — Lamphun Warrior are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Nakhon Pathom have taken 0.83 points per game from 29 outings (5W 9D 15L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Lamphun Warrior come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Lamphun Warrior are averaging 1.36 goals scored and 1.45 conceded per game recently; Nakhon Pathom are on 1.12 scored and 1.81 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Nakhon Pathom in 66%.
Last 58 Results — Thai League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Lamphun Warrior
Current Season
Nakhon Pathom
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Lamphun Warrior and Nakhon Pathom in coming into this match?
Lamphun Warrior have gone 18W 16D 24L in their last 58 games (1.21 PPG), while Nakhon Pathom have gone 13W 16D 29L in their last 58 (0.95 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Lamphun Warrior at home or Nakhon Pathom away?
Lamphun Warrior's home record (1.66 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Lamphun Warrior at home: 1.66 PPG; Nakhon Pathom away: 0.83 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since October 2023 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Thai League 1. It has been a while since the last meeting — 19 April 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Lamphun Warrior won 0-3 on 30 Nov 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Lamphun Warrior have gone 1W 1D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Nakhon Pathom — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Lamphun Warrior
1
Draws
1
Nakhon Pathom
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Lamphun Warrior and Nakhon Pathom?
From 4 meetings on record, Lamphun Warrior have won 2, Nakhon Pathom have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Lamphun Warrior and Nakhon Pathom last play each other?
They last met on 19 April 2025, when Lamphun Warrior 1-1 Nakhon Pathom.
Who has won more matches between Lamphun Warrior and Nakhon Pathom?
Lamphun Warrior have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Lamphun Warrior are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 48% of the time.
Nakhon Pathom are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Lamphun Warrior 62%, Nakhon Pathom 59% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 59% (Lamphun Warrior) and 59% (Nakhon Pathom). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 31% and 34% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Nakhon Pathom in 31%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Lamphun Warrior home games / Nakhon Pathom away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Lamphun Warrior play Nakhon Pathom?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 62% of Lamphun Warrior's games and 59% of Nakhon Pathom's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Lamphun Warrior vs Nakhon Pathom usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 59% of Lamphun Warrior's matches and 59% of Nakhon Pathom's.
Do Lamphun Warrior and Nakhon Pathom tend to score early?
Lamphun Warrior have had a goal before half-time in 83% of their recent matches, Nakhon Pathom in 62% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Lamphun Warrior and Nakhon Pathom share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Lamphun Warrior and Nakhon Pathom finished level at 1-1 at Lamphun Warriors Stadium, Regular Season - 29, in the Thai League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Lamphun Warrior 1.42 xG and Nakhon Pathom 1.02 xG, a combined 2.44. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lamphun Warrior attack 0.92 / defence 0.99 against Nakhon Pathom attack 0.81 / defence 0.92, drawn from 58/58 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Lamphun Warrior 45% | Draw 28% | Nakhon Pathom 27%, with Lamphun Warrior to win its most likely call at 45%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Lamphun Warrior 57%, Nakhon Pathom 64%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Lamphun Warrior's trading profile (58 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.
Nakhon Pathom's trading profile (58 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 66% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Lamphun Warrior 1.21 PPG, Nakhon Pathom 0.95 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Nakhon Pathom (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 1.86 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.