FC Thun 1-3 FC Basel 1893 – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates FC Basel 1893 at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this FC Thun vs FC Basel 1893 fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Super League clash, Regular Season - 6 as FC Thun welcome FC Basel 1893 to Stockhorn Arena. Kick-off is set for Saturday 13 September 2025 at 17:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, FC Thun stand at 4W 1D 0L from 5 Super League matches — 2.60 PPG. Last five: W W W W D. They are averaging 2.20 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 1 clean sheet from 5 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. FC Thun have played only a handful of Super League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Across all Super League games this season, FC Basel 1893 have recorded 7W 0D 3L from 10 outings — 2.10 PPG. Last five: L W W L W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.80 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. FC Basel 1893 have played only a handful of Super League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
FC Basel 1893's form when playing away from home: 5W 2D 3L across 10 road games this term (1.70 PPG). They are averaging 2.20 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
FC Thun are in the better shape of the two on current Super League data — 0.50 PPG ahead (2.60 vs 2.10). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using overall form). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
In-Play Profile
FC Thun in-play tendencies (5 games): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 80% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 80% of games.
FC Basel 1893 in-play tendencies (5 games): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures; they lead at the break 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 80% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 80% of games; Over 3.5 in 40%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — FC Thun 80% and FC Basel 1893 80% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (FC Thun 80% | FC Basel 1893 80%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FC Thun 1.30 xG and FC Basel 1893 1.48 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC Thun attack 0.878 / defence 1.045 | FC Basel 1893 attack 0.988 / defence 0.918. League average goals — home 1.617 / away 1.437. Data: 5 FC Thun games / 38 FC Basel 1893 games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: FC Thun 32% | Draw 27% | FC Basel 1893 40%. Fair-value odds: FC Thun 3.12 | Draw 3.70 | FC Basel 1893 2.50. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.79. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.79 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, FC Basel 1893 are the pick at 40% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form FC Thun (2.60 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on FC Basel 1893 offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.79 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 53% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 57%. Form rates corroborate: FC Thun 80% | FC Basel 1893 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FC Thun vs FC Basel 1893 | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 6 | Venue: Stockhorn Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 13 Sep 2025, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FC Thun 32% | Draw 27% | FC Basel 1893 40% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% | BTTS 57% | xG FC Thun 1.30 / FC Basel 1893 1.48 • Poisson strength factors: FC Thun attack 0.878 / def 1.045 | FC Basel 1893 attack 0.988 / def 0.918 | league avg home 1.617 / away 1.437 • Poisson stance: FC Basel 1893 (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.30
FC Thun xG
Expected Goals
1.48
FC Basel 1893 xG
57%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does FC Thun vs FC Basel 1893 kick off?
FC Thun vs FC Basel 1893 kicked off at 17:00 on Saturday 13 September 2025 at Stockhorn Arena.
What was the final score in FC Thun vs FC Basel 1893?
FC Thun 1 - 3 FC Basel 1893.
Where is FC Thun vs FC Basel 1893 being played?
The match is being played at Stockhorn Arena.
What competition is FC Thun vs FC Basel 1893 part of?
FC Thun vs FC Basel 1893 is a Regular Season - 6 fixture in the Super League (Switzerland).
Who is favourite to win FC Thun vs FC Basel 1893?
Our statistical model gives FC Thun a 32% chance of winning, FC Basel 1893 a 40% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making FC Basel 1893 the favourite.
Will both teams score in FC Thun vs FC Basel 1893?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both FC Thun and FC Basel 1893 will score (BTTS).
Will FC Thun vs FC Basel 1893 have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%.
What is the head-to-head record between FC Thun and FC Basel 1893?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are FC Thun and FC Basel 1893 in?
