Chonburi FC 2-3 Rayong FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Chonburi FC at 53%, yet other data sources diverge — this Chonburi FC vs Rayong FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Thai League 1 clash, Regular Season - 2 as Chonburi FC welcome Rayong FC to IPE Chonburi Campus Stadium. Kick-off is set for Sunday 13 September 2026 at 12:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Chonburi FC stand at 4W 2D 4L from 10 Thai League 1 matches — 1.40 PPG. Last five: L D D W L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Chonburi FC have played only a handful of Thai League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Chonburi FC's home record at IPE Chonburi Campus Stadium: 6W 3D 1L from 10 Thai League 1 appearances (2.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.10 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.40 — Chonburi FC are significantly better at IPE Chonburi Campus Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Rayong FC — All Games: 3W 3D 4L from 10 Thai League 1 fixtures this season — 1.20 PPG. Last five: D W L D W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. Rayong FC have played only a handful of Thai League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Rayong FC's form when playing away from home: 1W 2D 7L across 10 road games this term (0.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 2.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.50 is notably below their overall 1.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.40 PPG (Chonburi FC) versus 1.20 (Rayong FC). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Chonburi FC register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Rayong FC in 80% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 2 previous meetings, Chonburi FC have won 1, Rayong FC 1, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 2 meetings have averaged 3.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 5 Apr 2026, ended 4–1 with Chonburi FC winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Chonburi FC in-play and half-time data (31 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 53% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (home games); they fail to score in 39% of games.
Rayong FC in-play and half-time data (31 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; when trailing at the break they recover to draw or win in 26% of cases; BTTS occurs in 80% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Chonburi FC 55% and Rayong FC 74% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Chonburi FC 45% | Rayong FC 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Chonburi FC 1.74 xG and Rayong FC 1.06 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Chonburi FC attack 1.041 / defence 0.954 | Rayong FC attack 0.983 / defence 1.224. League average goals — home 1.365 / away 1.133. Rayong FC bring a strong defensive rating of 1.224 — this is suppressing Chonburi FC's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 31 Chonburi FC games / 31 Rayong FC games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Chonburi FC 53% | Draw 24% | Rayong FC 23%. Fair-value odds: Chonburi FC 1.89 | Draw 4.17 | Rayong FC 4.35. Chonburi FC hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.80. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.80 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Chonburi FC at 53% — moderate model lean. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Chonburi FC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.80 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 53% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 54%. Form rates corroborate: Chonburi FC 60% | Rayong FC 80% BTTS from recent games.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (31 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Chonburi FC vs Rayong FC | Competition: Thai League 1, Regular Season - 2 | Venue: IPE Chonburi Campus Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 13 Sep 2026, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Chonburi FC 53% | Draw 24% | Rayong FC 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% | BTTS 54% | xG Chonburi FC 1.74 / Rayong FC 1.06 • Poisson strength factors: Chonburi FC attack 1.041 / def 0.954 | Rayong FC attack 0.983 / def 1.224 | league avg home 1.365 / away 1.133 • Poisson stance: Chonburi FC (53%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.74
Chonburi FC xG
Expected Goals
1.06
Rayong FC xG
54%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Chonburi FC vs Rayong FC kick off?
Chonburi FC vs Rayong FC kicked off at 12:00 on Sunday 13 September 2026 at IPE Chonburi Campus Stadium.
What was the final score in Chonburi FC vs Rayong FC?
Chonburi FC 2 - 3 Rayong FC.
Where is Chonburi FC vs Rayong FC being played?
The match is being played at IPE Chonburi Campus Stadium.
What competition is Chonburi FC vs Rayong FC part of?
Chonburi FC vs Rayong FC is a Regular Season - 2 fixture in the Thai League 1 (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Chonburi FC vs Rayong FC?
Our statistical model gives Chonburi FC a 53% chance of winning, Rayong FC a 23% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Chonburi FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Chonburi FC vs Rayong FC?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Chonburi FC and Rayong FC will score (BTTS).
Will Chonburi FC vs Rayong FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%.
What is the head-to-head record between Chonburi FC and Rayong FC?
Record (2 meetings): Chonburi FC 1W | Draws 0 | Rayong FC 1W.
What form are Chonburi FC and Rayong FC in?
