Chonburi FC 1-1 Buriram United – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Buriram United (37%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Chonburi FC face Buriram United.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Chonburi FC and Buriram United meet at Chonburi UTA Stadium in Thai League 1, Regular Season - 21. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 10 March 2024 at 11:00 UTC.
Current Form
Chonburi FC's overall Thai League 1 record this term: 3W 2D 5L from 10 games (1.10 PPG). Last five: L W L W D. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Chonburi FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Chonburi FC's home record at Chonburi UTA Stadium: 5W 2D 3L from 10 Thai League 1 appearances (1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.10 — Chonburi FC are significantly better at Chonburi UTA Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Buriram United have collected 2.70 PPG across 10 Thai League 1 outings this season: 9W 0D 1L. Last five: W W W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 3.10 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Buriram United, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Buriram United's form when playing away from home: 6W 3D 1L across 10 road games this term (2.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 2.10 is notably below their overall 2.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Buriram United are 1.60 PPG clear of Chonburi FC in recent Thai League 1 fixtures (2.70 vs 1.10). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Chonburi FC lead 1W to 3W over the last 5 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.2 per game across 5 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 8 Oct 2023, ended 2–2 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.2 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading
Chonburi FC half-time and goal-timing data (50 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
Buriram United half-time and goal-timing data (50 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; they lead at the break 56% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 46%; they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Chonburi FC 58% versus Buriram United 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Chonburi FC 52% | Buriram United 64%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Chonburi FC 1.57 xG and Buriram United 1.60 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Chonburi FC attack 0.984 / defence 1.047 | Buriram United attack 1.277 / defence 0.949. League average goals — home 1.686 / away 1.196. Buriram United have an above-average attack strength of 1.277 — the away xG of 1.60 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 50 Chonburi FC games / 50 Buriram United games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Chonburi FC 36% | Draw 27% | Buriram United 37%. Fair-value odds: Chonburi FC 2.78 | Draw 3.70 | Buriram United 2.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 61% | BTTS probability 65% | Total xG 3.17. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 61% — the 3.17 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 65% reflects that both xG figures (1.57 / 1.60) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Buriram United are the pick at 37% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Buriram United if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.17 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 61% — reasonable confidence, supported by H2H averaging 3.2 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 65% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Chonburi FC 50% | Buriram United 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Chonburi FC vs Buriram United | Competition: Thai League 1, Regular Season - 21 | Venue: Chonburi UTA Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 10 Mar 2024, 11:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Chonburi FC 36% | Draw 27% | Buriram United 37% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 61% | BTTS 65% | xG Chonburi FC 1.57 / Buriram United 1.60 • Poisson strength factors: Chonburi FC attack 0.984 / def 1.047 | Buriram United attack 1.277 / def 0.949 | league avg home 1.686 / away 1.196 • Poisson stance: Buriram United (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.57
Chonburi FC xG
Expected Goals
1.60
Buriram United xG
65%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
61%
Over 2.5
39%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Chonburi FC vs Buriram United kick off?
Chonburi FC vs Buriram United kicked off at 11:00 on Sunday 10 March 2024 at Chonburi UTA Stadium.
What was the final score in Chonburi FC vs Buriram United?
Chonburi FC 1 - 1 Buriram United.
Where is Chonburi FC vs Buriram United being played?
The match is being played at Chonburi UTA Stadium.
What competition is Chonburi FC vs Buriram United part of?
Chonburi FC vs Buriram United is a Regular Season - 21 fixture in the Thai League 1 (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Chonburi FC vs Buriram United?
Our statistical model gives Chonburi FC a 36% chance of winning, Buriram United a 37% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Buriram United the favourite.
Will both teams score in Chonburi FC vs Buriram United?
Our model estimates a 65% probability that both Chonburi FC and Buriram United will score (BTTS).
Will Chonburi FC vs Buriram United have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 61%.
What is the head-to-head record between Chonburi FC and Buriram United?
Record (5 meetings): Chonburi FC 1W | Draws 1 | Buriram United 3W.
What form are Chonburi FC and Buriram United in?
Chonburi FC (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-W-L-W-D. Buriram United (all comps): 9W-0D-1L in 10 | 2.70 PPG | GF 3.10 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-W-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Chonburi FC's attacking strength (0.98x league average) is weighed against Buriram United's defensive record (0.95x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.57. Flip it around — Buriram United's attack (1.28x) against Chonburi FC's defence (1.05x) — and the away total comes out at 1.60.
