Bangkok United 6-0 Chonburi FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Bangkok United at 54% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Bangkok United vs Chonburi FC encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Thammasat Stadium plays host to Bangkok United versus Chonburi FC in Thai League 1, Regular Season - 22. Kick-off: Sunday 31 March 2024 at 12:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Bangkok United have collected 1.60 PPG across 10 Thai League 1 outings this season: 4W 4D 2L. Last five: W D D L W. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Bangkok United, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Bangkok United's home record at Thammasat Stadium: 6W 3D 1L from 10 Thai League 1 appearances (2.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 0.50 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Thammasat Stadium. Their home PPG of 2.10 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.60 — Bangkok United are significantly better at Thammasat Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Chonburi FC's overall Thai League 1 record this term: 3W 3D 4L from 10 games (1.20 PPG). Last five: W L W D D. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Chonburi FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Chonburi FC's away record: 1W 3D 6L from 10 road trips in Thai League 1 this season (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.60 is notably below their overall 1.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.60 for Bangkok United, 1.20 for Chonburi FC — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record favours Bangkok United, who have won 3 of the last 5 meetings against Chonburi FC — a 2D 0W return for the visitors.
Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 5 previous contests averaged 1.6 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 28 Dec 2023, ended 0–0 with a draw.
The historical record gives Bangkok United a meaningful edge here — 3 wins from 5 meetings is the kind of ledger that should not be discounted when the form picture is inconclusive. Even away from home, the visitors have struggled to impose themselves in this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Bangkok United — key trading statistics (50 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 48% of the time.
Chonburi FC — key trading statistics (50 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Bangkok United 44% versus Chonburi FC 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Bangkok United 44% | Chonburi FC 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Bangkok United 1.70 xG and Chonburi FC 0.93 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bangkok United attack 0.967 / defence 0.859 | Chonburi FC attack 0.921 / defence 1.022. League average goals — home 1.721 / away 1.174. Data: 50 Bangkok United games / 51 Chonburi FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Bangkok United 54% | Draw 28% | Chonburi FC 19%. Fair-value odds: Bangkok United 1.85 | Draw 3.57 | Chonburi FC 5.26. Bangkok United hold a narrow Poisson edge at 54% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.63. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.63 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Bangkok United are the pick at 54% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Bangkok United if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.63 combined xG gives a 49% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by H2H averaging 1.6 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 51%. Form rates corroborate: Bangkok United 40% | Chonburi FC 80% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Bangkok United vs Chonburi FC | Competition: Thai League 1, Regular Season - 22 | Venue: Thammasat Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 31 Mar 2024, 12:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Bangkok United 54% | Draw 28% | Chonburi FC 19% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% | BTTS 51% | xG Bangkok United 1.70 / Chonburi FC 0.93 • Poisson strength factors: Bangkok United attack 0.967 / def 0.859 | Chonburi FC attack 0.921 / def 1.022 | league avg home 1.721 / away 1.174 • Poisson stance: Bangkok United (54%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.70
Bangkok United xG
Expected Goals
0.93
Chonburi FC xG
51%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Bangkok United vs Chonburi FC kick off?
Bangkok United vs Chonburi FC kicked off at 12:30 on Sunday 31 March 2024 at Thammasat Stadium.
What was the final score in Bangkok United vs Chonburi FC?
Bangkok United 6 - 0 Chonburi FC.
Where is Bangkok United vs Chonburi FC being played?
The match is being played at Thammasat Stadium.
What competition is Bangkok United vs Chonburi FC part of?
Bangkok United vs Chonburi FC is a Regular Season - 22 fixture in the Thai League 1 (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Bangkok United vs Chonburi FC?
Our statistical model gives Bangkok United a 54% chance of winning, Chonburi FC a 19% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Bangkok United the favourite.
Will both teams score in Bangkok United vs Chonburi FC?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Bangkok United and Chonburi FC will score (BTTS).
Will Bangkok United vs Chonburi FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between Bangkok United and Chonburi FC?
Record (5 meetings): Bangkok United 3W | Draws 2 | Chonburi FC 0W.
What form are Bangkok United and Chonburi FC in?
Bangkok United (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-D-D-L-W. Chonburi FC (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-L-W-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Bangkok United's attack at 0.97x the league average against Chonburi FC's defence at 1.02x — combine the two and it projects 1.70 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Chonburi FC's attack (0.92x) against Bangkok United's defence (0.86x) — and the away total comes out at 0.93.
