Yverdon Sport 0-2 FC Basel 1893 – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Yverdon Sport at 44%, yet other data sources diverge — this Yverdon Sport vs FC Basel 1893 fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
FC Basel 1893 make the trip to Stade Municipal to face Yverdon Sport in Super League, Regular Season - 25. The match kicks off on Saturday 24 February 2024 at 17:00 UTC.
Form
Yverdon Sport (all games): 4W 1D 5L across 10 Super League fixtures this term — 1.30 PPG. Last five: L L W W L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 2.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.20 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Yverdon Sport, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Yverdon Sport have posted 6W 2D 2L at Stade Municipal — 2.00 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.30 — Yverdon Sport are significantly better at Stade Municipal than their overall form suggests.
FC Basel 1893's overall Super League record this term: 5W 2D 3L from 10 games (1.70 PPG). Last five: W W L W L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 0.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for FC Basel 1893, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Super League this season, FC Basel 1893 have posted 3W 2D 5L from 10 away outings — 1.10 PPG. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.10 is notably below their overall 1.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.30 PPG for Yverdon Sport against 1.70 for FC Basel 1893. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Yverdon Sport have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, FC Basel 1893 in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 2 meetings: Yverdon Sport 1W, FC Basel 1893 1W, 0D.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 4.0 per game across 2 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 5 Nov 2023, ended 1–2 with FC Basel 1893 winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Yverdon Sport goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (24 games, 12 at home): they score before half-time in 92% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 83% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
FC Basel 1893 goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (24 games, 12 at away): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Yverdon Sport 71% and FC Basel 1893 54% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Yverdon Sport 71% | FC Basel 1893 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Yverdon Sport 1.67 xG and FC Basel 1893 1.39 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Yverdon Sport attack 1.093 / defence 1.128 | FC Basel 1893 attack 0.998 / defence 1.007. League average goals — home 1.519 / away 1.231. Data: 24 Yverdon Sport games / 60 FC Basel 1893 games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Yverdon Sport 44% | Draw 24% | FC Basel 1893 32%. Fair-value odds: Yverdon Sport 2.27 | Draw 4.17 | FC Basel 1893 3.12. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 24% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 59% | BTTS probability 61% | Total xG 3.06. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 59% — the 3.06 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 61% reflects that both xG figures (1.67 / 1.39) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Yverdon Sport as the most likely outcome at 44% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 24% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Yverdon Sport if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.06 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 59% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 61% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Yverdon Sport 60% | FC Basel 1893 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Yverdon Sport vs FC Basel 1893 | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 25 | Venue: Stade Municipal • Kick-off: Saturday 24 Feb 2024, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Yverdon Sport 44% | Draw 24% | FC Basel 1893 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 59% | BTTS 61% | xG Yverdon Sport 1.67 / FC Basel 1893 1.39 • Poisson strength factors: Yverdon Sport attack 1.093 / def 1.128 | FC Basel 1893 attack 0.998 / def 1.007 | league avg home 1.519 / away 1.231 • Poisson stance: Yverdon Sport (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.67
Yverdon Sport xG
Expected Goals
1.39
FC Basel 1893 xG
61%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
59%
Over 2.5
37%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Yverdon Sport vs FC Basel 1893 kick off?
Yverdon Sport vs FC Basel 1893 kicked off at 17:00 on Saturday 24 February 2024 at Stade Municipal.
What was the final score in Yverdon Sport vs FC Basel 1893?
Yverdon Sport 0 - 2 FC Basel 1893.
Where is Yverdon Sport vs FC Basel 1893 being played?
The match is being played at Stade Municipal.
What competition is Yverdon Sport vs FC Basel 1893 part of?
Yverdon Sport vs FC Basel 1893 is a Regular Season - 25 fixture in the Super League (Switzerland).
Who is favourite to win Yverdon Sport vs FC Basel 1893?
Our statistical model gives Yverdon Sport a 44% chance of winning, FC Basel 1893 a 32% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Yverdon Sport the favourite.
Will both teams score in Yverdon Sport vs FC Basel 1893?
Our model estimates a 61% probability that both Yverdon Sport and FC Basel 1893 will score (BTTS).
Will Yverdon Sport vs FC Basel 1893 have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 59%.
What is the head-to-head record between Yverdon Sport and FC Basel 1893?
Record (2 meetings): Yverdon Sport 1W | Draws 0 | FC Basel 1893 1W.
What form are Yverdon Sport and FC Basel 1893 in?
Yverdon Sport (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 2.20 | L5 L-L-W-W-L. FC Basel 1893 (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-W-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Yverdon Sport's attack rating (1.09) and FC Basel 1893's defence rating (1.01), the model arrives at 1.67 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — FC Basel 1893's attack (1.00x) against Yverdon Sport's defence (1.13x) — and the away total comes out at 1.39.
