FC ST. Gallen 1-0 Stade Lausanne-Ouchy – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates FC ST. Gallen at 55%, yet other data sources diverge — this FC ST. Gallen vs Stade Lausanne-Ouchy fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
kybunpark plays host to FC ST. Gallen versus Stade Lausanne-Ouchy in Super League, Regular Season - 25. Kick-off: Saturday 24 February 2024 at 17:00 UTC.
Form
FC ST. Gallen (all games): 3W 1D 6L across 10 Super League fixtures this term — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L L L L D. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. This season is still relatively young for FC ST. Gallen, so this record blends games from this season and last.
FC ST. Gallen at kybunpark this season: 7W 1D 2L from 10 home games — 2.20 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.30 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.20 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.00 — FC ST. Gallen are significantly better at kybunpark than their overall form suggests.
Stade Lausanne-Ouchy's overall Super League record this term: 1W 2D 7L from 10 games (0.50 PPG). Last five: L L L D L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Stade Lausanne-Ouchy, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Stade Lausanne-Ouchy's away record: 2W 1D 7L from 10 road trips in Super League this season (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game.
The points-per-game gap of 0.50 in FC ST. Gallen's favour (1.00 vs 0.50) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 2 head-to-head meetings have produced 2 wins for FC ST. Gallen, 0 for Stade Lausanne-Ouchy and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 5.5 per game across 2 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 5 Nov 2023, ended 5–2 with FC ST. Gallen winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 5.5 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading
FC ST. Gallen half-time and goal-timing data (26 games, 13 at home): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 85% of games (home games).
Stade Lausanne-Ouchy half-time and goal-timing data (26 games, 13 at away): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — FC ST. Gallen 54% versus Stade Lausanne-Ouchy 65%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (FC ST. Gallen 58% | Stade Lausanne-Ouchy 65%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FC ST. Gallen 2.00 xG and Stade Lausanne-Ouchy 1.23 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC ST. Gallen attack 1.138 / defence 1.137 | Stade Lausanne-Ouchy attack 0.880 / defence 1.159. League average goals — home 1.519 / away 1.231. Data: 60 FC ST. Gallen games / 24 Stade Lausanne-Ouchy games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: FC ST. Gallen 55% | Draw 22% | Stade Lausanne-Ouchy 23%. Fair-value odds: FC ST. Gallen 1.82 | Draw 4.55 | Stade Lausanne-Ouchy 4.35. The model has a clear lean to FC ST. Gallen (55%) — a 32pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 63% | BTTS probability 61% | Total xG 3.24. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 63% — the 3.24 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 61% reflects that both xG figures (2.00 / 1.23) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is FC ST. Gallen at 55% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.24 combined xG gives a 63% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.4 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 61%. Form rates corroborate: FC ST. Gallen 60% | Stade Lausanne-Ouchy 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FC ST. Gallen vs Stade Lausanne-Ouchy | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 25 | Venue: kybunpark • Kick-off: Saturday 24 Feb 2024, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FC ST. Gallen 55% | Draw 22% | Stade Lausanne-Ouchy 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 63% | BTTS 61% | xG FC ST. Gallen 2.00 / Stade Lausanne-Ouchy 1.23 • Poisson strength factors: FC ST. Gallen attack 1.138 / def 1.137 | Stade Lausanne-Ouchy attack 0.880 / def 1.159 | league avg home 1.519 / away 1.231 • Poisson stance: FC ST. Gallen (55%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.00
FC ST. Gallen xG
Expected Goals
1.23
Stade Lausanne-Ouchy xG
61%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
63%
Over 2.5
41%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does FC ST. Gallen vs Stade Lausanne-Ouchy kick off?
FC ST. Gallen vs Stade Lausanne-Ouchy kicked off at 17:00 on Saturday 24 February 2024 at kybunpark.
What was the final score in FC ST. Gallen vs Stade Lausanne-Ouchy?
FC ST. Gallen 1 - 0 Stade Lausanne-Ouchy.
Where is FC ST. Gallen vs Stade Lausanne-Ouchy being played?
The match is being played at kybunpark.
What competition is FC ST. Gallen vs Stade Lausanne-Ouchy part of?
FC ST. Gallen vs Stade Lausanne-Ouchy is a Regular Season - 25 fixture in the Super League (Switzerland).
Who is favourite to win FC ST. Gallen vs Stade Lausanne-Ouchy?
Our statistical model gives FC ST. Gallen a 55% chance of winning, Stade Lausanne-Ouchy a 23% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making FC ST. Gallen the favourite.
Will both teams score in FC ST. Gallen vs Stade Lausanne-Ouchy?
Our model estimates a 61% probability that both FC ST. Gallen and Stade Lausanne-Ouchy will score (BTTS).
Will FC ST. Gallen vs Stade Lausanne-Ouchy have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 63%.
What is the head-to-head record between FC ST. Gallen and Stade Lausanne-Ouchy?
Record (2 meetings): FC ST. Gallen 2W | Draws 0 | Stade Lausanne-Ouchy 0W.
What form are FC ST. Gallen and Stade Lausanne-Ouchy in?
FC ST. Gallen (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-L-L-L-D. Stade Lausanne-Ouchy (all comps): 1W-2D-7L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-L-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
FC ST. Gallen's attacking strength (1.14x league average) is weighed against Stade Lausanne-Ouchy's defensive record (1.16x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.00. Flip it around — Stade Lausanne-Ouchy's attack (0.88x) against FC ST. Gallen's defence (1.14x) — and the away total comes out at 1.23.
