FC ST. Gallen 1-0 Stade Lausanne-Ouchy – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates FC ST. Gallen at 55% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this FC ST. Gallen vs Stade Lausanne-Ouchy encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
kybunpark plays host to FC ST. Gallen versus Stade Lausanne-Ouchy in Super League (matchday 25). Kick-off: Saturday 24 February 2024 at 17:00 UK time.
Form
FC ST. Gallen (all games): 3W 1D 6L across their last 10 — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L L L L D. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence.
FC ST. Gallen at home: 7W 1D 2L from their last 10 home games — 2.20 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.30 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.20 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.00 — FC ST. Gallen are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Stade Lausanne-Ouchy's record over their last 10 games: 1W 2D 7L (0.50 PPG). Last five: L L L D L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defence has been exposed regularly. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Stade Lausanne-Ouchy's away record over their last 10 away games: 2W 1D 7L (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game.
The points-per-game gap of 0.50 in FC ST. Gallen's favour (1.00 vs 0.50) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated the 2 H2H matches in our data: 2 wins for FC ST. Gallen, 0 for Stade Lausanne-Ouchy and 0 draws — leaving the H2H largely neutral. With only 2 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 2 H2H matches in our data have been high-scoring — 5.5 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 5 Nov 2023, ended FC ST. Gallen 5–2 Stade Lausanne-Ouchy — a FC ST. Gallen win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 5.5 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
Trading
FC ST. Gallen half-time and goal-timing data (last 26 games, 13 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 77% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; of the 8 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 38%; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 85% of games (home games).
Stade Lausanne-Ouchy half-time and goal-timing data (last 26 games, 13 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 69% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; of the 5 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 40%; of the 12 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 25%; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — FC ST. Gallen 54% versus Stade Lausanne-Ouchy 65%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (FC ST. Gallen 58% | Stade Lausanne-Ouchy 65%). Note also that Stade Lausanne-Ouchy surrender HT leads in 40% of cases while FC ST. Gallen recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 38% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FC ST. Gallen 2.00 xG and Stade Lausanne-Ouchy 1.23 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC ST. Gallen attack 1.138 / defence 1.137 | Stade Lausanne-Ouchy attack 0.880 / defence 1.159. League average goals — home 1.519 / away 1.231. Data: built from FC ST. Gallen's last 60 games and Stade Lausanne-Ouchy's last 24.
Result probabilities: FC ST. Gallen 55% | Draw 22% | Stade Lausanne-Ouchy 23%. Fair-value odds: FC ST. Gallen 1.81 | Draw 4.64 | Stade Lausanne-Ouchy 4.32. The model has a clear lean to FC ST. Gallen (55%) — a 32pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 63% | BTTS Yes probability 61% | Total xG 3.24. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 63% — the 3.24 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 61% — both xG figures (2.00 / 1.23) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is FC ST. Gallen at 55% — clear model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.24 combined xG gives a 63% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (FC ST. Gallen's last 10 home games and Stade Lausanne-Ouchy's last 10 away games) averaging 3.4 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 61%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: FC ST. Gallen 60% (last 10 home games) | Stade Lausanne-Ouchy 50% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FC ST. Gallen vs Stade Lausanne-Ouchy | Competition: Super League, matchday 25 | Venue: kybunpark • Kick-off: Saturday 24 February 2024 at 17:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FC ST. Gallen 55% | Draw 22% | Stade Lausanne-Ouchy 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 63% (Under 37%) | BTTS Yes 61% (No 39%) | xG FC ST. Gallen 2.00 / Stade Lausanne-Ouchy 1.23 • Poisson strength factors: FC ST. Gallen attack 1.138 / def 1.137 | Stade Lausanne-Ouchy attack 0.880 / def 1.159 | league avg home 1.519 / away 1.231 • Poisson stance: FC ST. Gallen (55%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.00
FC ST. Gallen xG
Expected Goals
1.23
Stade Lausanne-Ouchy xG
61%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
63%
Over 2.5
41%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ FC ST. Gallen vs Stade Lausanne-Ouchy FAQs
What time does FC ST. Gallen vs Stade Lausanne-Ouchy kick off?
