Utsikten 4-0 Landskrona BoIS – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Utsikten at 41%, yet other data sources diverge — this Utsikten vs Landskrona BoIS fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Bravida Arena plays host to Utsikten versus Landskrona BoIS in Superettan, Regular Season - 23. Kick-off: Saturday 20 September 2025 at 14:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Utsikten have collected 0.80 PPG across 10 Superettan outings this season: 2W 2D 6L. Last five: L D L L L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Utsikten, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Bravida Arena, Utsikten have gone 3W 5D 2L this season (10 games, 1.40 PPG). They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 90% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.40 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.80 — Utsikten are significantly better at Bravida Arena than their overall form suggests.
Landskrona BoIS's overall Superettan record this term: 4W 2D 4L from 10 games (1.40 PPG). Last five: W W L W D. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 0.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Landskrona BoIS, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Landskrona BoIS's form when playing away from home: 4W 2D 4L across 10 road games this term (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Landskrona BoIS are 0.60 PPG clear of Utsikten in recent Superettan fixtures (1.40 vs 0.80). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Utsikten lead 3W to 3W over the last 7 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.3 goals per game across 7 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 12 Apr 2025, ended 1–2 with Landskrona BoIS winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.3 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading
Utsikten half-time and goal-timing data (52 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (home games).
Landskrona BoIS half-time and goal-timing data (52 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Utsikten 64% versus Landskrona BoIS 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Utsikten 56% | Landskrona BoIS 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Utsikten 1.42 xG and Landskrona BoIS 1.22 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Utsikten attack 1.131 / defence 1.156 | Landskrona BoIS attack 0.903 / defence 0.846. League average goals — home 1.484 / away 1.168. Data: 52 Utsikten games / 52 Landskrona BoIS games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Utsikten 41% | Draw 27% | Landskrona BoIS 32%. Fair-value odds: Utsikten 2.44 | Draw 3.70 | Landskrona BoIS 3.12. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.64. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.64 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Utsikten as the most likely outcome at 41% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Landskrona BoIS (1.40 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Utsikten if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.64 combined xG gives a 49% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though form averaging only 3.0 goals per game and H2H averaging only 3.3 goals per meeting point in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 54%. Form rates corroborate: Utsikten 90% | Landskrona BoIS 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Utsikten vs Landskrona BoIS | Competition: Superettan, Regular Season - 23 | Venue: Bravida Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 20 Sep 2025, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Utsikten 41% | Draw 27% | Landskrona BoIS 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% | BTTS 54% | xG Utsikten 1.42 / Landskrona BoIS 1.22 • Poisson strength factors: Utsikten attack 1.131 / def 1.156 | Landskrona BoIS attack 0.903 / def 0.846 | league avg home 1.484 / away 1.168 • Poisson stance: Utsikten (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.42
Utsikten xG
Expected Goals
1.22
Landskrona BoIS xG
54%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Utsikten vs Landskrona BoIS kick off?
Utsikten vs Landskrona BoIS kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 20 September 2025 at Bravida Arena.
What was the final score in Utsikten vs Landskrona BoIS?
Utsikten 4 - 0 Landskrona BoIS.
Where is Utsikten vs Landskrona BoIS being played?
The match is being played at Bravida Arena.
What competition is Utsikten vs Landskrona BoIS part of?
Utsikten vs Landskrona BoIS is a Regular Season - 23 fixture in the Superettan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Utsikten vs Landskrona BoIS?
Our statistical model gives Utsikten a 41% chance of winning, Landskrona BoIS a 32% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Utsikten the favourite.
Will both teams score in Utsikten vs Landskrona BoIS?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Utsikten and Landskrona BoIS will score (BTTS).
Will Utsikten vs Landskrona BoIS have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between Utsikten and Landskrona BoIS?
Record (7 meetings): Utsikten 3W | Draws 1 | Landskrona BoIS 3W.
What form are Utsikten and Landskrona BoIS in?
Utsikten (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-D-L-L-L. Landskrona BoIS (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-W-L-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Utsikten's attacking strength (1.13x league average) is weighed against Landskrona BoIS's defensive record (0.85x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.42. Flip it around — Landskrona BoIS's attack (0.90x) against Utsikten's defence (1.16x) — and the away total comes out at 1.22.
