Landskrona BoIS 1-1 Degerfors IF – Result & Analysis

Poisson rates Degerfors IF at 36% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Landskrona BoIS vs Degerfors IF encounter.

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Full Analysis

Landskrona Idrottsplats plays host to Landskrona BoIS versus Degerfors IF in Superettan, Regular Season - 29. Kick-off: Saturday 2 November 2024 at 12:00 UTC.

Current Form

Landskrona BoIS's overall Superettan record this term: 3W 1D 6L from 10 games (1.00 PPG). Last five: L L W L W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.

Landskrona BoIS at Landskrona Idrottsplats this season: 5W 2D 3L from 10 home games — 1.70 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 1.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.00 — Landskrona BoIS are significantly better at Landskrona Idrottsplats than their overall form suggests.

Degerfors IF have collected 2.30 PPG across 10 Superettan outings this season: 7W 2D 1L. Last five: W W W L D. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 0.50. Defensively, 0.50 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not.

Degerfors IF's form when playing away from home: 6W 3D 1L across 10 road games this term (2.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.

On a straight form reading, Degerfors IF are the stronger side — 1.30 PPG clear of the hosts (2.30 vs 1.00). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.

Head-to-Head

Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 1 meetings: Landskrona BoIS 1W, Degerfors IF 0W, 0D.

These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 4.0 per game across 1 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 4 May 2024, ended 3–1 with Landskrona BoIS winning.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.

Trading

Landskrona BoIS half-time and goal-timing data (58 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (home games).

Degerfors IF half-time and goal-timing data (58 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 87% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Landskrona BoIS 55% versus Degerfors IF 62%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Landskrona BoIS 59% | Degerfors IF 55%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Landskrona BoIS 1.13 xG and Degerfors IF 1.18 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Landskrona BoIS attack 1.103 / defence 0.974 | Degerfors IF attack 1.034 / defence 0.728. League average goals — home 1.412 / away 1.170. Degerfors IF's defence strength of 0.728 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 58 Landskrona BoIS games / 28 Degerfors IF games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Landskrona BoIS 34% | Draw 31% | Degerfors IF 36%. Fair-value odds: Landskrona BoIS 2.94 | Draw 3.23 | Degerfors IF 2.78. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.31. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.31 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Picks & Verdict

On the Poisson output, Degerfors IF are the pick at 36% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Degerfors IF if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

Poisson projects 2.31 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 41% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 48% on No. Form rates corroborate: Landskrona BoIS 40% | Degerfors IF 50% BTTS from recent games.

The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.

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