Vasteras SK FK 1-0 Landskrona BoIS – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Landskrona BoIS at 41%, yet in-form Vasteras SK FK provide a compelling counter-argument — this Vasteras SK FK vs Landskrona BoIS fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Superettan clash, Regular Season - 14 as Vasteras SK FK welcome Landskrona BoIS to Hitachi Energy Arena. Kick-off is set for Saturday 28 June 2025 at 12:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Vasteras SK FK — All Games: 6W 2D 2L from 10 Superettan outings this season, averaging 2.00 points per game. Last five: W W W L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 0.80 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Vasteras SK FK haven't played a Superettan game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
Vasteras SK FK's form when playing at home: 8W 1D 1L across 10 games at Hitachi Energy Arena this term (2.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Hitachi Energy Arena. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 2.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 2.00 — Vasteras SK FK are significantly better at Hitachi Energy Arena than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Landskrona BoIS stand at 3W 2D 5L from 10 Superettan matches — 1.10 PPG. Last five: W L W D L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
Landskrona BoIS's away record: 4W 1D 5L from 10 road trips in Superettan this season (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
Vasteras SK FK carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.90 PPG ahead of their opponents on 2.00 vs 1.10. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 6 previous encounters have yielded 3 wins for Vasteras SK FK, 2 for Landskrona BoIS and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.7 per contest from 6 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 22 Oct 2023, ended 1–0 with Vasteras SK FK winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.7 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Profile
Vasteras SK FK in-play tendencies (30 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 53% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 27% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time.
Landskrona BoIS in-play tendencies (30 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 56% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Vasteras SK FK 40% versus Landskrona BoIS 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Vasteras SK FK 53% | Landskrona BoIS 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Vasteras SK FK 1.72 xG and Landskrona BoIS 1.82 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Vasteras SK FK attack 0.936 / defence 1.103 | Landskrona BoIS attack 1.221 / defence 1.230. League average goals — home 1.498 / away 1.353. Landskrona BoIS bring a strong defensive rating of 1.230 — this is suppressing Vasteras SK FK's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Landskrona BoIS have an above-average attack strength of 1.221 — the away xG of 1.82 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 13 Vasteras SK FK games / 43 Landskrona BoIS games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Vasteras SK FK 37% | Draw 22% | Landskrona BoIS 41%. Fair-value odds: Vasteras SK FK 2.70 | Draw 4.55 | Landskrona BoIS 2.44. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 22% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 69% | BTTS probability 69% | Total xG 3.55. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 69% — a total xG of 3.55 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 69% reflects that both xG figures (1.72 / 1.82) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Landskrona BoIS at 41% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Vasteras SK FK (2.00 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 22% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Landskrona BoIS offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 37% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.55 combined xG gives a 69% probability to Over 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though H2H averaging only 1.7 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 69% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: Vasteras SK FK 30% | Landskrona BoIS 50% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The outsider holds a 37% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Vasteras SK FK vs Landskrona BoIS | Competition: Superettan, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: Hitachi Energy Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 28 Jun 2025, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Vasteras SK FK 37% | Draw 22% | Landskrona BoIS 41% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 69% | BTTS 69% | xG Vasteras SK FK 1.72 / Landskrona BoIS 1.82 • Poisson strength factors: Vasteras SK FK attack 0.936 / def 1.103 | Landskrona BoIS attack 1.221 / def 1.230 | league avg home 1.498 / away 1.353 • Poisson stance: Landskrona BoIS (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.72
Vasteras SK FK xG
Expected Goals
1.82
Landskrona BoIS xG
69%
BTTS
87%
Over 1.5
69%
Over 2.5
47%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Vasteras SK FK vs Landskrona BoIS kick off?
Vasteras SK FK vs Landskrona BoIS kicked off at 12:00 on Saturday 28 June 2025 at Hitachi Energy Arena.
What was the final score in Vasteras SK FK vs Landskrona BoIS?
Vasteras SK FK 1 - 0 Landskrona BoIS.
Where is Vasteras SK FK vs Landskrona BoIS being played?
The match is being played at Hitachi Energy Arena.
What competition is Vasteras SK FK vs Landskrona BoIS part of?
Vasteras SK FK vs Landskrona BoIS is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the Superettan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Vasteras SK FK vs Landskrona BoIS?
Our statistical model gives Vasteras SK FK a 37% chance of winning, Landskrona BoIS a 41% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Landskrona BoIS the favourite.
Will both teams score in Vasteras SK FK vs Landskrona BoIS?
Our model estimates a 69% probability that both Vasteras SK FK and Landskrona BoIS will score (BTTS).
Will Vasteras SK FK vs Landskrona BoIS have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 69%.
What is the head-to-head record between Vasteras SK FK and Landskrona BoIS?
Record (6 meetings): Vasteras SK FK 3W | Draws 1 | Landskrona BoIS 2W.
What form are Vasteras SK FK and Landskrona BoIS in?
