Sandviken 0-3 Vasteras SK FK – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Sandviken at 53%, yet other data sources diverge — this Sandviken vs Vasteras SK FK fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Jernvallen plays host to Sandviken versus Vasteras SK FK in Superettan, Regular Season - 15. Kick-off: Saturday 19 July 2025 at 16:00 UTC.
Current Form
Sandviken's overall Superettan record this term: 5W 1D 4L from 10 games (1.60 PPG). Last five: L W W W W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Sandviken, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Sandviken's form when playing at home: 5W 2D 3L across 10 games at Jernvallen this term (1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Vasteras SK FK (all games): 4W 4D 2L across 10 Superettan outings this term — 1.60 points per game. Last five: W D L D W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.60. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Vasteras SK FK, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Superettan this season, Vasteras SK FK have posted 3W 1D 6L from 10 away outings — 1.00 PPG. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.00 is notably below their overall 1.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.60 vs 1.60 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Trading Data
Sandviken goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (44 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 41%.
Vasteras SK FK goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (44 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sandviken 54% versus Vasteras SK FK 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sandviken 64% | Vasteras SK FK 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sandviken 1.86 xG and Vasteras SK FK 1.18 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sandviken attack 1.060 / defence 0.898 | Vasteras SK FK attack 1.016 / defence 1.207. League average goals — home 1.451 / away 1.297. Vasteras SK FK bring a strong defensive rating of 1.207 — this is suppressing Sandviken's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 44 Sandviken games / 14 Vasteras SK FK games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sandviken 53% | Draw 23% | Vasteras SK FK 24%. Fair-value odds: Sandviken 1.89 | Draw 4.35 | Vasteras SK FK 4.17. Sandviken hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (23%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 59% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 3.04. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 59% — the 3.04 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Sandviken as the most likely outcome at 53% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 23% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Sandviken if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 3.04 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 59% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 59% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Sandviken 60% | Vasteras SK FK 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sandviken vs Vasteras SK FK | Competition: Superettan, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: Jernvallen • Kick-off: Saturday 19 Jul 2025, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sandviken 53% | Draw 23% | Vasteras SK FK 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 59% | BTTS 59% | xG Sandviken 1.86 / Vasteras SK FK 1.18 • Poisson strength factors: Sandviken attack 1.060 / def 0.898 | Vasteras SK FK attack 1.016 / def 1.207 | league avg home 1.451 / away 1.297 • Poisson stance: Sandviken (53%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.86
Sandviken xG
Expected Goals
1.18
Vasteras SK FK xG
59%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
59%
Over 2.5
36%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sandviken vs Vasteras SK FK kick off?
Sandviken vs Vasteras SK FK kicked off at 16:00 on Saturday 19 July 2025 at Jernvallen.
What was the final score in Sandviken vs Vasteras SK FK?
Sandviken 0 - 3 Vasteras SK FK.
Where is Sandviken vs Vasteras SK FK being played?
The match is being played at Jernvallen.
What competition is Sandviken vs Vasteras SK FK part of?
Sandviken vs Vasteras SK FK is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the Superettan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Sandviken vs Vasteras SK FK?
Our statistical model gives Sandviken a 53% chance of winning, Vasteras SK FK a 24% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Sandviken the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sandviken vs Vasteras SK FK?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both Sandviken and Vasteras SK FK will score (BTTS).
Will Sandviken vs Vasteras SK FK have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 59%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sandviken and Vasteras SK FK?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Sandviken and Vasteras SK FK in?
Sandviken (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-W-W-W-W. Vasteras SK FK (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-D-L-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Sandviken's attack at 1.06x the league average against Vasteras SK FK's defence at 1.21x — combine the two and it projects 1.86 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Vasteras SK FK's attack (1.02x) against Sandviken's defence (0.90x) — and the away total comes out at 1.18.
