Umeå FC 0-2 Landskrona BoIS – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Landskrona BoIS at 55% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Umeå FC face Landskrona BoIS.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
Landskrona BoIS travel to Umea Energi Arena to take on Umeå FC in Superettan (matchday 6). The game is scheduled for Saturday 3 May 2025 at 15:00 UK time.
Form Analysis
Across their last 10 games, Landskrona BoIS have recorded 3W 2D 5L — 1.10 PPG. Last five: W L W D L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
Landskrona BoIS's away record over their last 10 away games: 4W 1D 5L (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Umeå FC 1.02 xG and Landskrona BoIS 1.79 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Umeå FC attack 0.721 / defence 1.159 | Landskrona BoIS attack 1.212 / defence 1.101. League average goals — home 1.291 / away 1.275. Umeå FC's attack rating of 0.721 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.02. Landskrona BoIS have an above-average attack rating of 1.212, which lifts their away xG to 1.79. Data: built from Umeå FC's last 5 games and Landskrona BoIS's last 35.
Result probabilities: Umeå FC 21% | Draw 23% | Landskrona BoIS 55%. Fair-value odds: Umeå FC 4.65 | Draw 4.32 | Landskrona BoIS 1.81. The model has a clear lean to Landskrona BoIS (55%) — a 32pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS Yes probability 53% | Total xG 2.82. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.82 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 53% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Landskrona BoIS as the most likely outcome at 55% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.82 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 53% probability — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Umeå FC vs Landskrona BoIS | Competition: Superettan, matchday 6 | Venue: Umea Energi Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 3 May 2025 at 15:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Umeå FC 21% | Draw 23% | Landskrona BoIS 55% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% (Under 47%) | BTTS Yes 53% (No 47%) | xG Umeå FC 1.02 / Landskrona BoIS 1.79 • Poisson strength factors: Umeå FC attack 0.721 / def 1.159 | Landskrona BoIS attack 1.212 / def 1.101 | league avg home 1.291 / away 1.275 • Poisson stance: Landskrona BoIS (55%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.02
Umeå FC xG
Expected Goals
1.79
Landskrona BoIS xG
53%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Umeå FC vs Landskrona BoIS FAQs
What time does Umeå FC vs Landskrona BoIS kick off?
Umeå FC vs Landskrona BoIS kicked off at 15:00 UK time on Saturday 3 May 2025 at Umea Energi Arena.
What was the final score in Umeå FC vs Landskrona BoIS?
Umeå FC 0 - 2 Landskrona BoIS.
Where is Umeå FC vs Landskrona BoIS being played?
The match is being played at Umea Energi Arena.
What competition is Umeå FC vs Landskrona BoIS part of?
Umeå FC vs Landskrona BoIS is a Superettan fixture (matchday 6) (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Umeå FC vs Landskrona BoIS?
Our statistical model gives Umeå FC a 21% chance of winning, Landskrona BoIS a 55% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Landskrona BoIS the favourite.
Will both teams score in Umeå FC vs Landskrona BoIS?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Umeå FC and Landskrona BoIS will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Umeå FC vs Landskrona BoIS have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Umeå FC's attacking strength (0.72x league average) is weighed against Landskrona BoIS's defensive record (1.10x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.02. The same calculation in reverse, Landskrona BoIS's attack versus Umeå FC's defence, projects 1.79 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Umeå FC's last 5 games and Landskrona BoIS's last 35 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.4%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.8%), 0-2 (9.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Landskrona BoIS Win
21%
4.65
23%
4.32
55%
1.81
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.0%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.7%
Away win
1 – 2
9.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.02
Umeå FC xG
Total xG
2.82
1.79
Landskrona BoIS xG
4.65
21%
Home win
4.32
23%
Draw
1.81
55%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.87
47%
BTTS No
2.15
Clean Sheet
17%
6.00
36%
2.79
Win to Nil
4%
27.90
20%
5.04
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.0 | 10.7 | 9.6 | 5.7 | 2.6 | 0.9 |
| 1 | 6.1 | 11.0 | 9.8 | 5.9 | 2.6 | 0.9 |
| 2 | 3.1 | 5.6 | 5.0 | 3.0 | 1.3 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 1.1 | 1.9 | 1.7 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Umeå FC vs Landskrona BoIS Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Umeå FC vs Landskrona BoIS?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.4%.
How many goals are Umeå FC and Landskrona BoIS expected to score?
The model projects 1.02 expected goals for Umeå FC and 1.79 for Landskrona BoIS, a combined total of 2.82.
How confident is the prediction model for Umeå FC vs Landskrona BoIS?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 55%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
Last 0 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Umeå FC
Pre-Season
Landskrona BoIS
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
Umeå FC (Home) vs Landskrona BoIS (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Umeå FC
Pre-Season
Landskrona BoIS
Pre-Season
No results found for this venue split.
No results found for this venue split.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 2 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 1 year from May 2025. All of them came in Superettan. The most recent was on 19 October 2025, roughly 12 months ago.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Umeå FC
0
Draws
1
Landskrona BoIS
Recent Meetings
❓ Umeå FC vs Landskrona BoIS H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Umeå FC and Landskrona BoIS?
Across the 2 head-to-head matches in our data, Umeå FC have won 1, Landskrona BoIS have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Umeå FC and Landskrona BoIS last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 19 October 2025: Landskrona BoIS 1-3 Umeå FC.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Umeå FC home games / Landskrona BoIS away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Landskrona BoIS cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Umeå FC.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Landskrona BoIS beat Umeå FC 0-2 at Umea Energi Arena, Regular Season - 6, in the Superettan. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Umeå FC 1.02 xG and Landskrona BoIS 1.79 xG, a combined 2.82. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Umeå FC fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Umeå FC attack 0.72 / defence 1.16 against Landskrona BoIS attack 1.21 / defence 1.10, drawn from 5/35 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Umeå FC 21% | Draw 23% | Landskrona BoIS 55%, with Landskrona BoIS to win its most likely call at 55%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.