Chiangrai United 3-0 Nakhon Pathom – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Chiangrai United at 42%, yet other data sources diverge — this Chiangrai United vs Nakhon Pathom fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Thai League 1 clash, Regular Season - 20 as Chiangrai United welcome Nakhon Pathom to Singha Chiangrai Stadium. Kick-off is set for Sunday 2 February 2025 at 11:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Chiangrai United — All Games: 4W 1D 5L from 10 Thai League 1 outings this season, averaging 1.30 points per game. Last five: W W L W L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. This season is still relatively young for Chiangrai United, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Chiangrai United have posted 5W 2D 3L at Singha Chiangrai Stadium — 1.70 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Singha Chiangrai Stadium. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Nakhon Pathom stand at 2W 3D 5L from 10 Thai League 1 matches — 0.90 PPG. Last five: W W D D L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Nakhon Pathom, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Nakhon Pathom have gone 1W 3D 6L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.30 PPG (Chiangrai United) versus 0.90 (Nakhon Pathom). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 3 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Chiangrai United, 1 for Nakhon Pathom and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 7 Dec 2024, ended 1–2 with Nakhon Pathom winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Chiangrai United trading profile (49 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 54% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (home games); they fail to score in 39% of games.
Nakhon Pathom trading profile (49 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Chiangrai United 43% versus Nakhon Pathom 67%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Chiangrai United 43% | Nakhon Pathom 63%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Chiangrai United 1.32 xG and Nakhon Pathom 1.01 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Chiangrai United attack 0.812 / defence 0.829 | Nakhon Pathom attack 1.018 / defence 0.922. League average goals — home 1.768 / away 1.199. Data: 49 Chiangrai United games / 49 Nakhon Pathom games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Chiangrai United 42% | Draw 31% | Nakhon Pathom 27%. Fair-value odds: Chiangrai United 2.38 | Draw 3.23 | Nakhon Pathom 3.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.34. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.34 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Chiangrai United as the most likely outcome at 42% — marginal model lean. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Chiangrai United offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.34 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 41% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 48%. Form rates corroborate: Chiangrai United 30% | Nakhon Pathom 60% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Chiangrai United vs Nakhon Pathom | Competition: Thai League 1, Regular Season - 20 | Venue: Singha Chiangrai Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 2 Feb 2025, 11:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Chiangrai United 42% | Draw 31% | Nakhon Pathom 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 41% | BTTS 48% | xG Chiangrai United 1.32 / Nakhon Pathom 1.01 • Poisson strength factors: Chiangrai United attack 0.812 / def 0.829 | Nakhon Pathom attack 1.018 / def 0.922 | league avg home 1.768 / away 1.199 • Poisson stance: Chiangrai United (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.32
Chiangrai United xG
Expected Goals
1.01
Nakhon Pathom xG
48%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
41%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Chiangrai United vs Nakhon Pathom kick off?
Chiangrai United vs Nakhon Pathom kicked off at 11:00 on Sunday 2 February 2025 at Singha Chiangrai Stadium.
What was the final score in Chiangrai United vs Nakhon Pathom?
Chiangrai United 3 - 0 Nakhon Pathom.
Where is Chiangrai United vs Nakhon Pathom being played?
The match is being played at Singha Chiangrai Stadium.
What competition is Chiangrai United vs Nakhon Pathom part of?
Chiangrai United vs Nakhon Pathom is a Regular Season - 20 fixture in the Thai League 1 (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Chiangrai United vs Nakhon Pathom?
Our statistical model gives Chiangrai United a 42% chance of winning, Nakhon Pathom a 27% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Chiangrai United the favourite.
Will both teams score in Chiangrai United vs Nakhon Pathom?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Chiangrai United and Nakhon Pathom will score (BTTS).
Will Chiangrai United vs Nakhon Pathom have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 41%.
What is the head-to-head record between Chiangrai United and Nakhon Pathom?
Record (3 meetings): Chiangrai United 1W | Draws 1 | Nakhon Pathom 1W.
What form are Chiangrai United and Nakhon Pathom in?
Chiangrai United (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.70 | L5 W-W-L-W-L. Nakhon Pathom (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.90 | L5 W-W-D-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Chiangrai United's attack rating (0.81) and Nakhon Pathom's defence rating (0.92), the model arrives at 1.32 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Nakhon Pathom's attack versus Chiangrai United's defence, projects 1.01 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 49/49 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.6%. Close behind: 0-0 (11.4%), 1-0 (11.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Chiangrai United Win
42%
2.37
31%
3.24
27%
3.71
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.8%
Home win
0 – 1
9.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.32
Chiangrai United xG
Total xG
2.34
1.01
Nakhon Pathom xG
2.37
42%
Home win
3.24
31%
Draw
3.71
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
41%
Over 2.5
2.44
59%
Under 2.5
1.69
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.07
52%
BTTS No
1.94
Clean Sheet
36%
2.75
27%
3.76
Win to Nil
15%
6.53
7%
13.96
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.7 | 9.8 | 5.0 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.8 | 13.0 | 6.6 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.5 | 8.6 | 4.3 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.7 | 3.8 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Chiangrai United vs Nakhon Pathom?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are Chiangrai United and Nakhon Pathom expected to score?
