Khon Kaen United 0-1 Rayong FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Khon Kaen United at 47%, yet other data sources diverge — this Khon Kaen United vs Rayong FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Khon Kaen United host Rayong FC at Khon Kaen Stadium in Thai League 1, Regular Season - 15. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 30 November 2024 at 11:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Khon Kaen United stand at 1W 3D 6L from 10 Thai League 1 matches — 0.60 PPG. Last five: W D L L L. They are averaging 0.40 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. This season is still relatively young for Khon Kaen United, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Khon Kaen United's home record at Khon Kaen Stadium: 1W 4D 5L from 10 Thai League 1 appearances (0.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.
Across all Thai League 1 games this season, Rayong FC have recorded 2W 3D 5L from 10 outings — 0.90 PPG. Last five: W L W D D. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Rayong FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Rayong FC have gone 1W 0D 5L from 6 away fixtures this term (0.50 PPG). Away from home they average 0.67 goals scored and 2.50 conceded per game.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Khon Kaen United 0.60 PPG, Rayong FC 0.90 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
Trading Patterns
Khon Kaen United in-play and half-time data (14 games, 6 at home): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 40% of the time; BTTS occurs in 17% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they fail to score in 64% of games.
Rayong FC in-play and half-time data (14 games, 6 at away): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in away games; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 43%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Khon Kaen United 29% versus Rayong FC 64%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Khon Kaen United 36% | Rayong FC 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Khon Kaen United 1.49 xG and Rayong FC 0.95 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Khon Kaen United attack 0.666 / defence 1.127 | Rayong FC attack 0.755 / defence 1.294. League average goals — home 1.725 / away 1.121. Khon Kaen United's attack strength of 0.666 is below the league average — the 1.49 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Rayong FC bring a strong defensive rating of 1.294 — this is suppressing Khon Kaen United's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 44 Khon Kaen United games / 14 Rayong FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Khon Kaen United 47% | Draw 32% | Rayong FC 21%. Fair-value odds: Khon Kaen United 2.13 | Draw 3.12 | Rayong FC 4.76. Khon Kaen United hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (32%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.44. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.44 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Khon Kaen United at 47% — moderate model lean. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Khon Kaen United offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.44 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 44% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though form averaging only 2.9 goals per game points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 50% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Khon Kaen United 50% | Rayong FC 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Khon Kaen United vs Rayong FC | Competition: Thai League 1, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: Khon Kaen Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 30 Nov 2024, 11:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Khon Kaen United 47% | Draw 32% | Rayong FC 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 50% | xG Khon Kaen United 1.49 / Rayong FC 0.95 • Poisson strength factors: Khon Kaen United attack 0.666 / def 1.127 | Rayong FC attack 0.755 / def 1.294 | league avg home 1.725 / away 1.121 • Poisson stance: Khon Kaen United (47%) — moderate lean
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
1.49
Khon Kaen United xG
Expected Goals
0.95
Rayong FC xG
50%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Khon Kaen United vs Rayong FC kick off?
Khon Kaen United vs Rayong FC kicked off at 11:00 on Saturday 30 November 2024 at Khon Kaen Stadium.
What was the final score in Khon Kaen United vs Rayong FC?
Khon Kaen United 0 - 1 Rayong FC.
Where is Khon Kaen United vs Rayong FC being played?
The match is being played at Khon Kaen Stadium.
What competition is Khon Kaen United vs Rayong FC part of?
Khon Kaen United vs Rayong FC is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the Thai League 1 (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Khon Kaen United vs Rayong FC?
Our statistical model gives Khon Kaen United a 47% chance of winning, Rayong FC a 21% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Khon Kaen United the favourite.
Will both teams score in Khon Kaen United vs Rayong FC?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Khon Kaen United and Rayong FC will score (BTTS).
Will Khon Kaen United vs Rayong FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between Khon Kaen United and Rayong FC?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Khon Kaen United and Rayong FC in?
Khon Kaen United (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.40 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-D-L-L-L. Rayong FC (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 2.00 | L5 W-L-W-D-D.
