Chiangrai United 1-0 Rayong FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Chiangrai United at 61%, yet other data sources diverge — this Chiangrai United vs Rayong FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Singha Chiangrai Stadium plays host to Chiangrai United versus Rayong FC in Thai League 1, Regular Season - 26. Kick-off: Sunday 16 March 2025 at 11:00 UTC.
Form
Chiangrai United (all games): 4W 0D 6L across 10 Thai League 1 fixtures this term — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L W L L L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. This season is still relatively young for Chiangrai United, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Chiangrai United have posted 6W 1D 3L at Singha Chiangrai Stadium — 1.90 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Singha Chiangrai Stadium. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 1.90 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.20 — Chiangrai United are significantly better at Singha Chiangrai Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Rayong FC's overall Thai League 1 record this term: 2W 4D 4L from 10 games (1.00 PPG). Last five: D L L D W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 2.40. Conceding 2.40 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Rayong FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Rayong FC away from home this season: 1W 3D 6L from 10 away games — 0.60 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 2.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.20 for Chiangrai United, 1.00 for Rayong FC — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 1 head-to-head meetings have produced 0 wins for Chiangrai United, 1 for Rayong FC and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 3 Nov 2024, ended 0–2 with Rayong FC winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
Chiangrai United goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (25 games, 11 at home): they score before half-time in 54% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 27% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 27% of games (home games); they fail to score in 44% of games.
Rayong FC goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (25 games, 11 at away): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 75% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 52%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Chiangrai United 28% versus Rayong FC 72%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Chiangrai United 40% | Rayong FC 64%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Chiangrai United 1.79 xG and Rayong FC 0.78 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Chiangrai United attack 0.837 / defence 0.726 | Rayong FC attack 0.913 / defence 1.314. League average goals — home 1.626 / away 1.181. Rayong FC bring a strong defensive rating of 1.314 — this is suppressing Chiangrai United's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Chiangrai United's defence rating of 0.726 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 55 Chiangrai United games / 25 Rayong FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Chiangrai United 61% | Draw 23% | Rayong FC 16%. Fair-value odds: Chiangrai United 1.64 | Draw 4.35 | Rayong FC 6.25. The model has a clear lean to Chiangrai United (61%) — a 45pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.57. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.57 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Chiangrai United at 61% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.57 combined xG gives a 47% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 45%. Form rates corroborate: Chiangrai United 20% | Rayong FC 60% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Chiangrai United vs Rayong FC | Competition: Thai League 1, Regular Season - 26 | Venue: Singha Chiangrai Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 16 Mar 2025, 11:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Chiangrai United 61% | Draw 23% | Rayong FC 16% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% | BTTS 45% | xG Chiangrai United 1.79 / Rayong FC 0.78 • Poisson strength factors: Chiangrai United attack 0.837 / def 0.726 | Rayong FC attack 0.913 / def 1.314 | league avg home 1.626 / away 1.181 • Poisson stance: Chiangrai United (61%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.79
Chiangrai United xG
Expected Goals
0.78
Rayong FC xG
45%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Chiangrai United vs Rayong FC kick off?
Chiangrai United vs Rayong FC kicked off at 11:00 on Sunday 16 March 2025 at Singha Chiangrai Stadium.
What was the final score in Chiangrai United vs Rayong FC?
Chiangrai United 1 - 0 Rayong FC.
Where is Chiangrai United vs Rayong FC being played?
The match is being played at Singha Chiangrai Stadium.
What competition is Chiangrai United vs Rayong FC part of?
Chiangrai United vs Rayong FC is a Regular Season - 26 fixture in the Thai League 1 (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Chiangrai United vs Rayong FC?
Our statistical model gives Chiangrai United a 61% chance of winning, Rayong FC a 16% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Chiangrai United the favourite.
Will both teams score in Chiangrai United vs Rayong FC?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Chiangrai United and Rayong FC will score (BTTS).
Will Chiangrai United vs Rayong FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%.
What is the head-to-head record between Chiangrai United and Rayong FC?
Record (1 meetings): Chiangrai United 0W | Draws 0 | Rayong FC 1W.
What form are Chiangrai United and Rayong FC in?
Chiangrai United (all comps): 4W-0D-6L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-W-L-L-L. Rayong FC (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 2.40 | L5 D-L-L-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Chiangrai United's attack rating (0.84) and Rayong FC's defence rating (1.31), the model arrives at 1.79 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Rayong FC's attack (0.91x) against Chiangrai United's defence (0.73x) — and the away total comes out at 0.78.
