FC Sion 1-1 FC ST. Gallen – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates FC Sion at 41%, yet other data sources diverge — this FC Sion vs FC ST. Gallen fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Super League clash, Relegation Round - 3 as FC Sion welcome FC ST. Gallen to Stade de Tourbillon. Kick-off is set for Tuesday 13 May 2025 at 19:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Super League games this season, FC Sion have gone 2W 4D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.00 PPG return. Last five: L D L W D. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
FC Sion's form when playing at home: 5W 3D 2L across 10 games at Stade de Tourbillon this term (1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 90% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.00 — FC Sion are significantly better at Stade de Tourbillon than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, FC ST. Gallen stand at 3W 3D 4L from 10 Super League matches — 1.20 PPG. Last five: W D W D L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
FC ST. Gallen away from home this season: 2W 4D 4L from 10 away games — 1.00 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.00 PPG (FC Sion) versus 1.20 (FC ST. Gallen). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for FC Sion, 2 for FC ST. Gallen and 2 shared spoils from 4 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.8 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 21 Apr 2025, ended 0–1 with FC ST. Gallen winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
FC Sion in-play tendencies (35 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (home games).
FC ST. Gallen in-play tendencies (35 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — FC Sion 63% and FC ST. Gallen 63% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (FC Sion 49% | FC ST. Gallen 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FC Sion 1.35 xG and FC ST. Gallen 1.12 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC Sion attack 0.925 / defence 1.155 | FC ST. Gallen attack 0.820 / defence 0.948. League average goals — home 1.537 / away 1.181. Data: 33 FC Sion games / 66 FC ST. Gallen games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: FC Sion 41% | Draw 28% | FC ST. Gallen 30%. Fair-value odds: FC Sion 2.44 | Draw 3.57 | FC ST. Gallen 3.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.47. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.47 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates FC Sion as the most likely outcome at 41% — marginal model lean. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on FC Sion offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.47 combined xG gives a 45% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though H2H averaging only 2.8 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 50% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: FC Sion 90% | FC ST. Gallen 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FC Sion vs FC ST. Gallen | Competition: Super League, Relegation Round - 3 | Venue: Stade de Tourbillon • Kick-off: Tuesday 13 May 2025, 19:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FC Sion 41% | Draw 28% | FC ST. Gallen 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 50% | xG FC Sion 1.35 / FC ST. Gallen 1.12 • Poisson strength factors: FC Sion attack 0.925 / def 1.155 | FC ST. Gallen attack 0.820 / def 0.948 | league avg home 1.537 / away 1.181 • Poisson stance: FC Sion (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.35
FC Sion xG
Expected Goals
1.12
FC ST. Gallen xG
50%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does FC Sion vs FC ST. Gallen kick off?
FC Sion vs FC ST. Gallen kicked off at 19:30 on Tuesday 13 May 2025 at Stade de Tourbillon.
What was the final score in FC Sion vs FC ST. Gallen?
FC Sion 1 - 1 FC ST. Gallen.
Where is FC Sion vs FC ST. Gallen being played?
The match is being played at Stade de Tourbillon.
What competition is FC Sion vs FC ST. Gallen part of?
FC Sion vs FC ST. Gallen is a Relegation Round - 3 fixture in the Super League (Switzerland).
Who is favourite to win FC Sion vs FC ST. Gallen?
Our statistical model gives FC Sion a 41% chance of winning, FC ST. Gallen a 30% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making FC Sion the favourite.
Will both teams score in FC Sion vs FC ST. Gallen?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both FC Sion and FC ST. Gallen will score (BTTS).
Will FC Sion vs FC ST. Gallen have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between FC Sion and FC ST. Gallen?
Record (4 meetings): FC Sion 0W | Draws 2 | FC ST. Gallen 2W.
What form are FC Sion and FC ST. Gallen in?