What do the betting odds say about Khon Kaen United vs Rayong FC?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Khon Kaen United's attack rating (0.67) and Rayong FC's defence rating (1.29), the model arrives at 1.49 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Rayong FC's attack versus Khon Kaen United's defence, projects 0.95 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 44/14 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.0%. Close behind: 1-0 (11.3%), 0-0 (10.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Khon Kaen United Win
47%
2.14
32%
3.13
21%
4.69
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.9%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
2 – 0
9.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.49
Khon Kaen United xG
Total xG
2.44
0.95
Rayong FC xG
2.14
47%
Home win
3.13
32%
Draw
4.69
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
1.98
50%
BTTS No
2.02
Clean Sheet
39%
2.60
23%
4.43
Win to Nil
18%
5.56
5%
20.79
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.7 | 8.3 | 4.0 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.9 | 12.3 | 5.9 | 1.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.6 | 9.2 | 4.4 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.8 | 4.6 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.8 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Khon Kaen United vs Rayong FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.0%.
How many goals are Khon Kaen United and Rayong FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.49 expected goals for Khon Kaen United and 0.95 for Rayong FC, a combined total of 2.44.
How confident is the prediction model for Khon Kaen United vs Rayong FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 14 outings, Khon Kaen United have picked up 0.50 PPG on a 1W 4D 9L record — W-D-L-L-L across the most recent five. The sample for Khon Kaen United is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Rayong FC's form line: 3W 4D 7L from 14 games, 0.93 PPG, last five W-L-W-D-D. The sample for Rayong FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Rayong FC are the form team by 0.43 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Khon Kaen United.
Venue Form
On home soil, Khon Kaen United have posted 0.33 PPG from 6 outings (0W 2D 4L).
On the road, Rayong FC have gone 1W 0D 5L from 6 away games — 0.50 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 0.93 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Rayong FC's season.
Goals in Recent Form
Khon Kaen United are averaging 0.43 goals scored and 1.71 conceded per game recently; Rayong FC are on 1.07 scored and 1.93 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Khon Kaen United have seen both teams score in 29% of their recent games; Rayong FC in 64%.
Last 14 Results — Thai League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Khon Kaen United
Blended
Rayong FC
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Khon Kaen United and Rayong FC in coming into this match?
Khon Kaen United have gone 1W 4D 9L in their last 14 games (0.50 PPG), while Rayong FC have gone 3W 4D 7L in their last 14 (0.93 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Khon Kaen United at home or Rayong FC away?
Rayong FC's away record (0.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Khon Kaen United at home: 0.33 PPG; Rayong FC away: 0.50 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
2 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Thai League 1. It has been a while since the last meeting — 20 April 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Khon Kaen United
0
Draws
2
Rayong FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Khon Kaen United and Rayong FC?
From 2 meetings on record, Khon Kaen United have won 0, Rayong FC have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Khon Kaen United and Rayong FC last play each other?
They last met on 20 April 2025, when Rayong FC 4-0 Khon Kaen United.
Who has won more matches between Khon Kaen United and Rayong FC?
Rayong FC have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Khon Kaen United see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches.
Rayong FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
Clean sheets have been more common than shared scoring for these two — Khon Kaen United 17% BTTS, Rayong FC 50%. That points toward BTTS No as the trading lean.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Khon Kaen United) and 67% (Rayong FC). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 17% and 50% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Khon Kaen United keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Khon Kaen United have failed to score in 83% of games; Rayong FC in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Khon Kaen United home games / Rayong FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Khon Kaen United play Rayong FC?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 17% of Khon Kaen United's recent matches and 50% of Rayong FC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Khon Kaen United vs Rayong FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 50% of Khon Kaen United's matches and 67% of Rayong FC's.
Do Khon Kaen United and Rayong FC tend to score early?
Khon Kaen United have had a goal before half-time in 50% of their recent matches, Rayong FC in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Rayong FC defy the odds to beat Khon Kaen United 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Rayong FC beat Khon Kaen United 0-1 at Khon Kaen Stadium, Regular Season - 15, in the Thai League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Khon Kaen United 1.49 xG and Rayong FC 0.95 xG, a combined 2.44. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Khon Kaen United fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Khon Kaen United attack 0.67 / defence 1.13 against Rayong FC attack 0.76 / defence 1.29, drawn from 44/14 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Khon Kaen United 47% | Draw 32% | Rayong FC 21%, with Khon Kaen United to win its most likely call at 47%. Instead the game produced a Rayong FC win, an outcome the model had rated at just 21% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 73% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Khon Kaen United 36%, Rayong FC 57%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Khon Kaen United's trading profile (14 games, 6 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 29% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 64% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Rayong FC's trading profile (14 games, 6 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Rayong FC arrived the stronger side — 0.93 PPG against 0.50. Form held, and they took the win. Rayong FC (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 2.50 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.