FC ST. Gallen vs Stade Lausanne-Ouchy kicked off at 17:00 UK time on Saturday 24 February 2024 at kybunpark.
What was the final score in FC ST. Gallen vs Stade Lausanne-Ouchy?
FC ST. Gallen 1 - 0 Stade Lausanne-Ouchy.
Where is FC ST. Gallen vs Stade Lausanne-Ouchy being played?
The match is being played at kybunpark.
What competition is FC ST. Gallen vs Stade Lausanne-Ouchy part of?
FC ST. Gallen vs Stade Lausanne-Ouchy is a Super League fixture (matchday 25) (Switzerland).
Who is favourite to win FC ST. Gallen vs Stade Lausanne-Ouchy?
Our statistical model gives FC ST. Gallen a 55% chance of winning, Stade Lausanne-Ouchy a 23% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making FC ST. Gallen the favourite.
Will both teams score in FC ST. Gallen vs Stade Lausanne-Ouchy?
Our model estimates a 61% probability that both FC ST. Gallen and Stade Lausanne-Ouchy will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will FC ST. Gallen vs Stade Lausanne-Ouchy have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 63%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
FC ST. Gallen's attacking strength (1.14x league average) is weighed against Stade Lausanne-Ouchy's defensive record (1.16x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.00. Flip it around — Stade Lausanne-Ouchy's attack (0.88x) against FC ST. Gallen's defence (1.14x) — and the away total comes out at 1.23.
These ratings are built from FC ST. Gallen's last 60 games and Stade Lausanne-Ouchy's last 24 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.0%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.7%), 2-0 (7.9%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
FC ST. Gallen Win
55%
1.81
22%
4.64
23%
4.32
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.7%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.7%
Home win
1 – 0
7.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.00
FC ST. Gallen xG
Total xG
3.24
1.23
Stade Lausanne-Ouchy xG
1.81
55%
Home win
4.64
22%
Draw
4.32
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
63%
Over 2.5
1.59
37%
Under 2.5
2.70
41%
Over 3.5
2.44
59%
Under 3.5
1.69
23%
Over 4.5
4.35
77%
Under 4.5
1.30
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
61%
BTTS Yes
1.63
39%
BTTS No
2.58
Clean Sheet
29%
3.42
13%
7.42
Win to Nil
16%
6.20
3%
32.03
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.9 | 4.8 | 3.0 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 7.9 | 9.7 | 6.0 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.9 | 9.7 | 6.0 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 5.3 | 6.5 | 4.0 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.6 | 3.3 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.1 | 1.3 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ FC ST. Gallen vs Stade Lausanne-Ouchy Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for FC ST. Gallen vs Stade Lausanne-Ouchy?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.0%.
How many goals are FC ST. Gallen and Stade Lausanne-Ouchy expected to score?
The model projects 2.00 expected goals for FC ST. Gallen and 1.23 for Stade Lausanne-Ouchy, a combined total of 3.24.
How confident is the prediction model for FC ST. Gallen vs Stade Lausanne-Ouchy?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 55%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
FC ST. Gallen come into this having played 26 games, going 12W 5D 9L for 1.58 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-L-L-D.
On the other side, Stade Lausanne-Ouchy sit at 0.81 PPG from 26 outings (5W 6D 15L), a run that reads L-L-L-D-L across their last five.
FC ST. Gallen carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.77 PPG clear of Stade Lausanne-Ouchy — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
FC ST. Gallen's home form reads 10W 1D 2L across their last 13 home games, a 2.38 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.58 PPG overall — FC ST. Gallen are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Stade Lausanne-Ouchy have taken 0.77 points per game from their last 13 away games (3W 1D 9L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, FC ST. Gallen come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
FC ST. Gallen are averaging 1.65 goals scored and 1.27 conceded per game recently; Stade Lausanne-Ouchy are on 1.19 scored and 2.04 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Stade Lausanne-Ouchy in 65%.