These ratings are built from 50/51 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (10.8%), 2-0 (10.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Bangkok United Win
54%
1.87
28%
3.59
19%
5.39
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.3%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.4%
Draw
2 – 0
10.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.70
Bangkok United xG
Total xG
2.63
0.93
Chonburi FC xG
1.87
54%
Home win
3.59
28%
Draw
5.39
19%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.95
49%
BTTS No
2.06
Clean Sheet
39%
2.53
18%
5.47
Win to Nil
21%
4.72
3%
29.53
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.2 | 6.7 | 3.1 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 12.3 | 11.4 | 5.3 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.4 | 9.7 | 4.5 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.9 | 5.5 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.5 | 2.3 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.9 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Bangkok United vs Chonburi FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.9%.
How many goals are Bangkok United and Chonburi FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.70 expected goals for Bangkok United and 0.93 for Chonburi FC, a combined total of 2.63.
How confident is the prediction model for Bangkok United vs Chonburi FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 54%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 50 outings, Bangkok United have picked up 2.08 PPG on a 31W 11D 8L record — W-D-D-L-W across the most recent five. The sample for Bangkok United is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Chonburi FC's form line: 17W 11D 22L from 50 games, 1.24 PPG, last five W-L-W-D-D. The sample for Chonburi FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Bangkok United are the form team by 0.84 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Chonburi FC.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Bangkok United have posted 2.29 PPG from 24 outings (17W 4D 3L).
On the road, Chonburi FC have gone 4W 6D 14L from 24 away games — 0.75 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.24 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Chonburi FC's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Bangkok United come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Bangkok United are averaging 1.78 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game recently; Chonburi FC are on 1.40 scored and 1.40 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Chonburi FC in 60%.
Defensively: Bangkok United have kept a clean sheet in 48% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 50 Results — Thai League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Bangkok United
Blended
Chonburi FC
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Bangkok United and Chonburi FC in coming into this match?
Bangkok United have gone 31W 11D 8L in their last 50 games (2.08 PPG), while Chonburi FC have gone 17W 11D 22L in their last 50 (1.24 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Bangkok United at home or Chonburi FC away?
Bangkok United's home record (2.29 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Bangkok United at home: 2.29 PPG; Chonburi FC away: 0.75 PPG.
Have Bangkok United or Chonburi FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Bangkok United have kept a clean sheet in 48% of their recent games, Chonburi FC in 20%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 8 times since October 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Thai League 1. They last met on 24 January 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Bangkok United go into this on the back of 3 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Bangkok United won 6-0 on 31 Mar 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Bangkok United have gone 4W 0D 0L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Chonburi FC — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
6
Bangkok United
2
Draws
0
Chonburi FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Bangkok United and Chonburi FC?
From 8 meetings on record, Bangkok United have won 6, Chonburi FC have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Bangkok United and Chonburi FC last play each other?
They last met on 24 January 2026, when Bangkok United 1-0 Chonburi FC.
Who has won more matches between Bangkok United and Chonburi FC?
Bangkok United have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Bangkok United are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 21% of those situations.
Chonburi FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Bangkok United 46%, Chonburi FC 71% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Bangkok United) and 58% (Chonburi FC).
On the defensive side: Bangkok United keep a clean sheet in 46% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Bangkok United home games / Chonburi FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Bangkok United play Chonburi FC?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 46% of Bangkok United's games and 71% of Chonburi FC's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Bangkok United vs Chonburi FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Bangkok United's recent games and 58% of Chonburi FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Bangkok United and Chonburi FC tend to score early?
Bangkok United have had a goal before half-time in 62% of their recent matches, Chonburi FC in 79% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Bangkok United run riot with a 6-0 hammering of Chonburi FC.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Bangkok United beat Chonburi FC 6-0 at Thammasat Stadium, Regular Season - 22, in the Thai League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Bangkok United 1.70 xG and Chonburi FC 0.93 xG, a combined 2.63. The scoreboard read 6-0 for 6 actual goals. Bangkok United beat their projection by 4.3 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Chonburi FC landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bangkok United attack 0.97 / defence 0.86 against Chonburi FC attack 0.92 / defence 1.02, drawn from 50/51 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Bangkok United 54% | Draw 28% | Chonburi FC 19%, with Bangkok United to win its most likely call at 54%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. Over 3.5 was 27% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bangkok United 44%, Chonburi FC 52%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Bangkok United's trading profile (50 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 48% of the time, and duly kept one.
Chonburi FC's trading profile (50 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Bangkok United arrived the stronger side — 2.08 PPG against 1.24. Form held, and they took the win. Bangkok United (home/away splits) scored 6 against a 2.12 average — above their attacking norm. Chonburi FC (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.29 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 6 against a 1.67 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.