Sandviken 1-2 GIF Sundsvall – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Sandviken at 55% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Sandviken face GIF Sundsvall.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Sandviken and GIF Sundsvall meet at Arena Jernvallen in Superettan (matchday 29). This fixture gets under way on Saturday 2 November 2024 at 14:00 UK time.
Form & Momentum
Sandviken have collected 1.50 PPG across their last 10 games: 4W 3D 3L. Last five: L W W L D. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 1.40 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Sandviken's form when playing at home: 6W 2D 2L across their last 10 home games (2.00 PPG). They are averaging 2.30 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 2.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.50 — Sandviken are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
GIF Sundsvall's record over their last 10 games: 3W 3D 4L (1.20 PPG). Last five: L W L L D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
GIF Sundsvall away from home: 2W 3D 5L from their last 10 away games — 0.90 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.50 vs 1.20 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Head-to-Head
The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 1 H2H match in our data, the wins are level at 0 apiece, with 1 draw. Neither side has a commanding advantage. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 1 H2H match in our data have been tight, averaging just 0.0 goals per game — a meaningful input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent of those, on 22 May 2024, ended Sandviken 0–0 GIF Sundsvall — a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 0.0 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.
Trading
Sandviken half-time and goal-timing data (last 28 games, 14 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 86% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; of the 10 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 60%; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 50%.
GIF Sundsvall half-time and goal-timing data (last 28 games, 14 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 86% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 29% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (away games); they fail to score in 43% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sandviken 54% versus GIF Sundsvall 43%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sandviken 64% | GIF Sundsvall 43%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sandviken 1.77 xG and GIF Sundsvall 0.96 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sandviken attack 1.221 / defence 1.015 | GIF Sundsvall attack 0.815 / defence 1.024. League average goals — home 1.414 / away 1.157. Data: built from Sandviken's last 28 games and GIF Sundsvall's last 58.
Result probabilities: Sandviken 55% | Draw 26% | GIF Sundsvall 19%. Fair-value odds: Sandviken 1.81 | Draw 3.90 | GIF Sundsvall 5.24. The model has a clear lean to Sandviken (55%) — a 29pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS Yes probability 52% | Total xG 2.73. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.73 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 52% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Sandviken as the most likely outcome at 55% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 26% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.73 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 51% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Sandviken's last 10 home games and GIF Sundsvall's last 10 away games) averaging 2.9 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 52% on Yes. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Sandviken 50% (last 10 home games) | GIF Sundsvall 40% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sandviken vs GIF Sundsvall | Competition: Superettan, matchday 29 | Venue: Arena Jernvallen • Kick-off: Saturday 2 November 2024 at 14:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sandviken 55% | Draw 26% | GIF Sundsvall 19% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% (Under 49%) | BTTS Yes 52% (No 48%) | xG Sandviken 1.77 / GIF Sundsvall 0.96 • Poisson strength factors: Sandviken attack 1.221 / def 1.015 | GIF Sundsvall attack 0.815 / def 1.024 | league avg home 1.414 / away 1.157 • Poisson stance: Sandviken (55%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.77
Sandviken xG
Expected Goals
0.96
GIF Sundsvall xG
52%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Sandviken vs GIF Sundsvall FAQs
What time does Sandviken vs GIF Sundsvall kick off?
Sandviken vs GIF Sundsvall kicked off at 14:00 UK time on Saturday 2 November 2024 at Arena Jernvallen.
What was the final score in Sandviken vs GIF Sundsvall?
Sandviken 1 - 2 GIF Sundsvall.
Where is Sandviken vs GIF Sundsvall being played?
The match is being played at Arena Jernvallen.
What competition is Sandviken vs GIF Sundsvall part of?
Sandviken vs GIF Sundsvall is a Superettan fixture (matchday 29) (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Sandviken vs GIF Sundsvall?
Our statistical model gives Sandviken a 55% chance of winning, GIF Sundsvall a 19% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Sandviken the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sandviken vs GIF Sundsvall?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Sandviken and GIF Sundsvall will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Sandviken vs GIF Sundsvall have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Sandviken's attack rating (1.22) and GIF Sundsvall's defence rating (1.02), the model arrives at 1.77 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — GIF Sundsvall's attack (0.81x) against Sandviken's defence (1.01x) — and the away total comes out at 0.96.
These ratings are built from Sandviken's last 28 games and GIF Sundsvall's last 58 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.5%. Close behind: 2-0 (10.2%), 1-0 (10.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sandviken Win
55%
1.81
26%
3.90
19%
5.24
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
11.6%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.1%
Draw
2 – 0
10.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.77
Sandviken xG
Total xG
2.73
0.96
GIF Sundsvall xG
1.81
55%
Home win
3.90
26%
Draw
5.24
19%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.91
48%
BTTS No
2.10
Clean Sheet
38%
2.61
17%
5.86
Win to Nil
21%
4.71
3%
30.76
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.5 | 6.3 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 11.6 | 11.1 | 5.3 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.2 | 9.8 | 4.7 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.0 | 5.8 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.7 | 2.6 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Sandviken vs GIF Sundsvall Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Sandviken vs GIF Sundsvall?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.5%.
