Chonburi FC 0-2 Port FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Port FC at 49% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Chonburi FC vs Port FC encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Thai League 1 encounter, Regular Season - 13 sees Port FC travel to Chonburi UTA Stadium to take on Chonburi FC. The game is scheduled for Sunday 10 December 2023, 11:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Chonburi FC — All Games: 2W 3D 5L from 10 Thai League 1 outings this season, averaging 0.90 points per game. Last five: D W L L L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Chonburi FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Chonburi FC at Chonburi UTA Stadium this season: 3W 2D 5L from 10 home games — 1.10 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
Across all Thai League 1 games this season, Port FC have recorded 5W 1D 4L from 10 outings — 1.60 PPG. Last five: W L L D L. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.50 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Port FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Port FC have gone 4W 3D 3L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.50 PPG). They are averaging 2.10 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 100% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Port FC — 0.70 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.60 vs 0.90). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 4 previous encounters have yielded 3 wins for Chonburi FC, 1 for Port FC and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 4 meetings have averaged 3.2 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 7 May 2023, ended 1–3 with Port FC winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.2 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Chonburi FC trading profile (41 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
Port FC trading profile (41 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 84% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 51%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Chonburi FC 56% and Port FC 80% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Chonburi FC 51% | Port FC 66%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Chonburi FC 1.20 xG and Port FC 1.74 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Chonburi FC attack 0.738 / defence 1.090 | Port FC attack 1.259 / defence 0.981. League average goals — home 1.659 / away 1.271. Chonburi FC's attack strength of 0.738 is below the league average — the 1.20 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Port FC have an above-average attack strength of 1.259 — the away xG of 1.74 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 41 Chonburi FC games / 42 Port FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Chonburi FC 26% | Draw 25% | Port FC 49%. Fair-value odds: Chonburi FC 3.85 | Draw 4.00 | Port FC 2.04. Port FC hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 2.94. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.94 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Chonburi FC dominate the H2H record, yet Port FC are the in-form side right now — historical edge versus current momentum creates a genuine dilemma.
Poisson rates Port FC as the most likely outcome at 49% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Port FC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.94 combined xG gives a 56% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.2 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 58% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Chonburi FC 50% | Port FC 100% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Chonburi FC vs Port FC | Competition: Thai League 1, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: Chonburi UTA Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 10 Dec 2023, 11:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Chonburi FC 26% | Draw 25% | Port FC 49% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% | BTTS 58% | xG Chonburi FC 1.20 / Port FC 1.74 • Poisson strength factors: Chonburi FC attack 0.738 / def 1.090 | Port FC attack 1.259 / def 0.981 | league avg home 1.659 / away 1.271 • Poisson stance: Port FC (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.20
Chonburi FC xG
Expected Goals
1.74
Port FC xG
58%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
34%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Chonburi FC vs Port FC kick off?
Chonburi FC vs Port FC kicked off at 11:00 on Sunday 10 December 2023 at Chonburi UTA Stadium.
What was the final score in Chonburi FC vs Port FC?
Chonburi FC 0 - 2 Port FC.
Where is Chonburi FC vs Port FC being played?
The match is being played at Chonburi UTA Stadium.
What competition is Chonburi FC vs Port FC part of?
Chonburi FC vs Port FC is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the Thai League 1 (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Chonburi FC vs Port FC?
Our statistical model gives Chonburi FC a 26% chance of winning, Port FC a 49% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Port FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Chonburi FC vs Port FC?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Chonburi FC and Port FC will score (BTTS).
Will Chonburi FC vs Port FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%.
What is the head-to-head record between Chonburi FC and Port FC?
Record (4 meetings): Chonburi FC 3W | Draws 0 | Port FC 1W.
What form are Chonburi FC and Port FC in?
