Ostersunds FK 2-0 Landskrona BoIS – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Landskrona BoIS at 49%, yet other data sources diverge — this Ostersunds FK vs Landskrona BoIS fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Landskrona BoIS make the trip to Jamtkraft Arena to face Ostersunds FK in Superettan, Regular Season - 15. The match kicks off on Saturday 18 July 2026 at 13:00 UTC.
Current Form
Ostersunds FK's overall Superettan record this term: 5W 3D 2L from 10 games (1.80 PPG). Last five: W D D L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.40 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Ostersunds FK, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Ostersunds FK's home record at Jamtkraft Arena: 6W 2D 2L from 10 Superettan appearances (2.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Landskrona BoIS have collected 1.90 PPG across 10 Superettan outings this season: 5W 4D 1L. Last five: D W W W W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.00. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Landskrona BoIS, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Superettan this season, Landskrona BoIS have posted 5W 1D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.60 PPG. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.80 vs 1.90 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Ostersunds FK have seen both teams score in 70% of their games, Landskrona BoIS in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Ostersunds FK lead 4W to 2W over the last 8 encounters, with 2 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.8 per game across 8 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 9 Aug 2025, ended 0–2 with Landskrona BoIS winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.8 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Ostersunds FK — key trading statistics (44 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%; they fail to score in 34% of games.
Landskrona BoIS — key trading statistics (44 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Ostersunds FK 52% versus Landskrona BoIS 59%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Ostersunds FK 50% | Landskrona BoIS 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Ostersunds FK 1.30 xG and Landskrona BoIS 1.81 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ostersunds FK attack 1.080 / defence 1.124 | Landskrona BoIS attack 1.103 / defence 0.844. League average goals — home 1.428 / away 1.459. Data: 44 Ostersunds FK games / 44 Landskrona BoIS games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Ostersunds FK 28% | Draw 23% | Landskrona BoIS 49%. Fair-value odds: Ostersunds FK 3.57 | Draw 4.35 | Landskrona BoIS 2.04. Landskrona BoIS hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (23%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 60% | BTTS probability 61% | Total xG 3.11. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 60% — the 3.11 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 61% reflects that both xG figures (1.30 / 1.81) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Landskrona BoIS are the pick at 49% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 23% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Landskrona BoIS if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.11 combined xG gives a 60% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.8 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 61%. Form rates corroborate: Ostersunds FK 70% | Landskrona BoIS 60% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Ostersunds FK vs Landskrona BoIS | Competition: Superettan, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: Jamtkraft Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 18 Jul 2026, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Ostersunds FK 28% | Draw 23% | Landskrona BoIS 49% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 60% | BTTS 61% | xG Ostersunds FK 1.30 / Landskrona BoIS 1.81 • Poisson strength factors: Ostersunds FK attack 1.080 / def 1.124 | Landskrona BoIS attack 1.103 / def 0.844 | league avg home 1.428 / away 1.459 • Poisson stance: Landskrona BoIS (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.30
Ostersunds FK xG
Expected Goals
1.81
Landskrona BoIS xG
61%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
60%
Over 2.5
38%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Ostersunds FK vs Landskrona BoIS kick off?
Ostersunds FK vs Landskrona BoIS kicked off at 13:00 on Saturday 18 July 2026 at Jamtkraft Arena.
What was the final score in Ostersunds FK vs Landskrona BoIS?
Ostersunds FK 2 - 0 Landskrona BoIS.
Where is Ostersunds FK vs Landskrona BoIS being played?
The match is being played at Jamtkraft Arena.
What competition is Ostersunds FK vs Landskrona BoIS part of?
Ostersunds FK vs Landskrona BoIS is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the Superettan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Ostersunds FK vs Landskrona BoIS?
Our statistical model gives Ostersunds FK a 28% chance of winning, Landskrona BoIS a 49% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Landskrona BoIS the favourite.
Will both teams score in Ostersunds FK vs Landskrona BoIS?
Our model estimates a 61% probability that both Ostersunds FK and Landskrona BoIS will score (BTTS).
Will Ostersunds FK vs Landskrona BoIS have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 60%.
What is the head-to-head record between Ostersunds FK and Landskrona BoIS?
Record (8 meetings): Ostersunds FK 4W | Draws 2 | Landskrona BoIS 2W.
What form are Ostersunds FK and Landskrona BoIS in?
Ostersunds FK (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-D-D-L-W. Landskrona BoIS (all comps): 5W-4D-1L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-W-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Ostersunds FK's attack at 1.08x the league average against Landskrona BoIS's defence at 0.84x — combine the two and it projects 1.30 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Landskrona BoIS's attack (1.10x) against Ostersunds FK's defence (1.12x) — and the away total comes out at 1.81.
