GIF Sundsvall 2-2 Utsikten – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates GIF Sundsvall at 47% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this GIF Sundsvall vs Utsikten encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
Utsikten travel to NP3 Arena to take on GIF Sundsvall in Superettan (matchday 6). The game is scheduled for Saturday 3 May 2025 at 13:00 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, GIF Sundsvall stand at 6W 1D 3L — 1.90 PPG. Last five: D W W W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.10 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
GIF Sundsvall at home: 5W 2D 3L from their last 10 home games — 1.70 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Utsikten — last 10 games: 3W 4D 3L — 1.30 PPG. Last five: W D W L W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.40. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
On the road, Utsikten have gone 1W 3D 6L in their last 10 away fixtures (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.60 is notably below their overall 1.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
GIF Sundsvall are in the better shape of the two on recent form — 0.60 PPG ahead (1.90 vs 1.30). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
H2H Record
The H2H picture is flat: the 4 H2H matches we hold have produced 2 wins for GIF Sundsvall, 2 for Utsikten and 0 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here.
The 4 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 2 Aug 2024, ended GIF Sundsvall 1–0 Utsikten — a GIF Sundsvall win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
GIF Sundsvall in-play tendencies (last 62 games, 31 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 58% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; of the 11 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 46%; of the 27 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 30%; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (home games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
Utsikten in-play tendencies (last 62 games, 31 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 58% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; of the 18 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 28%; of the 14 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 36%; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 39% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — GIF Sundsvall 47% versus Utsikten 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (GIF Sundsvall 48% | Utsikten 50%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: GIF Sundsvall surrender their half-time lead 46% of the time, while Utsikten have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 36% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects GIF Sundsvall 1.52 xG and Utsikten 1.09 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: GIF Sundsvall attack 1.032 / defence 0.927 | Utsikten attack 0.952 / defence 1.125. League average goals — home 1.305 / away 1.240. Data: built from GIF Sundsvall's last 35 games and Utsikten's last 35.
Result probabilities: GIF Sundsvall 47% | Draw 26% | Utsikten 27%. Fair-value odds: GIF Sundsvall 2.13 | Draw 3.90 | Utsikten 3.65. GIF Sundsvall hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS Yes probability 52% | Total xG 2.61. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.61 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 52% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, GIF Sundsvall are the pick at 47% — moderate model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on GIF Sundsvall offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.61 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 52% probability — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 52%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: GIF Sundsvall 50% (last 10 home games) | Utsikten 60% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: GIF Sundsvall vs Utsikten | Competition: Superettan, matchday 6 | Venue: NP3 Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 3 May 2025 at 13:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: GIF Sundsvall 47% | Draw 26% | Utsikten 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% (Under 52%) | BTTS Yes 52% (No 48%) | xG GIF Sundsvall 1.52 / Utsikten 1.09 • Poisson strength factors: GIF Sundsvall attack 1.032 / def 0.927 | Utsikten attack 0.952 / def 1.125 | league avg home 1.305 / away 1.240 • Poisson stance: GIF Sundsvall (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.52
GIF Sundsvall xG
Expected Goals
1.09
Utsikten xG
52%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ GIF Sundsvall vs Utsikten FAQs
What time does GIF Sundsvall vs Utsikten kick off?
GIF Sundsvall vs Utsikten kicked off at 13:00 UK time on Saturday 3 May 2025 at NP3 Arena.
What was the final score in GIF Sundsvall vs Utsikten?
GIF Sundsvall 2 - 2 Utsikten.
Where is GIF Sundsvall vs Utsikten being played?
The match is being played at NP3 Arena.
What competition is GIF Sundsvall vs Utsikten part of?
GIF Sundsvall vs Utsikten is a Superettan fixture (matchday 6) (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win GIF Sundsvall vs Utsikten?
Our statistical model gives GIF Sundsvall a 47% chance of winning, Utsikten a 27% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making GIF Sundsvall the favourite.
Will both teams score in GIF Sundsvall vs Utsikten?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both GIF Sundsvall and Utsikten will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will GIF Sundsvall vs Utsikten have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (52%).
