Sandviken 1-1 Orgryte IS – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Orgryte IS at 58% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Sandviken vs Orgryte IS encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Sandviken host Orgryte IS at Jernvallen in Superettan, Regular Season - 26. Kick-off is scheduled for Monday 6 October 2025 at 18:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Superettan games this season, Sandviken have gone 2W 1D 7L from 10 outings — a 0.70 PPG return. Last five: W W L L L. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 2.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.20 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. This season is still relatively young for Sandviken, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Sandviken have posted 4W 0D 6L at Jernvallen — 1.20 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.20 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.70 — Sandviken are significantly better at Jernvallen than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Orgryte IS stand at 8W 2D 0L from 10 Superettan matches — 2.60 PPG. Last five: W W W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.30 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.60 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Orgryte IS, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Orgryte IS away from home this season: 7W 2D 1L from 10 away games — 2.30 PPG on the road. They are averaging 2.00 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Orgryte IS — 1.90 PPG ahead of the hosts (2.60 vs 0.70). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 5 previous encounters have yielded 2 wins for Sandviken, 3 for Orgryte IS and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 5 meetings have averaged 4.2 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 21 May 2025, ended 0–4 with Orgryte IS winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.2 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Sandviken in-play and half-time data (55 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 85% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%; they fail to score in 33% of games.
Orgryte IS in-play and half-time data (55 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 58% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sandviken 51% versus Orgryte IS 64%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sandviken 64% | Orgryte IS 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sandviken 0.94 xG and Orgryte IS 1.83 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sandviken attack 0.791 / defence 1.184 | Orgryte IS attack 1.319 / defence 0.757. League average goals — home 1.566 / away 1.173. Sandviken's attack strength of 0.791 is below the league average — the 0.94 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Orgryte IS's defence strength of 0.757 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Orgryte IS have an above-average attack strength of 1.319 — the away xG of 1.83 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 55 Sandviken games / 55 Orgryte IS games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sandviken 19% | Draw 23% | Orgryte IS 58%. Fair-value odds: Sandviken 5.26 | Draw 4.35 | Orgryte IS 1.72. The model has a clear lean to Orgryte IS (58%) — a 39pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.77. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.77 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Orgryte IS at 58% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.77 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 52% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game and H2H averaging 4.2 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 51%. Form rates corroborate: Sandviken 50% | Orgryte IS 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sandviken vs Orgryte IS | Competition: Superettan, Regular Season - 26 | Venue: Jernvallen • Kick-off: Monday 6 Oct 2025, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sandviken 19% | Draw 23% | Orgryte IS 58% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 51% | xG Sandviken 0.94 / Orgryte IS 1.83 • Poisson strength factors: Sandviken attack 0.791 / def 1.184 | Orgryte IS attack 1.319 / def 0.757 | league avg home 1.566 / away 1.173 • Poisson stance: Orgryte IS (58%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.94
Sandviken xG
Expected Goals
1.83
Orgryte IS xG
51%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sandviken vs Orgryte IS kick off?
Sandviken vs Orgryte IS kicked off at 18:00 on Monday 6 October 2025 at Jernvallen.
What was the final score in Sandviken vs Orgryte IS?
Sandviken 1 - 1 Orgryte IS.
Where is Sandviken vs Orgryte IS being played?
The match is being played at Jernvallen.
What competition is Sandviken vs Orgryte IS part of?
Sandviken vs Orgryte IS is a Regular Season - 26 fixture in the Superettan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Sandviken vs Orgryte IS?
Our statistical model gives Sandviken a 19% chance of winning, Orgryte IS a 58% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Orgryte IS the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sandviken vs Orgryte IS?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Sandviken and Orgryte IS will score (BTTS).
Will Sandviken vs Orgryte IS have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sandviken and Orgryte IS?
Record (5 meetings): Sandviken 2W | Draws 0 | Orgryte IS 3W.
What form are Sandviken and Orgryte IS in?