These ratings are built from 44/44 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (9.5%), 0-2 (7.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Landskrona BoIS Win
28%
3.62
23%
4.35
49%
2.03
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.5%
Away win
0 – 1
8.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.30
Ostersunds FK xG
Total xG
3.11
1.81
Landskrona BoIS xG
3.62
28%
Home win
4.35
23%
Draw
2.03
49%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
60%
Over 2.5
1.67
40%
Under 2.5
2.50
38%
Over 3.5
2.63
62%
Under 3.5
1.61
20%
Over 4.5
5.00
80%
Under 4.5
1.25
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
61%
BTTS Yes
1.64
39%
BTTS No
2.56
Clean Sheet
16%
6.10
27%
3.68
Win to Nil
5%
22.08
13%
7.46
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.5 | 8.1 | 7.3 | 4.4 | 2.0 | 0.7 |
| 1 | 5.8 | 10.5 | 9.5 | 5.7 | 2.6 | 0.9 |
| 2 | 3.8 | 6.8 | 6.2 | 3.7 | 1.7 | 0.6 |
| 3 | 1.6 | 3.0 | 2.7 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 1.0 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Ostersunds FK vs Landskrona BoIS?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.9%.
How many goals are Ostersunds FK and Landskrona BoIS expected to score?
The model projects 1.30 expected goals for Ostersunds FK and 1.81 for Landskrona BoIS, a combined total of 3.11.
How confident is the prediction model for Ostersunds FK vs Landskrona BoIS?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Ostersunds FK's recent record stands at 15W 13D 16L from 44 games, a 1.32 PPG return, with W-D-D-L-W in the last five. The sample for Ostersunds FK is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Landskrona BoIS, meanwhile, have gone 18W 12D 14L across 44 games — 1.50 PPG, with D-W-W-W-W in their last five. The sample for Landskrona BoIS is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.32 PPG for Ostersunds FK against 1.50 for Landskrona BoIS. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Ostersunds FK have managed 10W 6D 5L from 21 games — 1.71 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Landskrona BoIS's away record stands at 9W 3D 9L across 21 trips, a 1.43 PPG haul.
Attack vs Defence
Ostersunds FK are averaging 1.25 goals scored and 1.59 conceded per game recently; Landskrona BoIS are on 1.39 scored and 1.39 conceded.
Last 44 Results — Superettan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Ostersunds FK
Blended
Landskrona BoIS
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Ostersunds FK and Landskrona BoIS in coming into this match?
Ostersunds FK have gone 15W 13D 16L in their last 44 games (1.32 PPG), while Landskrona BoIS have gone 18W 12D 14L in their last 44 (1.50 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Ostersunds FK at home or Landskrona BoIS away?
Ostersunds FK's home record (1.71 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Ostersunds FK at home: 1.71 PPG; Landskrona BoIS away: 1.43 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to July 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Superettan. The two were last together as recently as 29 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Ostersunds FK won 4-1 on 15 Jul 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Ostersunds FK have gone 4W 1D 0L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Landskrona BoIS — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Ostersunds FK
3
Draws
2
Landskrona BoIS
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Ostersunds FK and Landskrona BoIS?
From 10 meetings on record, Ostersunds FK have won 5, Landskrona BoIS have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Ostersunds FK and Landskrona BoIS last play each other?
They last met on 29 August 2026, when Landskrona BoIS 1-1 Ostersunds FK.
Who has won more matches between Ostersunds FK and Landskrona BoIS?
Ostersunds FK have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Ostersunds FK are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Landskrona BoIS are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Ostersunds FK 71%, Landskrona BoIS 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 71% for Ostersunds FK and 52% for Landskrona BoIS. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 52% and 29% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Landskrona BoIS in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Ostersunds FK home games / Landskrona BoIS away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Ostersunds FK play Landskrona BoIS?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 71% of Ostersunds FK's games and 52% of Landskrona BoIS's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Ostersunds FK vs Landskrona BoIS usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 71% of Ostersunds FK's matches and 52% of Landskrona BoIS's.
Do Ostersunds FK and Landskrona BoIS tend to score early?
Ostersunds FK have had a goal before half-time in 81% of their recent matches, Landskrona BoIS in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Ostersunds FK cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Landskrona BoIS.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Ostersunds FK beat Landskrona BoIS 2-0 at Jamtkraft Arena, Regular Season - 15, in the Superettan. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Ostersunds FK 1.30 xG and Landskrona BoIS 1.81 xG, a combined 3.11. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Landskrona BoIS landed 1.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ostersunds FK attack 1.08 / defence 1.12 against Landskrona BoIS attack 1.10 / defence 0.84, drawn from 44/44 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Ostersunds FK 28% | Draw 23% | Landskrona BoIS 49%, with Landskrona BoIS to win its most likely call at 49%. The actual Ostersunds FK win had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 60%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ostersunds FK 50%, Landskrona BoIS 57%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Ostersunds FK's trading profile (44 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not.
Landskrona BoIS's trading profile (44 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Ostersunds FK 1.32 PPG, Landskrona BoIS 1.50 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Ostersunds FK win broke the near-deadlock. Ostersunds FK (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.62 average — tighter than their form line. Landskrona BoIS (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.29 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.