Vasteras SK FK 1-1 Orgryte IS – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Orgryte IS at 47%, yet other data sources diverge — this Vasteras SK FK vs Orgryte IS fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Vasteras SK FK host Orgryte IS at Hitachi Energy Arena in Superettan, Regular Season - 2. Kick-off is scheduled for Tuesday 8 April 2025 at 18:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Superettan games this season, Vasteras SK FK have gone 6W 2D 2L from 10 outings — a 2.00 PPG return. Last five: W W W L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 0.80 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Vasteras SK FK haven't played a Superettan game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
At home at Hitachi Energy Arena, Vasteras SK FK have gone 8W 1D 1L this season (10 games, 2.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Hitachi Energy Arena. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 2.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 2.00 — Vasteras SK FK are significantly better at Hitachi Energy Arena than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Orgryte IS stand at 6W 3D 1L from 10 Superettan matches — 2.10 PPG. Last five: L W D W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play.
Orgryte IS's away record: 4W 3D 3L from 10 road trips in Superettan this season (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.50 is notably below their overall 2.10 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form comparison is too close to call — 2.00 PPG (Vasteras SK FK) versus 2.10 (Orgryte IS). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 6 previous meetings, Vasteras SK FK have won 0, Orgryte IS 1, with 5 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 6 previous meetings have averaged 1.8 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 4 Nov 2023, ended 0–1 with Orgryte IS winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Vasteras SK FK trading profile (30 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 53% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 27% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time.
Orgryte IS trading profile (30 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Vasteras SK FK 40% versus Orgryte IS 70%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Vasteras SK FK 53% | Orgryte IS 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Vasteras SK FK 1.02 xG and Orgryte IS 1.44 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Vasteras SK FK attack 0.870 / defence 1.150 | Orgryte IS attack 1.015 / defence 0.993. League average goals — home 1.183 / away 1.232. Data: 1 Vasteras SK FK games / 31 Orgryte IS games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Vasteras SK FK 27% | Draw 27% | Orgryte IS 47%. Fair-value odds: Vasteras SK FK 3.70 | Draw 3.70 | Orgryte IS 2.13. Orgryte IS hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.46. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.46 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Orgryte IS at 47% — moderate model lean. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Orgryte IS offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.46 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 45% — reasonable confidence, supported by H2H averaging 1.8 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 49% on No. Form rates corroborate: Vasteras SK FK 30% | Orgryte IS 50% BTTS from recent games.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (1 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Vasteras SK FK vs Orgryte IS | Competition: Superettan, Regular Season - 2 | Venue: Hitachi Energy Arena • Kick-off: Tuesday 8 Apr 2025, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Vasteras SK FK 27% | Draw 27% | Orgryte IS 47% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 49% | xG Vasteras SK FK 1.02 / Orgryte IS 1.44 • Poisson strength factors: Vasteras SK FK attack 0.870 / def 1.150 | Orgryte IS attack 1.015 / def 0.993 | league avg home 1.183 / away 1.232 • Poisson stance: Orgryte IS (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.02
Vasteras SK FK xG
Expected Goals
1.44
Orgryte IS xG
49%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Vasteras SK FK vs Orgryte IS kick off?
Vasteras SK FK vs Orgryte IS kicked off at 18:00 on Tuesday 8 April 2025 at Hitachi Energy Arena.
What was the final score in Vasteras SK FK vs Orgryte IS?
Vasteras SK FK 1 - 1 Orgryte IS.
Where is Vasteras SK FK vs Orgryte IS being played?
The match is being played at Hitachi Energy Arena.
What competition is Vasteras SK FK vs Orgryte IS part of?
Vasteras SK FK vs Orgryte IS is a Regular Season - 2 fixture in the Superettan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Vasteras SK FK vs Orgryte IS?
Our statistical model gives Vasteras SK FK a 27% chance of winning, Orgryte IS a 47% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Orgryte IS the favourite.
Will both teams score in Vasteras SK FK vs Orgryte IS?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Vasteras SK FK and Orgryte IS will score (BTTS).
Will Vasteras SK FK vs Orgryte IS have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between Vasteras SK FK and Orgryte IS?
Record (6 meetings): Vasteras SK FK 0W | Draws 5 | Orgryte IS 1W.
What form are Vasteras SK FK and Orgryte IS in?