FC Sion (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-D-L-W-D. FC ST. Gallen (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-D-W-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
FC Sion's attacking strength (0.93x league average) is weighed against FC ST. Gallen's defensive record (0.95x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.35. The same calculation in reverse, FC ST. Gallen's attack versus FC Sion's defence, projects 1.12 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 33/66 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.5%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.2%), 1-0 (9.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
FC Sion Win
41%
2.41
28%
3.55
30%
3.29
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.4%
Home win
0 – 1
9.5%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.35
FC Sion xG
Total xG
2.47
1.12
FC ST. Gallen xG
2.41
41%
Home win
3.55
28%
Draw
3.29
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
1.98
50%
BTTS No
2.02
Clean Sheet
33%
3.06
26%
3.85
Win to Nil
14%
7.38
8%
12.66
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.5 | 9.5 | 5.3 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.4 | 12.8 | 7.2 | 2.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.7 | 8.6 | 4.8 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.5 | 3.9 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for FC Sion vs FC ST. Gallen?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are FC Sion and FC ST. Gallen expected to score?
The model projects 1.35 expected goals for FC Sion and 1.12 for FC ST. Gallen, a combined total of 2.47.
How confident is the prediction model for FC Sion vs FC ST. Gallen?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
FC Sion come into this having played 35 games, going 10W 10D 15L for 1.14 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-L-W-D.
On the other side, FC ST. Gallen sit at 1.37 PPG from 35 outings (12W 12D 11L), a run that reads W-D-W-D-L across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: FC Sion on 1.14 PPG, FC ST. Gallen on 1.37. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
FC Sion's home form reads 7W 7D 3L across 17 games on their own ground, a 1.65 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.14 PPG overall — FC Sion are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, FC ST. Gallen have taken 1.06 points per game from 17 outings (4W 6D 7L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, FC Sion come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
FC Sion are averaging 1.26 goals scored and 1.51 conceded per game recently; FC ST. Gallen are on 1.37 scored and 1.37 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: FC Sion have seen both teams score in 63% of their recent games; FC ST. Gallen in 63%.
Last 35 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FC Sion
Current Season
FC ST. Gallen
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are FC Sion and FC ST. Gallen in coming into this match?
FC Sion have gone 10W 10D 15L in their last 35 games (1.14 PPG), while FC ST. Gallen have gone 12W 12D 11L in their last 35 (1.37 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FC Sion at home or FC ST. Gallen away?
FC Sion's home record (1.65 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FC Sion at home: 1.65 PPG; FC ST. Gallen away: 1.06 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between FC Sion and FC ST. Gallen runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to May 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. The two were last together as recently as 12 September 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: FC Sion have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 29 May 2023, when FC ST. Gallen won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
FC Sion's record when hosting FC ST. Gallen specifically: 1W 3D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
FC Sion
4
Draws
3
FC ST. Gallen
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between FC Sion and FC ST. Gallen?
From 10 meetings on record, FC Sion have won 3, FC ST. Gallen have won 3, and 4 have been drawn.
When did FC Sion and FC ST. Gallen last play each other?
They last met on 12 September 2026, when FC ST. Gallen 0-3 FC Sion.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
FC Sion are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 41% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
FC ST. Gallen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — FC Sion at 71%, FC ST. Gallen at 65%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 53% (FC Sion) and 41% (FC ST. Gallen).
On the defensive side: FC ST. Gallen in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FC Sion home games / FC ST. Gallen away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when FC Sion play FC ST. Gallen?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 71% of FC Sion's games and 65% of FC ST. Gallen's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is FC Sion vs FC ST. Gallen usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 53% of FC Sion's recent games and 41% of FC ST. Gallen's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do FC Sion and FC ST. Gallen tend to score early?
FC Sion have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, FC ST. Gallen in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
FC Sion and FC ST. Gallen share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
FC Sion and FC ST. Gallen finished level at 1-1 at Stade de Tourbillon, Relegation Round - 3, in the Super League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FC Sion 1.35 xG and FC ST. Gallen 1.12 xG, a combined 2.47. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC Sion attack 0.93 / defence 1.16 against FC ST. Gallen attack 0.82 / defence 0.95, drawn from 33/66 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it FC Sion 41% | Draw 28% | FC ST. Gallen 30%, with FC Sion to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC Sion 49%, FC ST. Gallen 46%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 63%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
FC Sion's trading profile (35 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did.
FC ST. Gallen's trading profile (35 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — FC Sion 1.14 PPG, FC ST. Gallen 1.37 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.