Last 26 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FC ST. Gallen
Blended
Stade Lausanne-Ouchy
Blended
FC ST. Gallen (Home) vs Stade Lausanne-Ouchy (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
FC ST. Gallen
Blended
Stade Lausanne-Ouchy
Blended
❓ FC ST. Gallen vs Stade Lausanne-Ouchy Form FAQs
What form are FC ST. Gallen and Stade Lausanne-Ouchy in coming into this match?
FC ST. Gallen have gone 12W 5D 9L in their last 26 games (1.58 PPG), while Stade Lausanne-Ouchy have gone 5W 6D 15L in their last 26 (0.81 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FC ST. Gallen at home or Stade Lausanne-Ouchy away?
FC ST. Gallen's home record (2.38 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FC ST. Gallen at home: 2.38 PPG; Stade Lausanne-Ouchy away: 0.77 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 3 H2H matches between FC ST. Gallen and Stade Lausanne-Ouchy, the earliest from October 2023. All of them came in Super League. The most recent in our data was on 24 February 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
FC ST. Gallen have won the most recent 3 H2H matches in our data — the current momentum in this pairing sits with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: FC ST. Gallen won FC ST. Gallen 4-0 Stade Lausanne-Ouchy on 7 Oct 2023, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, FC ST. Gallen have gone 2W 0D 0L from the 2 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Stade Lausanne-Ouchy — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 3 Meetings
3
FC ST. Gallen
0
Draws
0
Stade Lausanne-Ouchy
Recent Meetings
❓ FC ST. Gallen vs Stade Lausanne-Ouchy H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between FC ST. Gallen and Stade Lausanne-Ouchy?
Across the 3 head-to-head matches in our data, FC ST. Gallen have won 3, Stade Lausanne-Ouchy have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did FC ST. Gallen and Stade Lausanne-Ouchy last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 24 February 2024: FC ST. Gallen 1-0 Stade Lausanne-Ouchy.
Who has won more matches between FC ST. Gallen and Stade Lausanne-Ouchy?
FC ST. Gallen have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 3 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
FC ST. Gallen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 54% of the time.
Stade Lausanne-Ouchy are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — FC ST. Gallen 62%, Stade Lausanne-Ouchy 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 85% for FC ST. Gallen and 62% for Stade Lausanne-Ouchy. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 54% and 31% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: FC ST. Gallen keep a clean sheet in 31% of their matches; Stade Lausanne-Ouchy in 31%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FC ST. Gallen home games / Stade Lausanne-Ouchy away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ FC ST. Gallen vs Stade Lausanne-Ouchy Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in FC ST. Gallen and Stade Lausanne-Ouchy matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 62% of FC ST. Gallen's games and 54% of Stade Lausanne-Ouchy's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are FC ST. Gallen and Stade Lausanne-Ouchy matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 85% of FC ST. Gallen's matches and 62% of Stade Lausanne-Ouchy's.
Do FC ST. Gallen and Stade Lausanne-Ouchy matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 77% of FC ST. Gallen's recent matches and 69% of Stade Lausanne-Ouchy's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as FC ST. Gallen edge out Stade Lausanne-Ouchy 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
FC ST. Gallen beat Stade Lausanne-Ouchy 1-0 at kybunpark, Regular Season - 25, in the Super League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FC ST. Gallen 2.00 xG and Stade Lausanne-Ouchy 1.23 xG, a combined 3.24. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. FC ST. Gallen fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Stade Lausanne-Ouchy landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC ST. Gallen attack 1.14 / defence 1.14 against Stade Lausanne-Ouchy attack 0.88 / defence 1.16, drawn from 60/24 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it FC ST. Gallen 55% | Draw 22% | Stade Lausanne-Ouchy 23%, with FC ST. Gallen to win its most likely call at 55%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 63%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 83% and missed. Over 3.5 was 41% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC ST. Gallen 58%, Stade Lausanne-Ouchy 65%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
FC ST. Gallen's trading profile (26 games, 13 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not.
Stade Lausanne-Ouchy's trading profile (26 games, 13 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 27% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, FC ST. Gallen arrived the stronger side — 1.58 PPG against 0.81. The form guide was vindicated by the result. FC ST. Gallen (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.38 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.15 average — tighter than their form line. Stade Lausanne-Ouchy (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.15 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 1.85 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.