FC Thun (all comps): 4W-1D-0L in 5 | 2.60 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-W-W-W-D. FC Basel 1893 (all comps): 7W-0D-3L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 2.80 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-W-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from FC Thun's attack rating (0.88) and FC Basel 1893's defence rating (0.92), the model arrives at 1.30 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, FC Basel 1893's attack versus FC Thun's defence, projects 1.48 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 5/38 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.5%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.8%), 2-1 (7.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
FC Basel 1893 Win
32%
3.11
27%
3.65
40%
2.47
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.9%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
9.2%
Away win
1 – 2
8.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.30
FC Thun xG
Total xG
2.79
1.48
FC Basel 1893 xG
3.11
32%
Home win
3.65
27%
Draw
2.47
40%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.74
43%
BTTS No
2.35
Clean Sheet
23%
4.41
27%
3.68
Win to Nil
7%
13.68
11%
9.10
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.2 | 9.2 | 6.8 | 3.4 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 8.0 | 11.9 | 8.8 | 4.4 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.2 | 7.8 | 5.8 | 2.8 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.3 | 3.4 | 2.5 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 1.1 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for FC Thun vs FC Basel 1893?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.5%.
How many goals are FC Thun and FC Basel 1893 expected to score?
The model projects 1.30 expected goals for FC Thun and 1.48 for FC Basel 1893, a combined total of 2.79.
How confident is the prediction model for FC Thun vs FC Basel 1893?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
FC Thun come into this having played 5 games, going 4W 1D 0L for 2.60 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-W-W-D. It's still early in the season for FC Thun, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, FC Basel 1893 sit at 1.80 PPG from 5 outings (3W 0D 2L), a run that reads L-W-W-L-W across their last five. It's still early in the season for FC Basel 1893, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
FC Thun carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.80 PPG clear of FC Basel 1893 — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Goals in Recent Form
FC Thun are averaging 2.20 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game recently; FC Basel 1893 are on 1.80 scored and 1.40 conceded. FC Basel 1893's attacking output running into FC Thun's solid defensive record is the key goals-market tension in this fixture.
On BTTS specifically: FC Thun have seen both teams score in 80% of their recent games; FC Basel 1893 in 80%.
Last 5 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FC Thun
Early Season
FC Basel 1893
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are FC Thun and FC Basel 1893 in coming into this match?
FC Thun have gone 4W 1D 0L in their last 5 games (2.60 PPG), while FC Basel 1893 have gone 3W 0D 2L in their last 5 (1.80 PPG).
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
5 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2025. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. The two were last together as recently as 9 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear current trend here: FC Basel 1893 have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
FC Thun's record when hosting FC Basel 1893 specifically: 1W 0D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 5 Meetings
2
FC Thun
0
Draws
3
FC Basel 1893
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between FC Thun and FC Basel 1893?
From 5 meetings on record, FC Thun have won 2, FC Basel 1893 have won 3, and 0 have been drawn.
When did FC Thun and FC Basel 1893 last play each other?
They last met on 9 August 2026, when FC Basel 1893 4-2 FC Thun.
Who has won more matches between FC Thun and FC Basel 1893?
FC Basel 1893 have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 5 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
FC Thun are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
FC Basel 1893 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 60% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — FC Thun at 80%, FC Basel 1893 at 80%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 80% for FC Thun and 80% for FC Basel 1893. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 20% and 40% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FC Thun home games / FC Basel 1893 away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when FC Thun play FC Basel 1893?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 80% of FC Thun's games and 80% of FC Basel 1893's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is FC Thun vs FC Basel 1893 usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 80% of FC Thun's matches and 80% of FC Basel 1893's.
Do FC Thun and FC Basel 1893 tend to score early?
FC Thun have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, FC Basel 1893 in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
FC Basel 1893 cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over FC Thun.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
FC Basel 1893 beat FC Thun 1-3 at Stockhorn Arena, Regular Season - 6, in the Super League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FC Thun 1.30 xG and FC Basel 1893 1.48 xG, a combined 2.79. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. FC Basel 1893 outscored their 1.48 projection by 1.5. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC Thun attack 0.88 / defence 1.04 against FC Basel 1893 attack 0.99 / defence 0.92, drawn from 5/38 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it FC Thun 32% | Draw 27% | FC Basel 1893 40%, with FC Basel 1893 to win its most likely call at 40%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. Over 3.5 was 30% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 80% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC Thun 80%, FC Basel 1893 80%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 80%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
FC Thun's trading profile (5 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 80% of their matches — today it did.
FC Basel 1893's trading profile (5 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 80% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, FC Thun arrived the stronger side — 2.60 PPG against 1.80. Form was overturned, with FC Basel 1893 winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. FC Thun managed 1 against a 2.20 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 0.80 concession average — a leakier day than usual. FC Basel 1893 scored 3 against a 1.80 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.