These ratings are built from 50/50 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.9%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.4%), 2-1 (8.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Buriram United Win
36%
2.79
27%
3.66
37%
2.71
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.4%
Away win
2 – 1
8.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.57
Chonburi FC xG
Total xG
3.17
1.60
Buriram United xG
2.79
36%
Home win
3.66
27%
Draw
2.71
37%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
61%
Over 2.5
1.64
39%
Under 2.5
2.56
39%
Over 3.5
2.56
61%
Under 3.5
1.64
21%
Over 4.5
4.76
79%
Under 4.5
1.27
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
65%
BTTS Yes
1.53
35%
BTTS No
2.87
Clean Sheet
20%
4.95
21%
4.82
Win to Nil
7%
13.83
8%
13.07
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.2 | 6.7 | 5.4 | 2.9 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 6.6 | 10.5 | 8.4 | 4.5 | 1.8 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 5.2 | 8.3 | 6.6 | 3.5 | 1.4 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 2.7 | 4.3 | 3.5 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.7 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Chonburi FC vs Buriram United?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.9%.
How many goals are Chonburi FC and Buriram United expected to score?
The model projects 1.57 expected goals for Chonburi FC and 1.60 for Buriram United, a combined total of 3.17.
How confident is the prediction model for Chonburi FC vs Buriram United?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 50 outings, Chonburi FC have picked up 1.28 PPG on a 18W 10D 22L record — L-W-L-W-D across the most recent five. The sample for Chonburi FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Buriram United's form line: 36W 11D 3L from 50 games, 2.38 PPG, last five W-W-W-W-W. The sample for Buriram United is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Buriram United are the form team by 1.10 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Chonburi FC.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Chonburi FC have posted 1.67 PPG from 24 outings (12W 4D 8L).
On the road, Buriram United have gone 16W 6D 2L from 24 away games — 2.25 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Buriram United come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Chonburi FC are averaging 1.42 goals scored and 1.38 conceded per game recently; Buriram United are on 2.40 scored and 0.92 conceded.
Defensively: Buriram United in 46% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 50 Results — Thai League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Chonburi FC
Blended
Buriram United
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Chonburi FC and Buriram United in coming into this match?
Chonburi FC have gone 18W 10D 22L in their last 50 games (1.28 PPG), while Buriram United have gone 36W 11D 3L in their last 50 (2.38 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Chonburi FC at home or Buriram United away?
Buriram United's away record (2.25 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Chonburi FC at home: 1.67 PPG; Buriram United away: 2.25 PPG.
Have Chonburi FC or Buriram United been keeping clean sheets recently?
Chonburi FC have kept a clean sheet in 22% of their recent games, Buriram United in 46%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 8 times that we have on record, stretching back to November 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Thai League 1. They last met on 14 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Buriram United won 5-0 on 14 Mar 2026, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Chonburi FC have gone 2W 1D 1L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Buriram United — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
2
Chonburi FC
2
Draws
4
Buriram United
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Chonburi FC and Buriram United?
From 8 meetings on record, Chonburi FC have won 2, Buriram United have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Chonburi FC and Buriram United last play each other?
They last met on 14 March 2026, when Buriram United 5-0 Chonburi FC.
Who has won more matches between Chonburi FC and Buriram United?
Buriram United have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Chonburi FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time.
Buriram United are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 46% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Chonburi FC 50%, Buriram United 58% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Chonburi FC) and 58% (Buriram United).
On the defensive side: Chonburi FC keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Buriram United in 42%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Chonburi FC home games / Buriram United away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Chonburi FC play Buriram United?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Chonburi FC's recent matches and 58% of Buriram United's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Chonburi FC vs Buriram United usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Chonburi FC's recent games and 58% of Buriram United's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Chonburi FC and Buriram United tend to score early?
Chonburi FC have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Buriram United in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Chonburi FC and Buriram United share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Chonburi FC and Buriram United finished level at 1-1 at Chonburi UTA Stadium, Regular Season - 21, in the Thai League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Chonburi FC 1.57 xG and Buriram United 1.60 xG, a combined 3.17. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Chonburi FC attack 0.98 / defence 1.05 against Buriram United attack 1.28 / defence 0.95, drawn from 50/50 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Chonburi FC 36% | Draw 27% | Buriram United 37%, with Buriram United to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 61%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 65% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Chonburi FC 52%, Buriram United 64%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Chonburi FC's trading profile (50 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
Buriram United's trading profile (50 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Buriram United arrived the stronger side — 2.38 PPG against 1.28. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Buriram United (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.00 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.