Sandviken (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 2.20 | L5 W-W-L-L-L. Orgryte IS (all comps): 8W-2D-0L in 10 | 2.60 PPG | GF 2.30 / GA 0.60 | L5 W-W-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Sandviken's attack at 0.79x the league average against Orgryte IS's defence at 0.76x — combine the two and it projects 0.94 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Orgryte IS's attack versus Sandviken's defence, projects 1.83 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 55/55 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-2 (10.5%), 0-1 (10.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Orgryte IS Win
19%
5.31
23%
4.37
58%
1.72
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
11.5%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
10.8%
Draw
0 – 2
10.5%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.94
Sandviken xG
Total xG
2.77
1.83
Orgryte IS xG
5.31
19%
Home win
4.37
23%
Draw
1.72
58%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.95
49%
BTTS No
2.05
Clean Sheet
16%
6.25
39%
2.55
Win to Nil
3%
33.14
23%
4.38
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.3 | 11.5 | 10.5 | 6.4 | 2.9 | 1.1 |
| 1 | 5.9 | 10.8 | 9.9 | 6.0 | 2.8 | 1.0 |
| 2 | 2.8 | 5.1 | 4.6 | 2.8 | 1.3 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 0.9 | 1.6 | 1.4 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sandviken vs Orgryte IS?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.2%.
How many goals are Sandviken and Orgryte IS expected to score?
The model projects 0.94 expected goals for Sandviken and 1.83 for Orgryte IS, a combined total of 2.77.
How confident is the prediction model for Sandviken vs Orgryte IS?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 58%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Sandviken come into this having played 55 games, going 21W 10D 24L for 1.33 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-L-L-L. The sample for Sandviken is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Orgryte IS sit at 1.78 PPG from 55 outings (28W 14D 13L), a run that reads W-W-W-W-W across their last five. The sample for Orgryte IS is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Orgryte IS carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.45 PPG clear of Sandviken — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Sandviken's home form reads 14W 3D 10L across 27 games on their own ground, a 1.67 PPG return.
Away from home, Orgryte IS have taken 1.63 points per game from 27 outings (12W 8D 7L).
The Goals Picture
Sandviken are averaging 1.35 goals scored and 1.55 conceded per game recently; Orgryte IS are on 1.91 scored and 1.22 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Orgryte IS in 64%.
Last 55 Results — Superettan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sandviken
Blended
Orgryte IS
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sandviken and Orgryte IS in coming into this match?
Sandviken have gone 21W 10D 24L in their last 55 games (1.33 PPG), while Orgryte IS have gone 28W 14D 13L in their last 55 (1.78 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sandviken at home or Orgryte IS away?
Sandviken's home record (1.67 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sandviken at home: 1.67 PPG; Orgryte IS away: 1.63 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Sandviken and Orgryte IS runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Superettan. They last met on 6 October 2025, roughly 11 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 21 May 2025, when Orgryte IS won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Sandviken's record when hosting Orgryte IS specifically: 1W 1D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Sandviken
1
Draws
3
Orgryte IS
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sandviken and Orgryte IS?
From 6 meetings on record, Sandviken have won 2, Orgryte IS have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Sandviken and Orgryte IS last play each other?
They last met on 6 October 2025, when Sandviken 1-1 Orgryte IS.
Who has won more matches between Sandviken and Orgryte IS?
Orgryte IS have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Sandviken are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 85% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 41% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Orgryte IS are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sandviken 48%, Orgryte IS 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 59% (Sandviken) and 48% (Orgryte IS).
On the defensive side: Sandviken have failed to score in 30% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sandviken home games / Orgryte IS away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sandviken play Orgryte IS?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 48% of Sandviken's games and 67% of Orgryte IS's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Sandviken vs Orgryte IS usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 59% of Sandviken's recent games and 48% of Orgryte IS's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Sandviken and Orgryte IS tend to score early?
Sandviken have had a goal before half-time in 85% of their recent matches, Orgryte IS in 74% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Sandviken and Orgryte IS share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Jernvallen, Regular Season - 26, as Sandviken and Orgryte IS drew 1-1 in the Superettan. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sandviken 0.94 xG and Orgryte IS 1.83 xG, a combined 2.77. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Orgryte IS landed 0.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sandviken attack 0.79 / defence 1.18 against Orgryte IS attack 1.32 / defence 0.76, drawn from 55/55 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sandviken 19% | Draw 23% | Orgryte IS 58%, with Orgryte IS to win its most likely call at 58%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sandviken 64%, Orgryte IS 60%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sandviken's trading profile (55 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did.
Orgryte IS's trading profile (55 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Orgryte IS arrived the stronger side — 1.78 PPG against 1.33. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.