Chonburi FC (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-W-L-L-L. Port FC (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 2.50 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-L-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Chonburi FC's attacking strength (0.74x league average) is weighed against Port FC's defensive record (0.98x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.20. The same calculation in reverse, Port FC's attack versus Chonburi FC's defence, projects 1.74 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 41/42 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.5%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.6%), 0-2 (8.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Port FC Win
26%
3.89
25%
4.03
49%
2.02
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.6%
Away win
0 – 1
9.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.20
Chonburi FC xG
Total xG
2.94
1.74
Port FC xG
3.89
26%
Home win
4.03
25%
Draw
2.02
49%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
34%
Over 3.5
2.94
66%
Under 3.5
1.52
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.72
42%
BTTS No
2.40
Clean Sheet
17%
5.71
30%
3.32
Win to Nil
5%
22.22
15%
6.72
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.3 | 9.2 | 8.0 | 4.6 | 2.0 | 0.7 |
| 1 | 6.3 | 11.0 | 9.6 | 5.6 | 2.4 | 0.8 |
| 2 | 3.8 | 6.6 | 5.8 | 3.4 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 1.5 | 2.6 | 2.3 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Chonburi FC vs Port FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.5%.
How many goals are Chonburi FC and Port FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.20 expected goals for Chonburi FC and 1.74 for Port FC, a combined total of 2.94.
How confident is the prediction model for Chonburi FC vs Port FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Chonburi FC come into this having played 41 games, going 15W 8D 18L for 1.29 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-L-L-L. The sample for Chonburi FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Port FC sit at 1.73 PPG from 41 outings (20W 11D 10L), a run that reads W-L-L-D-L across their last five. The sample for Port FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Port FC carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.44 PPG clear of Chonburi FC — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Chonburi FC's home form reads 9W 3D 7L across 19 games on their own ground, a 1.58 PPG return.
Away from home, Port FC have taken 1.47 points per game from 19 outings (7W 7D 5L).
The Goals Picture
Chonburi FC are averaging 1.44 goals scored and 1.37 conceded per game recently; Port FC are on 2.00 scored and 1.39 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Port FC in 80%.
Last 41 Results — Thai League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Chonburi FC
Blended
Port FC
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Chonburi FC and Port FC in coming into this match?
Chonburi FC have gone 15W 8D 18L in their last 41 games (1.29 PPG), while Port FC have gone 20W 11D 10L in their last 41 (1.73 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Chonburi FC at home or Port FC away?
Chonburi FC's home record (1.58 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Chonburi FC at home: 1.58 PPG; Port FC away: 1.47 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Chonburi FC and Port FC runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Thai League 1. They last met on 31 January 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 19 Sep 2025, when Port FC won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Chonburi FC's record when hosting Port FC specifically: 3W 0D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
4
Chonburi FC
0
Draws
4
Port FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Chonburi FC and Port FC?
From 8 meetings on record, Chonburi FC have won 4, Port FC have won 4, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Chonburi FC and Port FC last play each other?
They last met on 31 January 2026, when Chonburi FC 3-2 Port FC.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Chonburi FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 37% of the time.
Port FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 26% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Chonburi FC at 47%, Port FC at 84%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 47% (Chonburi FC) and 63% (Port FC). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 32% and 47% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Chonburi FC keep a clean sheet in 37% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Chonburi FC home games / Port FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Chonburi FC play Port FC?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 47% of Chonburi FC's games and 84% of Port FC's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Chonburi FC vs Port FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 47% of Chonburi FC's matches and 63% of Port FC's.
Do Chonburi FC and Port FC tend to score early?
Chonburi FC have had a goal before half-time in 74% of their recent matches, Port FC in 79% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Port FC cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Chonburi FC.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Port FC beat Chonburi FC 0-2 at Chonburi UTA Stadium, Regular Season - 13, in the Thai League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Chonburi FC 1.20 xG and Port FC 1.74 xG, a combined 2.94. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Chonburi FC fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Chonburi FC attack 0.74 / defence 1.09 against Port FC attack 1.26 / defence 0.98, drawn from 41/42 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Chonburi FC 26% | Draw 25% | Port FC 49%, with Port FC to win its most likely call at 49%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Chonburi FC 51%, Port FC 66%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 68%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Chonburi FC's trading profile (41 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not.
Port FC's trading profile (41 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 80% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Port FC arrived the stronger side — 1.73 PPG against 1.29. That form edge translated into the three points. Chonburi FC (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.42 scoring average — below par going forward. Port FC (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.37 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.