How many goals are Sandviken and GIF Sundsvall expected to score?
The model projects 1.77 expected goals for Sandviken and 0.96 for GIF Sundsvall, a combined total of 2.73.
How confident is the prediction model for Sandviken vs GIF Sundsvall?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 55%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Sandviken's recent record stands at 12W 7D 9L from 28 games, a 1.54 PPG return, with L-W-W-L-D in the last five.
GIF Sundsvall, meanwhile, have gone 7W 7D 14L across 28 games — 1.00 PPG, with L-W-L-L-D in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Sandviken by 0.54 — a real, if not enormous, edge over GIF Sundsvall heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Sandviken have managed 9W 2D 3L from their last 14 home games — 2.07 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.54 PPG overall — Sandviken are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
GIF Sundsvall's away record stands at 2W 3D 9L across their last 14 away games, a 0.64 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Sandviken come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Sandviken are averaging 1.68 goals scored and 1.32 conceded per game recently; GIF Sundsvall are on 0.86 scored and 1.39 conceded.
Last 28 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sandviken
Current Season
GIF Sundsvall
Current Season
Sandviken (Home) vs GIF Sundsvall (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Sandviken
Current Season
GIF Sundsvall
Current Season
❓ Sandviken vs GIF Sundsvall Form FAQs
What form are Sandviken and GIF Sundsvall in coming into this match?
Sandviken have gone 12W 7D 9L in their last 28 games (1.54 PPG), while GIF Sundsvall have gone 7W 7D 14L in their last 28 (1.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sandviken at home or GIF Sundsvall away?
Sandviken's home record (2.07 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sandviken at home: 2.07 PPG; GIF Sundsvall away: 0.64 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 6 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to May 2024 — enough to show some patterns. All of them came in Superettan. The most recent was on 1 August 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Sandviken have won each of the latest 2 H2H matches we hold, a run that gives them the edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Sandviken won Sandviken 5-0 GIF Sundsvall on 1 Aug 2026, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Sandviken have gone 1W 0D 2L from the 3 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against GIF Sundsvall — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Sandviken
1
Draws
3
GIF Sundsvall
Recent Meetings
❓ Sandviken vs GIF Sundsvall H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Sandviken and GIF Sundsvall?
Across the 6 head-to-head matches in our data, Sandviken have won 2, GIF Sundsvall have won 3, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Sandviken and GIF Sundsvall last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 1 August 2026: Sandviken 5-0 GIF Sundsvall.
Who has won more matches between Sandviken and GIF Sundsvall?
GIF Sundsvall have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 6 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Sandviken are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 75% of those situations.
GIF Sundsvall are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 18% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sandviken 50%, GIF Sundsvall 29% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 64% (Sandviken) and 36% (GIF Sundsvall).
On the defensive side: Sandviken keep a clean sheet in 36% of their matches; GIF Sundsvall in 64%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sandviken home games / GIF Sundsvall away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Sandviken vs GIF Sundsvall Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Sandviken and GIF Sundsvall matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Sandviken's recent matches and 29% of GIF Sundsvall's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Sandviken and GIF Sundsvall matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 64% of Sandviken's recent games and 36% of GIF Sundsvall's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Sandviken and GIF Sundsvall matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 86% of Sandviken's recent matches and 86% of GIF Sundsvall's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as GIF Sundsvall defy the odds to beat Sandviken 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
GIF Sundsvall beat Sandviken 1-2 at Arena Jernvallen, Regular Season - 29, in the Superettan. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sandviken 1.77 xG and GIF Sundsvall 0.96 xG, a combined 2.73. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. GIF Sundsvall outscored their 0.96 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sandviken attack 1.22 / defence 1.01 against GIF Sundsvall attack 0.81 / defence 1.02, drawn from 28/58 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sandviken 55% | Draw 26% | GIF Sundsvall 19%, with Sandviken to win its most likely call at 55%. Instead the game produced a GIF Sundsvall win, an outcome the model had rated at just 19% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sandviken 64%, GIF Sundsvall 43%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sandviken's trading profile (28 games, 14 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
GIF Sundsvall's trading profile (28 games, 14 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Sandviken arrived the stronger side — 1.54 PPG against 1.00. Form was overturned, with GIF Sundsvall winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Sandviken (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.07 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 0.86 concession average — a leakier day than usual. GIF Sundsvall (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.57 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.