These ratings are built from 60/24 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.0%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.7%), 2-0 (7.9%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
FC ST. Gallen Win
55%
1.81
22%
4.64
23%
4.32
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.7%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.7%
Home win
1 – 0
7.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.00
FC ST. Gallen xG
Total xG
3.24
1.23
Stade Lausanne-Ouchy xG
1.81
55%
Home win
4.64
22%
Draw
4.32
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
63%
Over 2.5
1.59
37%
Under 2.5
2.70
41%
Over 3.5
2.44
59%
Under 3.5
1.69
23%
Over 4.5
4.35
77%
Under 4.5
1.30
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
61%
BTTS Yes
1.63
39%
BTTS No
2.58
Clean Sheet
29%
3.42
13%
7.42
Win to Nil
16%
6.20
3%
32.03
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.9 | 4.8 | 3.0 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 7.9 | 9.7 | 6.0 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.9 | 9.7 | 6.0 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 5.3 | 6.5 | 4.0 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.6 | 3.3 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.1 | 1.3 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for FC ST. Gallen vs Stade Lausanne-Ouchy?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.0%.
How many goals are FC ST. Gallen and Stade Lausanne-Ouchy expected to score?
The model projects 2.00 expected goals for FC ST. Gallen and 1.23 for Stade Lausanne-Ouchy, a combined total of 3.24.
How confident is the prediction model for FC ST. Gallen vs Stade Lausanne-Ouchy?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 55%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
FC ST. Gallen come into this having played 26 games, going 12W 5D 9L for 1.58 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-L-L-D. The sample for FC ST. Gallen is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Stade Lausanne-Ouchy sit at 0.81 PPG from 26 outings (5W 6D 15L), a run that reads L-L-L-D-L across their last five. The sample for Stade Lausanne-Ouchy is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
FC ST. Gallen carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.77 PPG clear of Stade Lausanne-Ouchy — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
FC ST. Gallen's home form reads 10W 1D 2L across 13 games on their own ground, a 2.38 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.58 PPG overall — FC ST. Gallen are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Stade Lausanne-Ouchy have taken 0.77 points per game from 13 outings (3W 1D 9L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, FC ST. Gallen come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
FC ST. Gallen are averaging 1.65 goals scored and 1.27 conceded per game recently; Stade Lausanne-Ouchy are on 1.19 scored and 2.04 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Stade Lausanne-Ouchy in 65%.
Last 26 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FC ST. Gallen
Blended
Stade Lausanne-Ouchy
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are FC ST. Gallen and Stade Lausanne-Ouchy in coming into this match?
FC ST. Gallen have gone 12W 5D 9L in their last 26 games (1.58 PPG), while Stade Lausanne-Ouchy have gone 5W 6D 15L in their last 26 (0.81 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FC ST. Gallen at home or Stade Lausanne-Ouchy away?
FC ST. Gallen's home record (2.38 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FC ST. Gallen at home: 2.38 PPG; Stade Lausanne-Ouchy away: 0.77 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 3 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2023 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 24 February 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
FC ST. Gallen go into this on the back of 3 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: FC ST. Gallen won 4-0 on 7 Oct 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, FC ST. Gallen have gone 2W 0D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Stade Lausanne-Ouchy — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 3 Meetings
3
FC ST. Gallen
0
Draws
0
Stade Lausanne-Ouchy
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between FC ST. Gallen and Stade Lausanne-Ouchy?
From 3 meetings on record, FC ST. Gallen have won 3, Stade Lausanne-Ouchy have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did FC ST. Gallen and Stade Lausanne-Ouchy last play each other?
They last met on 24 February 2024, when FC ST. Gallen 1-0 Stade Lausanne-Ouchy.
Who has won more matches between FC ST. Gallen and Stade Lausanne-Ouchy?
FC ST. Gallen have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 3 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
FC ST. Gallen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 54% of the time.
Stade Lausanne-Ouchy are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — FC ST. Gallen 62%, Stade Lausanne-Ouchy 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 85% for FC ST. Gallen and 62% for Stade Lausanne-Ouchy. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 54% and 31% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: FC ST. Gallen keep a clean sheet in 31% of their matches; Stade Lausanne-Ouchy in 31%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FC ST. Gallen home games / Stade Lausanne-Ouchy away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when FC ST. Gallen play Stade Lausanne-Ouchy?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 62% of FC ST. Gallen's games and 54% of Stade Lausanne-Ouchy's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is FC ST. Gallen vs Stade Lausanne-Ouchy usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 85% of FC ST. Gallen's matches and 62% of Stade Lausanne-Ouchy's.
Do FC ST. Gallen and Stade Lausanne-Ouchy tend to score early?
FC ST. Gallen have had a goal before half-time in 77% of their recent matches, Stade Lausanne-Ouchy in 69% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as FC ST. Gallen edge out Stade Lausanne-Ouchy 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
FC ST. Gallen beat Stade Lausanne-Ouchy 1-0 at kybunpark, Regular Season - 25, in the Super League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FC ST. Gallen 2.00 xG and Stade Lausanne-Ouchy 1.23 xG, a combined 3.24. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. FC ST. Gallen fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Stade Lausanne-Ouchy landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC ST. Gallen attack 1.14 / defence 1.14 against Stade Lausanne-Ouchy attack 0.88 / defence 1.16, drawn from 60/24 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it FC ST. Gallen 55% | Draw 22% | Stade Lausanne-Ouchy 23%, with FC ST. Gallen to win its most likely call at 55%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 63%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 83% and missed. Over 3.5 was 41% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC ST. Gallen 58%, Stade Lausanne-Ouchy 65%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
FC ST. Gallen's trading profile (26 games, 13 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not.
Stade Lausanne-Ouchy's trading profile (26 games, 13 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 27% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, FC ST. Gallen arrived the stronger side — 1.58 PPG against 0.81. The form guide was vindicated by the result. FC ST. Gallen (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.38 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.15 average — tighter than their form line. Stade Lausanne-Ouchy (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.15 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 1.85 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.