These ratings are built from 55/25 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.3%. Close behind: 2-0 (12.2%), 1-1 (12.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Chiangrai United Win
61%
1.63
23%
4.40
16%
6.26
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.7%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
12.2%
Home win
1 – 1
10.7%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.79
Chiangrai United xG
Total xG
2.57
0.78
Rayong FC xG
1.63
61%
Home win
4.40
23%
Draw
6.26
16%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.21
55%
BTTS No
1.83
Clean Sheet
46%
2.19
17%
5.98
Win to Nil
28%
3.57
3%
37.41
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.6 | 6.0 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 13.7 | 10.7 | 4.2 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 12.2 | 9.6 | 3.7 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 7.3 | 5.7 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 3.3 | 2.5 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.2 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Chiangrai United vs Rayong FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.3%.
How many goals are Chiangrai United and Rayong FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.79 expected goals for Chiangrai United and 0.78 for Rayong FC, a combined total of 2.57.
How confident is the prediction model for Chiangrai United vs Rayong FC?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 61%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Chiangrai United's recent record stands at 8W 2D 15L from 25 games, a 1.04 PPG return, with L-W-L-L-L in the last five. The sample for Chiangrai United is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Rayong FC, meanwhile, have gone 6W 8D 11L across 25 games — 1.04 PPG, with D-L-L-D-W in their last five. The sample for Rayong FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.04 PPG for Chiangrai United against 1.04 for Rayong FC. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Chiangrai United have managed 6W 2D 3L from 11 games — 1.82 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.04 PPG overall — Chiangrai United are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Rayong FC's away record stands at 2W 3D 6L across 11 trips, a 0.82 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Chiangrai United come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Chiangrai United are averaging 0.88 goals scored and 1.72 conceded per game recently; Rayong FC are on 1.32 scored and 2.04 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Chiangrai United have seen both teams score in 28% of their recent games; Rayong FC in 72%.
Last 25 Results — Thai League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Chiangrai United
Blended
Rayong FC
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Chiangrai United and Rayong FC in coming into this match?
Chiangrai United have gone 8W 2D 15L in their last 25 games (1.04 PPG), while Rayong FC have gone 6W 8D 11L in their last 25 (1.04 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Chiangrai United at home or Rayong FC away?
Chiangrai United's home record (1.82 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Chiangrai United at home: 1.82 PPG; Rayong FC away: 0.82 PPG.
Have Chiangrai United or Rayong FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Chiangrai United have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, Rayong FC in 12%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to November 2024 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Thai League 1. They last met on 15 February 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Chiangrai United have gone 1W 0D 1L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Rayong FC — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Chiangrai United
1
Draws
2
Rayong FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Chiangrai United and Rayong FC?
From 4 meetings on record, Chiangrai United have won 1, Rayong FC have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Chiangrai United and Rayong FC last play each other?
They last met on 15 February 2026, when Rayong FC 1-1 Chiangrai United.
Who has won more matches between Chiangrai United and Rayong FC?
Rayong FC have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Chiangrai United see a goal before the break in 54% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 46% of the time.
Rayong FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Chiangrai United 27%, Rayong FC 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 27% (Chiangrai United) and 64% (Rayong FC).
On the defensive side: Chiangrai United keep a clean sheet in 54% of their matches; Chiangrai United have failed to score in 27% of games; Rayong FC in 27%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Chiangrai United home games / Rayong FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Chiangrai United play Rayong FC?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 27% of Chiangrai United's recent matches and 54% of Rayong FC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Chiangrai United vs Rayong FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 27% of Chiangrai United's recent games and 64% of Rayong FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Chiangrai United and Rayong FC tend to score early?
Chiangrai United have had a goal before half-time in 54% of their recent matches, Rayong FC in 82% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Chiangrai United edge out Rayong FC 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Chiangrai United beat Rayong FC 1-0 at Singha Chiangrai Stadium, Regular Season - 26, in the Thai League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Chiangrai United 1.79 xG and Rayong FC 0.78 xG, a combined 2.57. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Chiangrai United attack 0.84 / defence 0.73 against Rayong FC attack 0.91 / defence 1.31, drawn from 55/25 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Chiangrai United 61% | Draw 23% | Rayong FC 16%, with Chiangrai United to win its most likely call at 61%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 73% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Chiangrai United 40%, Rayong FC 64%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Chiangrai United's trading profile (25 games, 11 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 28% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and duly kept one.
Rayong FC's trading profile (25 games, 11 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 72% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Chiangrai United 1.04 PPG, Rayong FC 1.04 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Chiangrai United win broke the near-deadlock. Rayong FC (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 2.27 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.