These ratings are built from 52/52 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.0%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.8%), 0-0 (8.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Utsikten Win
41%
2.44
27%
3.67
32%
3.15
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.1%
Home win
2 – 1
8.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.42
Utsikten xG
Total xG
2.64
1.22
Landskrona BoIS xG
2.44
41%
Home win
3.67
27%
Draw
3.15
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.85
46%
BTTS No
2.18
Clean Sheet
30%
3.38
24%
4.14
Win to Nil
12%
8.25
8%
13.05
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.1 | 8.7 | 5.3 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.1 | 12.4 | 7.5 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.2 | 8.8 | 5.4 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.4 | 4.2 | 2.5 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.5 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Utsikten vs Landskrona BoIS?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.0%.
How many goals are Utsikten and Landskrona BoIS expected to score?
The model projects 1.42 expected goals for Utsikten and 1.22 for Landskrona BoIS, a combined total of 2.64.
How confident is the prediction model for Utsikten vs Landskrona BoIS?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Utsikten's recent record stands at 15W 17D 20L from 52 games, a 1.19 PPG return, with L-D-L-L-L in the last five. The sample for Utsikten is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Landskrona BoIS, meanwhile, have gone 22W 13D 17L across 52 games — 1.52 PPG, with W-W-L-W-D in their last five. The sample for Landskrona BoIS is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.19 PPG for Utsikten against 1.52 for Landskrona BoIS. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Utsikten have managed 11W 8D 7L from 26 games — 1.58 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Landskrona BoIS's away record stands at 10W 5D 11L across 26 trips, a 1.35 PPG haul.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Utsikten are averaging 1.38 goals scored and 1.48 conceded per game recently; Landskrona BoIS are on 1.44 scored and 1.29 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Utsikten have seen both teams score in 63% of their recent games.
Last 52 Results — Superettan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Utsikten
Blended
Landskrona BoIS
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Utsikten and Landskrona BoIS in coming into this match?
Utsikten have gone 15W 17D 20L in their last 52 games (1.19 PPG), while Landskrona BoIS have gone 22W 13D 17L in their last 52 (1.52 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Utsikten at home or Landskrona BoIS away?
Utsikten's home record (1.58 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Utsikten at home: 1.58 PPG; Landskrona BoIS away: 1.35 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 8 times since May 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Superettan. They last met on 20 September 2025, roughly 11 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Utsikten won 5-1 on 12 Aug 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Utsikten have gone 3W 1D 0L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Landskrona BoIS — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
4
Utsikten
1
Draws
3
Landskrona BoIS
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Utsikten and Landskrona BoIS?
From 8 meetings on record, Utsikten have won 4, Landskrona BoIS have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Utsikten and Landskrona BoIS last play each other?
They last met on 20 September 2025, when Utsikten 4-0 Landskrona BoIS.
Who has won more matches between Utsikten and Landskrona BoIS?
Utsikten have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Utsikten are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Landskrona BoIS are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Utsikten 62%, Landskrona BoIS 58% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 58% (Utsikten) and 54% (Landskrona BoIS). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 38% and 23% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Landskrona BoIS in 27%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Utsikten home games / Landskrona BoIS away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Utsikten play Landskrona BoIS?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 62% of Utsikten's games and 58% of Landskrona BoIS's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Utsikten vs Landskrona BoIS usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 58% of Utsikten's matches and 54% of Landskrona BoIS's.
Do Utsikten and Landskrona BoIS tend to score early?
Utsikten have had a goal before half-time in 65% of their recent matches, Landskrona BoIS in 65% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Utsikten run riot with a 4-0 hammering of Landskrona BoIS.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Utsikten beat Landskrona BoIS 4-0 at Bravida Arena, Regular Season - 23, in the Superettan. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Utsikten 1.42 xG and Landskrona BoIS 1.22 xG, a combined 2.64. The scoreboard read 4-0 for 4 actual goals. Utsikten beat their projection by 2.6 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Landskrona BoIS landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Utsikten attack 1.13 / defence 1.16 against Landskrona BoIS attack 0.90 / defence 0.85, drawn from 52/52 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Utsikten 41% | Draw 27% | Landskrona BoIS 32%, with Utsikten to win its most likely call at 41%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. Over 3.5 was 27% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Utsikten 56%, Landskrona BoIS 54%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Utsikten's trading profile (52 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did not.
Landskrona BoIS's trading profile (52 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 25% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Utsikten 1.19 PPG, Landskrona BoIS 1.52 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Utsikten win broke the near-deadlock. Utsikten (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.77 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.31 average — tighter than their form line. Landskrona BoIS (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.35 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 1.31 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.