These ratings are built from 24/60 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.3%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.1%), 1-2 (7.5%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Yverdon Sport Win
44%
2.25
24%
4.21
32%
3.14
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.9%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.1%
Home win
1 – 0
7.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.67
Yverdon Sport xG
Total xG
3.06
1.39
FC Basel 1893 xG
2.25
44%
Home win
4.21
24%
Draw
3.14
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
59%
Over 2.5
1.69
41%
Under 2.5
2.44
37%
Over 3.5
2.70
63%
Under 3.5
1.59
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
61%
BTTS Yes
1.64
39%
BTTS No
2.56
Clean Sheet
25%
3.99
19%
5.33
Win to Nil
11%
9.00
6%
16.73
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.7 | 6.5 | 4.5 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 7.9 | 10.9 | 7.5 | 3.5 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.6 | 9.1 | 6.3 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.7 | 5.1 | 3.5 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.5 | 2.1 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Yverdon Sport vs FC Basel 1893?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.3%.
How many goals are Yverdon Sport and FC Basel 1893 expected to score?
The model projects 1.67 expected goals for Yverdon Sport and 1.39 for FC Basel 1893, a combined total of 3.06.
How confident is the prediction model for Yverdon Sport vs FC Basel 1893?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Yverdon Sport come into this having played 24 games, going 8W 6D 10L for 1.25 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-W-W-L. The sample for Yverdon Sport is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, FC Basel 1893 sit at 1.17 PPG from 24 outings (8W 4D 12L), a run that reads W-W-L-W-L across their last five. The sample for FC Basel 1893 is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.25 PPG for Yverdon Sport against 1.17 for FC Basel 1893. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Yverdon Sport's home form reads 7W 3D 2L across 12 games on their own ground, a 2.00 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.25 PPG overall — Yverdon Sport are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, FC Basel 1893 have taken 0.92 points per game from 12 outings (3W 2D 7L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Yverdon Sport come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Yverdon Sport are averaging 1.33 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game recently; FC Basel 1893 are on 1.21 scored and 1.54 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Yverdon Sport have seen both teams score in 71% of their recent games.
Last 24 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Yverdon Sport
Blended
FC Basel 1893
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Yverdon Sport and FC Basel 1893 in coming into this match?
Yverdon Sport have gone 8W 6D 10L in their last 24 games (1.25 PPG), while FC Basel 1893 have gone 8W 4D 12L in their last 24 (1.17 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Yverdon Sport at home or FC Basel 1893 away?
Yverdon Sport's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Yverdon Sport at home: 2.00 PPG; FC Basel 1893 away: 0.92 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 7 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2023 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 21 April 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: FC Basel 1893 have taken the last 3 head-to-head results.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: FC Basel 1893 won 5-0 on 21 Apr 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Yverdon Sport have gone 1W 0D 2L from 3 meetings on their own ground against FC Basel 1893 — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 7 Meetings
1
Yverdon Sport
1
Draws
5
FC Basel 1893
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Yverdon Sport and FC Basel 1893?
From 7 meetings on record, Yverdon Sport have won 1, FC Basel 1893 have won 5, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Yverdon Sport and FC Basel 1893 last play each other?
They last met on 21 April 2025, when FC Basel 1893 5-0 Yverdon Sport.
Who has won more matches between Yverdon Sport and FC Basel 1893?
FC Basel 1893 have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 7 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Yverdon Sport are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 92% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
FC Basel 1893 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 67% for Yverdon Sport, 67% for FC Basel 1893 — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 83% for Yverdon Sport and 75% for FC Basel 1893. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 42% and 42% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Yverdon Sport home games / FC Basel 1893 away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Yverdon Sport play FC Basel 1893?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of Yverdon Sport's games and 67% of FC Basel 1893's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Yverdon Sport vs FC Basel 1893 usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 83% of Yverdon Sport's matches and 75% of FC Basel 1893's.
Do Yverdon Sport and FC Basel 1893 tend to score early?
Yverdon Sport have had a goal before half-time in 92% of their recent matches, FC Basel 1893 in 83% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
FC Basel 1893 cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Yverdon Sport.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
FC Basel 1893 beat Yverdon Sport 0-2 at Stade Municipal, Regular Season - 25, in the Super League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Yverdon Sport 1.67 xG and FC Basel 1893 1.39 xG, a combined 3.06. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Yverdon Sport fell 1.7 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Yverdon Sport attack 1.09 / defence 1.13 against FC Basel 1893 attack 1.00 / defence 1.01, drawn from 24/60 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Yverdon Sport 44% | Draw 24% | FC Basel 1893 32%, with Yverdon Sport to win its most likely call at 44%. The actual FC Basel 1893 win had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 65% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Yverdon Sport 71%, FC Basel 1893 58%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Yverdon Sport's trading profile (24 games, 12 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 71% of their matches — today it did not.
FC Basel 1893's trading profile (24 games, 12 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Yverdon Sport 1.25 PPG, FC Basel 1893 1.17 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the FC Basel 1893 win broke the near-deadlock. Yverdon Sport (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.83 scoring average — below par going forward. FC Basel 1893 (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.17 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.92 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.