Lamphun Warrior 1-2 Buriram United – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Buriram United (53%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Lamphun Warrior face Buriram United.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Lamphun Warriors Stadium plays host to Lamphun Warrior versus Buriram United in Thai League 1, Regular Season - 25. Kick-off: Wednesday 26 March 2025 at 11:00 UTC.
Form
Lamphun Warrior (all games): 4W 3D 3L across 10 Thai League 1 fixtures this term — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W W W D L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Lamphun Warrior, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Lamphun Warrior at Lamphun Warriors Stadium this season: 5W 2D 3L from 10 home games — 1.70 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Lamphun Warriors Stadium. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Buriram United's overall Thai League 1 record this term: 7W 1D 2L from 10 games (2.20 PPG). Last five: W L W D W. Their attacking form is sharp — 3.40 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Buriram United, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Buriram United have gone 6W 3D 1L from 10 away fixtures this term (2.10 PPG). They are averaging 2.10 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Buriram United are 0.70 PPG clear of Lamphun Warrior in recent Thai League 1 fixtures (2.20 vs 1.50). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
H2H History
Buriram United hold the superior head-to-head record in this fixture, claiming 4 wins from 5 meetings. The hosts have won just 0 times in that span.
The 5 previous meetings have averaged 2.4 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 26 Oct 2024, ended 1–1 with a draw.
It is worth noting that Buriram United have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 4 wins from 5 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.
Trading Data
Lamphun Warrior goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (54 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games).
Buriram United goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (54 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; they lead at the break 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 46%; they keep a clean sheet 52% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Lamphun Warrior 52% versus Buriram United 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Lamphun Warrior 54% | Buriram United 61%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Lamphun Warrior 0.94 xG and Buriram United 1.62 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Lamphun Warrior attack 0.806 / defence 0.978 | Buriram United attack 1.469 / defence 0.709. League average goals — home 1.650 / away 1.128. Buriram United's defence strength of 0.709 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Buriram United have an above-average attack strength of 1.469 — the away xG of 1.62 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 55 Lamphun Warrior games / 54 Buriram United games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Lamphun Warrior 22% | Draw 25% | Buriram United 53%. Fair-value odds: Lamphun Warrior 4.55 | Draw 4.00 | Buriram United 1.89. Buriram United hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.56. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.56 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Buriram United as the most likely outcome at 53% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Buriram United if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.56 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 47% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 49% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Lamphun Warrior 30% | Buriram United 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Lamphun Warrior vs Buriram United | Competition: Thai League 1, Regular Season - 25 | Venue: Lamphun Warriors Stadium • Kick-off: Wednesday 26 Mar 2025, 11:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Lamphun Warrior 22% | Draw 25% | Buriram United 53% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% | BTTS 49% | xG Lamphun Warrior 0.94 / Buriram United 1.62 • Poisson strength factors: Lamphun Warrior attack 0.806 / def 0.978 | Buriram United attack 1.469 / def 0.709 | league avg home 1.650 / away 1.128 • Poisson stance: Buriram United (53%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.94
Lamphun Warrior xG
Expected Goals
1.62
Buriram United xG
49%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Lamphun Warrior vs Buriram United kick off?
Lamphun Warrior vs Buriram United kicked off at 11:00 on Wednesday 26 March 2025 at Lamphun Warriors Stadium.
What was the final score in Lamphun Warrior vs Buriram United?
Lamphun Warrior 1 - 2 Buriram United.
Where is Lamphun Warrior vs Buriram United being played?
The match is being played at Lamphun Warriors Stadium.
What competition is Lamphun Warrior vs Buriram United part of?
Lamphun Warrior vs Buriram United is a Regular Season - 25 fixture in the Thai League 1 (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Lamphun Warrior vs Buriram United?
Our statistical model gives Lamphun Warrior a 22% chance of winning, Buriram United a 53% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Buriram United the favourite.
Will both teams score in Lamphun Warrior vs Buriram United?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Lamphun Warrior and Buriram United will score (BTTS).
Will Lamphun Warrior vs Buriram United have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%.
What is the head-to-head record between Lamphun Warrior and Buriram United?
Record (5 meetings): Lamphun Warrior 0W | Draws 1 | Buriram United 4W.
What form are Lamphun Warrior and Buriram United in?
Lamphun Warrior (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-W-W-D-L. Buriram United (all comps): 7W-1D-2L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 3.40 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-L-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Lamphun Warrior's attacking strength (0.81x league average) is weighed against Buriram United's defensive record (0.71x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.94. Flip it around — Buriram United's attack (1.47x) against Lamphun Warrior's defence (0.98x) — and the away total comes out at 1.62.