Vasteras SK FK (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-W-W-L-L. Landskrona BoIS (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-L-W-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Vasteras SK FK's attack rating (0.94) and Landskrona BoIS's defence rating (1.23), the model arrives at 1.72 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Landskrona BoIS's attack versus Vasteras SK FK's defence, projects 1.82 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 13/43 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 10.2%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.3%), 2-1 (7.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 26% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Landskrona BoIS Win
37%
2.71
22%
4.53
41%
2.44
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.3%
Away win
2 – 1
7.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.72
Vasteras SK FK xG
Total xG
3.55
1.82
Landskrona BoIS xG
2.71
37%
Home win
4.53
22%
Draw
2.44
41%
Away win
Goals Markets
87%
Over 1.5
1.15
13%
Under 1.5
7.69
69%
Over 2.5
1.45
31%
Under 2.5
3.23
47%
Over 3.5
2.13
53%
Under 3.5
1.89
28%
Over 4.5
3.57
72%
Under 4.5
1.39
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
69%
BTTS Yes
1.45
31%
BTTS No
3.21
Clean Sheet
16%
6.19
18%
5.61
Win to Nil
6%
16.76
7%
13.69
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.9 | 5.3 | 4.8 | 2.9 | 1.3 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 5.0 | 9.1 | 8.3 | 5.0 | 2.3 | 0.8 |
| 2 | 4.3 | 7.8 | 7.1 | 4.3 | 2.0 | 0.7 |
| 3 | 2.5 | 4.5 | 4.1 | 2.5 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.9 | 1.8 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Vasteras SK FK vs Landskrona BoIS?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.2%.
How many goals are Vasteras SK FK and Landskrona BoIS expected to score?
The model projects 1.72 expected goals for Vasteras SK FK and 1.82 for Landskrona BoIS, a combined total of 3.55.
How confident is the prediction model for Vasteras SK FK vs Landskrona BoIS?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Vasteras SK FK come into this having played 30 games, going 19W 6D 5L for 2.10 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-W-L-L. Vasteras SK FK haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
On the other side, Landskrona BoIS sit at 1.63 PPG from 30 outings (14W 7D 9L), a run that reads W-L-W-D-L across their last five.
Vasteras SK FK carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.47 PPG clear of Landskrona BoIS — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Vasteras SK FK's home form reads 10W 4D 1L across 15 games on their own ground, a 2.27 PPG return.
Away from home, Landskrona BoIS have taken 1.40 points per game from 15 outings (6W 3D 6L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Vasteras SK FK come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Vasteras SK FK are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game recently; Landskrona BoIS are on 1.53 scored and 1.13 conceded.
Defensively: Vasteras SK FK have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 30 Results — Superettan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Vasteras SK FK
Pre-Season
Landskrona BoIS
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Vasteras SK FK and Landskrona BoIS in coming into this match?
Vasteras SK FK have gone 19W 6D 5L in their last 30 games (2.10 PPG), while Landskrona BoIS have gone 14W 7D 9L in their last 30 (1.63 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Vasteras SK FK at home or Landskrona BoIS away?
Vasteras SK FK's home record (2.27 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Vasteras SK FK at home: 2.27 PPG; Landskrona BoIS away: 1.40 PPG.
Have Vasteras SK FK or Landskrona BoIS been keeping clean sheets recently?
Vasteras SK FK have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their recent games, Landskrona BoIS in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Superettan. It has been a while since the last meeting — 3 August 2025, some 4 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear current trend here: Vasteras SK FK have taken the last 3 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 17 Jul 2022, when Vasteras SK FK won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Vasteras SK FK's record when hosting Landskrona BoIS specifically: 3W 1D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
5
Vasteras SK FK
1
Draws
2
Landskrona BoIS
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Vasteras SK FK and Landskrona BoIS?
From 8 meetings on record, Vasteras SK FK have won 5, Landskrona BoIS have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Vasteras SK FK and Landskrona BoIS last play each other?
They last met on 3 August 2025, when Landskrona BoIS 1-2 Vasteras SK FK.
Who has won more matches between Vasteras SK FK and Landskrona BoIS?
Vasteras SK FK have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Vasteras SK FK see a goal before the break in 53% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Landskrona BoIS are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Vasteras SK FK 27%, Landskrona BoIS 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 47% (Vasteras SK FK) and 60% (Landskrona BoIS).
On the defensive side: Vasteras SK FK keep a clean sheet in 67% of their matches; Vasteras SK FK have failed to score in 33% of games; Landskrona BoIS in 27%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Vasteras SK FK home games / Landskrona BoIS away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Vasteras SK FK play Landskrona BoIS?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 27% of Vasteras SK FK's recent matches and 60% of Landskrona BoIS's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Vasteras SK FK vs Landskrona BoIS usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 47% of Vasteras SK FK's recent games and 60% of Landskrona BoIS's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Vasteras SK FK and Landskrona BoIS tend to score early?
Vasteras SK FK have had a goal before half-time in 53% of their recent matches, Landskrona BoIS in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Vasteras SK FK defy the odds to beat Landskrona BoIS 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Vasteras SK FK beat Landskrona BoIS 1-0 at Hitachi Energy Arena, Regular Season - 14, in the Superettan. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Vasteras SK FK 1.72 xG and Landskrona BoIS 1.82 xG, a combined 3.55. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Landskrona BoIS landed 1.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Vasteras SK FK attack 0.94 / defence 1.10 against Landskrona BoIS attack 1.22 / defence 1.23, drawn from 13/43 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Vasteras SK FK 37% | Draw 22% | Landskrona BoIS 41%, with Landskrona BoIS to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual Vasteras SK FK win had been the model's second-ranked read at 37%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 69%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 87% and missed. Over 3.5 was 47% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 69% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Vasteras SK FK 53%, Landskrona BoIS 53%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Vasteras SK FK's trading profile (30 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time, and duly kept one.
Landskrona BoIS's trading profile (30 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 30% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Vasteras SK FK arrived the stronger side — 2.10 PPG against 1.63. That form edge translated into the three points. Landskrona BoIS (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.33 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.