These ratings are built from 44/14 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.8%), 2-0 (8.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Sandviken Win
53%
1.88
23%
4.41
24%
4.13
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.5%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.8%
Home win
1 – 0
8.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.86
Sandviken xG
Total xG
3.04
1.18
Vasteras SK FK xG
1.88
53%
Home win
4.41
23%
Draw
4.13
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
59%
Over 2.5
1.69
41%
Under 2.5
2.44
36%
Over 3.5
2.78
64%
Under 3.5
1.56
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.71
41%
BTTS No
2.41
Clean Sheet
31%
3.27
16%
6.40
Win to Nil
16%
6.15
4%
26.45
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.8 | 5.7 | 3.3 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.9 | 10.5 | 6.2 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.2 | 9.8 | 5.8 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 5.1 | 6.0 | 3.6 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.4 | 2.8 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.9 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sandviken vs Vasteras SK FK?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.9%.
How many goals are Sandviken and Vasteras SK FK expected to score?
The model projects 1.86 expected goals for Sandviken and 1.18 for Vasteras SK FK, a combined total of 3.04.
How confident is the prediction model for Sandviken vs Vasteras SK FK?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 53%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Sandviken's recent record stands at 19W 9D 16L from 44 games, a 1.50 PPG return, with L-W-W-W-W in the last five. The sample for Sandviken is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Vasteras SK FK, meanwhile, have gone 12W 10D 22L across 44 games — 1.05 PPG, with W-D-L-D-W in their last five. The sample for Vasteras SK FK is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Sandviken by 0.45 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Vasteras SK FK heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Sandviken have managed 13W 3D 6L from 22 games — 1.91 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.50 PPG overall — Sandviken are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Vasteras SK FK's away record stands at 5W 3D 14L across 22 trips, a 0.82 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Sandviken come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Sandviken are averaging 1.52 goals scored and 1.36 conceded per game recently; Vasteras SK FK are on 1.07 scored and 1.41 conceded.
Last 44 Results — Superettan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sandviken
Blended
Vasteras SK FK
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sandviken and Vasteras SK FK in coming into this match?
Sandviken have gone 19W 9D 16L in their last 44 games (1.50 PPG), while Vasteras SK FK have gone 12W 10D 22L in their last 44 (1.05 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sandviken at home or Vasteras SK FK away?
Sandviken's home record (1.91 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sandviken at home: 1.91 PPG; Vasteras SK FK away: 0.82 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 2 times since July 2025 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Superettan. They last met on 28 September 2025, roughly 11 months ago.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Sandviken
0
Draws
2
Vasteras SK FK
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sandviken and Vasteras SK FK?
From 2 meetings on record, Sandviken have won 0, Vasteras SK FK have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Sandviken and Vasteras SK FK last play each other?
They last met on 28 September 2025, when Vasteras SK FK 3-0 Sandviken.
Who has won more matches between Sandviken and Vasteras SK FK?
Vasteras SK FK have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Sandviken are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 46% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Vasteras SK FK are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sandviken 50%, Vasteras SK FK 41% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 59% (Sandviken) and 50% (Vasteras SK FK).
On the defensive side: Sandviken keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches; Vasteras SK FK in 46%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sandviken home games / Vasteras SK FK away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sandviken play Vasteras SK FK?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Sandviken's recent matches and 41% of Vasteras SK FK's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Sandviken vs Vasteras SK FK usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 59% of Sandviken's recent games and 50% of Vasteras SK FK's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Sandviken and Vasteras SK FK tend to score early?
Sandviken have had a goal before half-time in 82% of their recent matches, Vasteras SK FK in 68% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Vasteras SK FK run riot with a 0-3 hammering of Sandviken.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Vasteras SK FK beat Sandviken 0-3 at Jernvallen, Regular Season - 15, in the Superettan. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sandviken 1.86 xG and Vasteras SK FK 1.18 xG, a combined 3.04. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. Sandviken fell 1.9 short of their projected output. Vasteras SK FK outscored their 1.18 projection by 1.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sandviken attack 1.06 / defence 0.90 against Vasteras SK FK attack 1.02 / defence 1.21, drawn from 44/14 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sandviken 53% | Draw 23% | Vasteras SK FK 24%, with Sandviken to win its most likely call at 53%. Instead the game produced a Vasteras SK FK win, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sandviken 64%, Vasteras SK FK 48%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sandviken's trading profile (44 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 25% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Vasteras SK FK's trading profile (44 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Sandviken arrived the stronger side — 1.50 PPG against 1.05. Form was overturned, with Vasteras SK FK winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Sandviken (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.82 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 0.91 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Vasteras SK FK (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.55 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.