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates GIF Sundsvall's attack at 1.03x the league average against Utsikten's defence at 1.12x — combine the two and it projects 1.52 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Utsikten's attack versus GIF Sundsvall's defence, projects 1.09 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from GIF Sundsvall's last 35 games and Utsikten's last 35 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (9.6%), 2-1 (9.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
GIF Sundsvall Win
47%
2.13
26%
3.90
27%
3.65
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.1%
Home win
2 – 1
9.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.52
GIF Sundsvall xG
Total xG
2.61
1.09
Utsikten xG
2.13
47%
Home win
3.90
26%
Draw
3.65
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.93
48%
BTTS No
2.08
Clean Sheet
33%
2.99
22%
4.55
Win to Nil
16%
6.36
6%
16.63
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.4 | 8.0 | 4.4 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.1 | 12.2 | 6.7 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.5 | 9.2 | 5.1 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.3 | 4.7 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.6 | 1.8 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ GIF Sundsvall vs Utsikten Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for GIF Sundsvall vs Utsikten?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.8%.
How many goals are GIF Sundsvall and Utsikten expected to score?
The model projects 1.52 expected goals for GIF Sundsvall and 1.09 for Utsikten, a combined total of 2.61.
How confident is the prediction model for GIF Sundsvall vs Utsikten?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
GIF Sundsvall come into this having played 62 games, going 20W 15D 27L for 1.21 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-W-W-W.
On the other side, Utsikten sit at 1.56 PPG from 62 outings (27W 16D 19L), a run that reads W-D-W-L-W across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: GIF Sundsvall on 1.21 PPG, Utsikten on 1.56. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
GIF Sundsvall's home form reads 12W 9D 10L across their last 31 home games, a 1.45 PPG return.
Away from home, Utsikten have taken 1.26 points per game from their last 31 away games (10W 9D 12L).
The Goals Picture
GIF Sundsvall are averaging 1.13 goals scored and 1.53 conceded per game recently; Utsikten are on 1.44 scored and 1.23 conceded.
Last 62 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
GIF Sundsvall
Current Season
Utsikten
Current Season
GIF Sundsvall (Home) vs Utsikten (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
GIF Sundsvall
Current Season
Utsikten
Current Season
❓ GIF Sundsvall vs Utsikten Form FAQs
What form are GIF Sundsvall and Utsikten in coming into this match?
GIF Sundsvall have gone 20W 15D 27L in their last 62 games (1.21 PPG), while Utsikten have gone 27W 16D 19L in their last 62 (1.56 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — GIF Sundsvall at home or Utsikten away?
GIF Sundsvall's home record (1.45 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — GIF Sundsvall at home: 1.45 PPG; Utsikten away: 1.26 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 6 H2H matches in our data, going back to June 2023. All of them came in Superettan. The most recent in our data was on 2 August 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 10 Jun 2023, when Utsikten won Utsikten 5-0 GIF Sundsvall.
GIF Sundsvall's record when hosting Utsikten specifically: 2W 1D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
2
GIF Sundsvall
1
Draws
3
Utsikten
Recent Meetings
❓ GIF Sundsvall vs Utsikten H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between GIF Sundsvall and Utsikten?
Across the 6 head-to-head matches in our data, GIF Sundsvall have won 2, Utsikten have won 3, and 1 has been drawn.
When did GIF Sundsvall and Utsikten last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 2 August 2025: Utsikten 4-1 GIF Sundsvall.
Who has won more matches between GIF Sundsvall and Utsikten?
Utsikten have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 6 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
GIF Sundsvall see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 38% of those situations.
Utsikten see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — GIF Sundsvall 58%, Utsikten 48% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 55% (GIF Sundsvall) and 39% (Utsikten).
On the defensive side: GIF Sundsvall keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches; Utsikten in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = GIF Sundsvall home games / Utsikten away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ GIF Sundsvall vs Utsikten Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in GIF Sundsvall and Utsikten matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 58% of GIF Sundsvall's recent matches and 48% of Utsikten's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are GIF Sundsvall and Utsikten matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 55% of GIF Sundsvall's recent games and 39% of Utsikten's, pointing to a tighter contest.
GIF Sundsvall and Utsikten share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
GIF Sundsvall and Utsikten finished level at 2-2 at NP3 Arena, Regular Season - 6, in the Superettan. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting GIF Sundsvall 1.52 xG and Utsikten 1.09 xG, a combined 2.61. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Utsikten outscored their 1.09 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of GIF Sundsvall attack 1.03 / defence 0.93 against Utsikten attack 0.95 / defence 1.12, drawn from 35/35 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it GIF Sundsvall 47% | Draw 26% | Utsikten 27%, with GIF Sundsvall to win its most likely call at 47%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. Over 3.5 was 27% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (GIF Sundsvall 48%, Utsikten 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
GIF Sundsvall's trading profile (62 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did.
Utsikten's trading profile (62 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — GIF Sundsvall 1.21 PPG, Utsikten 1.56 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Utsikten (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.03 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.