These ratings are built from 55/54 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.3%. Close behind: 0-1 (10.9%), 0-2 (10.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Buriram United Win
22%
4.59
25%
3.97
53%
1.89
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
12.5%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.8%
Draw
0 – 2
10.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.94
Lamphun Warrior xG
Total xG
2.56
1.62
Buriram United xG
4.59
22%
Home win
3.97
25%
Draw
1.89
53%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.03
51%
BTTS No
1.97
Clean Sheet
20%
5.05
39%
2.57
Win to Nil
4%
23.19
21%
4.85
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.7 | 12.5 | 10.1 | 5.5 | 2.2 | 0.7 |
| 1 | 7.3 | 11.8 | 9.5 | 5.2 | 2.1 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 3.4 | 5.6 | 4.5 | 2.4 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 1.1 | 1.7 | 1.4 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Lamphun Warrior vs Buriram United?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.3%.
How many goals are Lamphun Warrior and Buriram United expected to score?
The model projects 0.94 expected goals for Lamphun Warrior and 1.62 for Buriram United, a combined total of 2.56.
How confident is the prediction model for Lamphun Warrior vs Buriram United?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 53%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 54 outings, Lamphun Warrior have picked up 1.24 PPG on a 17W 16D 21L record — W-W-W-D-L across the most recent five. The sample for Lamphun Warrior is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Buriram United's form line: 38W 13D 3L from 54 games, 2.35 PPG, last five W-L-W-D-W. The sample for Buriram United is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Buriram United are the form team by 1.11 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Lamphun Warrior.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Lamphun Warrior have posted 1.73 PPG from 26 outings (13W 6D 7L). That's noticeably better than their 1.24 PPG overall — Lamphun Warrior are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Buriram United have gone 17W 7D 2L from 26 away games — 2.23 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Buriram United come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Lamphun Warrior are averaging 1.35 goals scored and 1.41 conceded per game recently; Buriram United are on 2.70 scored and 0.72 conceded.
Defensively: Buriram United in 52% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 54 Results — Thai League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Lamphun Warrior
Blended
Buriram United
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Lamphun Warrior and Buriram United in coming into this match?
Lamphun Warrior have gone 17W 16D 21L in their last 54 games (1.24 PPG), while Buriram United have gone 38W 13D 3L in their last 54 (2.35 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Lamphun Warrior at home or Buriram United away?
Buriram United's away record (2.23 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Lamphun Warrior at home: 1.73 PPG; Buriram United away: 2.23 PPG.
Have Lamphun Warrior or Buriram United been keeping clean sheets recently?
Lamphun Warrior have kept a clean sheet in 24% of their recent games, Buriram United in 52%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 8 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Thai League 1. They last met on 10 May 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Buriram United won 3-0 on 20 Aug 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Lamphun Warrior have gone 0W 0D 4L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Buriram United — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
0
Lamphun Warrior
2
Draws
6
Buriram United
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Lamphun Warrior and Buriram United?
From 8 meetings on record, Lamphun Warrior have won 0, Buriram United have won 6, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Lamphun Warrior and Buriram United last play each other?
They last met on 10 May 2026, when Buriram United 1-1 Lamphun Warrior.
Who has won more matches between Lamphun Warrior and Buriram United?
Buriram United have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Lamphun Warrior are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 46% of the time.
Buriram United are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Lamphun Warrior 58%, Buriram United 58% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 54% (Lamphun Warrior) and 58% (Buriram United). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 31% and 38% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Lamphun Warrior keep a clean sheet in 31% of their matches; Buriram United in 42%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Lamphun Warrior home games / Buriram United away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Lamphun Warrior play Buriram United?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 58% of Lamphun Warrior's games and 58% of Buriram United's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Lamphun Warrior vs Buriram United usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 54% of Lamphun Warrior's matches and 58% of Buriram United's.
Do Lamphun Warrior and Buriram United tend to score early?
Lamphun Warrior have had a goal before half-time in 81% of their recent matches, Buriram United in 65% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Buriram United edge out Lamphun Warrior 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Buriram United beat Lamphun Warrior 1-2 at Lamphun Warriors Stadium, Regular Season - 25, in the Thai League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Lamphun Warrior 0.94 xG and Buriram United 1.62 xG, a combined 2.56. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lamphun Warrior attack 0.81 / defence 0.98 against Buriram United attack 1.47 / defence 0.71, drawn from 55/54 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Lamphun Warrior 22% | Draw 25% | Buriram United 53%, with Buriram United to win its most likely call at 53%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Lamphun Warrior 54%, Buriram United 61%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Lamphun Warrior's trading profile (54 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.
Buriram United's trading profile (54 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 52% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Buriram United arrived the stronger side — 2.35 PPG against 1.24. That form edge translated into the three points. Lamphun Warrior (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.19 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.