The model projects 1.32 expected goals for Chiangrai United and 1.01 for Nakhon Pathom, a combined total of 2.34.
How confident is the prediction model for Chiangrai United vs Nakhon Pathom?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 49 outings, Chiangrai United have picked up 1.10 PPG on a 14W 12D 23L record — W-W-L-W-L across the most recent five. The sample for Chiangrai United is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Nakhon Pathom's form line: 11W 14D 24L from 49 games, 0.96 PPG, last five W-W-D-D-L. The sample for Nakhon Pathom is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Chiangrai United on 1.10 PPG, Nakhon Pathom on 0.96. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Chiangrai United have posted 1.48 PPG from 25 outings (10W 7D 8L).
On the road, Nakhon Pathom have gone 4W 8D 13L from 25 away games — 0.80 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Chiangrai United come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Chiangrai United are averaging 0.94 goals scored and 1.45 conceded per game recently; Nakhon Pathom are on 1.14 scored and 1.80 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Nakhon Pathom in 67%.
Last 49 Results — Thai League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Chiangrai United
Blended
Nakhon Pathom
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Chiangrai United and Nakhon Pathom in coming into this match?
Chiangrai United have gone 14W 12D 23L in their last 49 games (1.10 PPG), while Nakhon Pathom have gone 11W 14D 24L in their last 49 (0.96 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Chiangrai United at home or Nakhon Pathom away?
Chiangrai United's home record (1.48 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Chiangrai United at home: 1.48 PPG; Nakhon Pathom away: 0.80 PPG.
Have Chiangrai United or Nakhon Pathom been keeping clean sheets recently?
Chiangrai United have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Nakhon Pathom in 14%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to December 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Thai League 1. It has been a while since the last meeting — 2 February 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 2 Feb 2025, when Chiangrai United won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Chiangrai United's record when hosting Nakhon Pathom specifically: 1W 1D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Chiangrai United
1
Draws
1
Nakhon Pathom
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Chiangrai United and Nakhon Pathom?
From 4 meetings on record, Chiangrai United have won 2, Nakhon Pathom have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Chiangrai United and Nakhon Pathom last play each other?
They last met on 2 February 2025, when Chiangrai United 3-0 Nakhon Pathom.
Who has won more matches between Chiangrai United and Nakhon Pathom?
Chiangrai United have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Chiangrai United are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time.
Nakhon Pathom are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Chiangrai United 44%, Nakhon Pathom 68% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 36% (Chiangrai United) and 64% (Nakhon Pathom).
On the defensive side: Chiangrai United keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches; Chiangrai United have failed to score in 28% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Chiangrai United home games / Nakhon Pathom away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Chiangrai United play Nakhon Pathom?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 44% of Chiangrai United's games and 68% of Nakhon Pathom's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Chiangrai United vs Nakhon Pathom usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 36% of Chiangrai United's recent games and 64% of Nakhon Pathom's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Chiangrai United and Nakhon Pathom tend to score early?
Chiangrai United have had a goal before half-time in 76% of their recent matches, Nakhon Pathom in 68% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Chiangrai United run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Nakhon Pathom.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Chiangrai United beat Nakhon Pathom 3-0 at Singha Chiangrai Stadium, Regular Season - 20, in the Thai League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Chiangrai United 1.32 xG and Nakhon Pathom 1.01 xG, a combined 2.34. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Chiangrai United beat their projection by 1.7 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Nakhon Pathom landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Chiangrai United attack 0.81 / defence 0.83 against Nakhon Pathom attack 1.02 / defence 0.92, drawn from 49/49 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Chiangrai United 42% | Draw 31% | Nakhon Pathom 27%, with Chiangrai United to win its most likely call at 42%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Chiangrai United 43%, Nakhon Pathom 63%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Chiangrai United's trading profile (49 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and duly kept one.
Nakhon Pathom's trading profile (49 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Chiangrai United 1.10 PPG, Nakhon Pathom 0.96 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Chiangrai United win broke the near-deadlock. Chiangrai United (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.20 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.08 average — tighter than their form line. Nakhon Pathom (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.12 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 2.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.