Vasteras SK FK (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-W-W-L-L. Orgryte IS (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-W-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Vasteras SK FK's attack rating (0.87) and Orgryte IS's defence rating (0.99), the model arrives at 1.02 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Orgryte IS's attack versus Vasteras SK FK's defence, projects 1.44 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (1/31 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.2%. Close behind: 0-1 (10.7%), 0-0 (10.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Orgryte IS Win
27%
3.73
27%
3.77
47%
2.14
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
12.3%
Away win
1 – 2
9.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.02
Vasteras SK FK xG
Total xG
2.46
1.44
Orgryte IS xG
3.73
27%
Home win
3.77
27%
Draw
2.14
47%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.05
51%
BTTS No
1.95
Clean Sheet
24%
4.21
36%
2.78
Win to Nil
6%
15.71
17%
5.96
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.5 | 12.3 | 8.8 | 4.2 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 8.7 | 12.6 | 9.0 | 4.3 | 1.6 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 4.5 | 6.4 | 4.6 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.5 | 2.2 | 1.6 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Vasteras SK FK vs Orgryte IS?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.2%.
How many goals are Vasteras SK FK and Orgryte IS expected to score?
The model projects 1.02 expected goals for Vasteras SK FK and 1.44 for Orgryte IS, a combined total of 2.46.
How confident is the prediction model for Vasteras SK FK vs Orgryte IS?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Vasteras SK FK come into this having played 30 games, going 19W 6D 5L for 2.10 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-W-L-L. Vasteras SK FK haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
On the other side, Orgryte IS sit at 1.47 PPG from 30 outings (12W 8D 10L), a run that reads L-W-D-W-W across their last five.
Vasteras SK FK carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.63 PPG clear of Orgryte IS — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Vasteras SK FK's home form reads 10W 4D 1L across 15 games on their own ground, a 2.27 PPG return.
Away from home, Orgryte IS have taken 1.33 points per game from 15 outings (5W 5D 5L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Vasteras SK FK come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Vasteras SK FK are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game recently; Orgryte IS are on 1.67 scored and 1.43 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Orgryte IS in 70%.
Defensively: Vasteras SK FK have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 30 Results — Superettan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Vasteras SK FK
Pre-Season
Orgryte IS
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Vasteras SK FK and Orgryte IS in coming into this match?
Vasteras SK FK have gone 19W 6D 5L in their last 30 games (2.10 PPG), while Orgryte IS have gone 12W 8D 10L in their last 30 (1.47 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Vasteras SK FK at home or Orgryte IS away?
Vasteras SK FK's home record (2.27 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Vasteras SK FK at home: 2.27 PPG; Orgryte IS away: 1.33 PPG.
Have Vasteras SK FK or Orgryte IS been keeping clean sheets recently?
Vasteras SK FK have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their recent games, Orgryte IS in 20%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Vasteras SK FK and Orgryte IS runs to 9 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to May 2021. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Superettan, Allsvenskan all feature in the head-to-head log. The two were last together as recently as 24 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
Vasteras SK FK go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
Vasteras SK FK's record when hosting Orgryte IS specifically: 1W 4D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 9 Meetings
2
Vasteras SK FK
6
Draws
1
Orgryte IS
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Vasteras SK FK and Orgryte IS?
From 9 meetings on record, Vasteras SK FK have won 2, Orgryte IS have won 1, and 6 have been drawn.
When did Vasteras SK FK and Orgryte IS last play each other?
They last met on 24 July 2026, when Vasteras SK FK 2-0 Orgryte IS.
Who has won more matches between Vasteras SK FK and Orgryte IS?
Vasteras SK FK have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 9 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Vasteras SK FK see a goal before the break in 53% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Orgryte IS are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Vasteras SK FK 27%, Orgryte IS 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 47% (Vasteras SK FK) and 40% (Orgryte IS).
On the defensive side: Vasteras SK FK keep a clean sheet in 67% of their matches; Vasteras SK FK have failed to score in 33% of games; Orgryte IS in 27%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Vasteras SK FK home games / Orgryte IS away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Vasteras SK FK play Orgryte IS?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 27% of Vasteras SK FK's recent matches and 60% of Orgryte IS's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Vasteras SK FK vs Orgryte IS usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 47% of Vasteras SK FK's recent games and 40% of Orgryte IS's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Vasteras SK FK and Orgryte IS tend to score early?
Vasteras SK FK have had a goal before half-time in 53% of their recent matches, Orgryte IS in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Vasteras SK FK and Orgryte IS share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Hitachi Energy Arena, Regular Season - 2, as Vasteras SK FK and Orgryte IS drew 1-1 in the Superettan. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Vasteras SK FK 1.02 xG and Orgryte IS 1.44 xG, a combined 2.46. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Vasteras SK FK attack 0.87 / defence 1.15 against Orgryte IS attack 1.01 / defence 0.99, drawn from 1/31 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Vasteras SK FK 27% | Draw 27% | Orgryte IS 47%, with Orgryte IS to win its most likely call at 47%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Vasteras SK FK 53%, Orgryte IS 60%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Vasteras SK FK's trading profile (30 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time, and conceded here.
Orgryte IS's trading profile (30 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 70% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Vasteras SK FK arrived the stronger side — 2.10 PPG against 1.47. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.