Chonburi FC (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-D-D-W-L. Rayong FC (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 2.00 | L5 D-W-L-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Chonburi FC's attack rating (1.04) and Rayong FC's defence rating (1.22), the model arrives at 1.74 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Rayong FC's attack versus Chonburi FC's defence, projects 1.06 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (31/31 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.7%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.8%), 2-0 (9.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Chonburi FC Win
53%
1.88
24%
4.22
23%
4.33
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.6%
Home win
2 – 1
9.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.74
Chonburi FC xG
Total xG
2.80
1.06
Rayong FC xG
1.88
53%
Home win
4.22
24%
Draw
4.33
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.85
46%
BTTS No
2.17
Clean Sheet
35%
2.89
18%
5.69
Win to Nil
18%
5.43
4%
24.64
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.1 | 6.5 | 3.4 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.6 | 11.2 | 6.0 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.2 | 9.8 | 5.2 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.3 | 5.7 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.3 | 2.5 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.8 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Chonburi FC vs Rayong FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.7%.
How many goals are Chonburi FC and Rayong FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.74 expected goals for Chonburi FC and 1.06 for Rayong FC, a combined total of 2.80.
How confident is the prediction model for Chonburi FC vs Rayong FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 53%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Chonburi FC's recent record stands at 10W 9D 12L from 31 games, a 1.26 PPG return, with L-D-D-W-L in the last five. It's still early in the season for Chonburi FC, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Rayong FC, meanwhile, have gone 10W 10D 11L across 31 games — 1.29 PPG, with D-W-L-D-W in their last five. It's still early in the season for Rayong FC, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Chonburi FC on 1.26 PPG, Rayong FC on 1.29. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Chonburi FC have managed 6W 5D 4L from 15 games — 1.53 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Rayong FC's away record stands at 2W 4D 9L across 15 trips, a 0.67 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.29 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Rayong FC's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Chonburi FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Chonburi FC are averaging 1.23 goals scored and 1.35 conceded per game recently; Rayong FC are on 1.45 scored and 1.58 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Rayong FC in 74%.
Last 31 Results — Thai League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Chonburi FC
Early Season
Rayong FC
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Chonburi FC and Rayong FC in coming into this match?
Chonburi FC have gone 10W 9D 12L in their last 31 games (1.26 PPG), while Rayong FC have gone 10W 10D 11L in their last 31 (1.29 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Chonburi FC at home or Rayong FC away?
Chonburi FC's home record (1.53 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Chonburi FC at home: 1.53 PPG; Rayong FC away: 0.67 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Chonburi FC and Rayong FC runs to 3 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2025. Every recorded meeting has come in Thai League 1. The two were last together as recently as 13 September 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 5 Apr 2026, when Chonburi FC won 4-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Chonburi FC's record when hosting Rayong FC specifically: 1W 0D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 3 Meetings
1
Chonburi FC
0
Draws
2
Rayong FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Chonburi FC and Rayong FC?
From 3 meetings on record, Chonburi FC have won 1, Rayong FC have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Chonburi FC and Rayong FC last play each other?
They last met on 13 September 2026, when Chonburi FC 2-3 Rayong FC.
Who has won more matches between Chonburi FC and Rayong FC?
Rayong FC have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 3 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Chonburi FC see a goal before the break in 53% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Rayong FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Chonburi FC at 60%, Rayong FC at 80%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 33% (Chonburi FC) and 60% (Rayong FC).
On the defensive side: Chonburi FC have failed to score in 27% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Chonburi FC home games / Rayong FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Chonburi FC play Rayong FC?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 60% of Chonburi FC's games and 80% of Rayong FC's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Chonburi FC vs Rayong FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Chonburi FC's recent games and 60% of Rayong FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Chonburi FC and Rayong FC tend to score early?
Chonburi FC have had a goal before half-time in 53% of their recent matches, Rayong FC in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Rayong FC defy the odds to beat Chonburi FC 2-3.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Rayong FC beat Chonburi FC 2-3 at IPE Chonburi Campus Stadium, Regular Season - 2, in the Thai League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Chonburi FC 1.74 xG and Rayong FC 1.06 xG, a combined 2.80. The scoreboard read 2-3 for 5 actual goals. Rayong FC outscored their 1.06 projection by 1.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Chonburi FC attack 1.04 / defence 0.95 against Rayong FC attack 0.98 / defence 1.22, drawn from 31/31 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Chonburi FC 53% | Draw 24% | Rayong FC 23%, with Chonburi FC to win its most likely call at 53%. Instead the game produced a Rayong FC win, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. Over 3.5 was 31% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Chonburi FC 45%, Rayong FC 52%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 64%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Chonburi FC's trading profile (31 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.
Rayong FC's trading profile (31 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 74% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Chonburi FC 1.26 PPG, Rayong FC 1.29 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Rayong FC win broke the near-deadlock. Chonburi FC (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Rayong FC (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.13 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.