Osters IF 3-0 Oddevold – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Osters IF at 49%, yet other data sources diverge — this Osters IF vs Oddevold fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Visma Arena plays host to Osters IF versus Oddevold in Superettan, Regular Season - 7. Kick-off: Friday 10 May 2024 at 18:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Osters IF have collected 1.80 PPG across 10 Superettan outings this season: 5W 3D 2L. Last five: W L W W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.00 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Osters IF's form when playing at home: 6W 2D 2L across 10 games at Visma Arena this term (2.00 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Visma Arena.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Osters IF 1.22 xG and Oddevold 0.67 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Osters IF attack 0.968 / defence 0.804 | Oddevold attack 0.925 / defence 1.010. League average goals — home 1.250 / away 0.905. Data: 36 Osters IF games / 6 Oddevold games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Osters IF 49% | Draw 31% | Oddevold 20%. Fair-value odds: Osters IF 2.04 | Draw 3.23 | Oddevold 5.00. Osters IF hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (31%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 29% | BTTS probability 35% | Total xG 1.90. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 71% probability — total xG of 1.90 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 65% — Oddevold's lower xG of 0.67 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 35%.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Osters IF at 49% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Osters IF if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 1.90 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 29% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Osters IF vs Oddevold | Competition: Superettan, Regular Season - 7 | Venue: Visma Arena • Kick-off: Friday 10 May 2024, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Osters IF 49% | Draw 31% | Oddevold 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 29% | BTTS 35% | xG Osters IF 1.22 / Oddevold 0.67 • Poisson strength factors: Osters IF attack 0.968 / def 0.804 | Oddevold attack 0.925 / def 1.010 | league avg home 1.250 / away 0.905 • Poisson stance: Osters IF (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.22
Osters IF xG
Expected Goals
0.67
Oddevold xG
35%
BTTS
57%
Over 1.5
29%
Over 2.5
12%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Osters IF vs Oddevold kick off?
Osters IF vs Oddevold kicked off at 18:00 on Friday 10 May 2024 at Visma Arena.
What was the final score in Osters IF vs Oddevold?
Osters IF 3 - 0 Oddevold.
Where is Osters IF vs Oddevold being played?
The match is being played at Visma Arena.
What competition is Osters IF vs Oddevold part of?
Osters IF vs Oddevold is a Regular Season - 7 fixture in the Superettan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Osters IF vs Oddevold?
Our statistical model gives Osters IF a 49% chance of winning, Oddevold a 20% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Osters IF the favourite.
Will both teams score in Osters IF vs Oddevold?
Our model estimates a 35% probability that both Osters IF and Oddevold will score (BTTS).
Will Osters IF vs Oddevold have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 29%.
What is the head-to-head record between Osters IF and Oddevold?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Osters IF and Oddevold in?
Osters IF (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-L-W-W-W. Osters IF home split: 2.00 PPG from 10 | GF 2.00 / GA 0.70 | CS 5.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Osters IF's attack rating (0.97) and Oddevold's defence rating (1.01), the model arrives at 1.22 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Oddevold's attack (0.93x) against Osters IF's defence (0.80x) — and the away total comes out at 0.67.
These ratings are built from 36/6 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 16.8%. Close behind: 0-0 (16.6%), 1-1 (14.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 47% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Osters IF Win
49%
2.04
31%
3.25
20%
4.97
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
18.4%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
15.0%
Draw
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.22
Osters IF xG
Total xG
1.90
0.67
Oddevold xG
2.04
49%
Home win
3.25
31%
Draw
4.97
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
56%
Over 1.5
1.79
44%
Under 1.5
2.27
29%
Over 2.5
3.45
71%
Under 2.5
1.41
12%
Over 3.5
8.33
88%
Under 3.5
1.14
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
35%
BTTS Yes
2.87
65%
BTTS No
1.54
Clean Sheet
51%
1.96
29%
3.39
Win to Nil
25%
3.99
6%
16.87
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 15.0 | 10.1 | 3.4 | 0.8 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 18.4 | 12.4 | 4.2 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 11.2 | 7.6 | 2.5 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 4.6 | 3.1 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 4 | 1.4 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Osters IF vs Oddevold?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 16.8%.
How many goals are Osters IF and Oddevold expected to score?
The model projects 1.22 expected goals for Osters IF and 0.67 for Oddevold, a combined total of 1.90.
How confident is the prediction model for Osters IF vs Oddevold?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — Superettan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Osters IF
Pre-Season
Oddevold
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 3 times that we have on record, stretching back to May 2024 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Superettan. They last met on 20 April 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Osters IF won 3-0 on 10 May 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Last 3 Meetings
2
Osters IF
1
Draws
0
Oddevold
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Osters IF and Oddevold?
From 3 meetings on record, Osters IF have won 2, Oddevold have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Osters IF and Oddevold last play each other?
They last met on 20 April 2026, when Oddevold 1-2 Osters IF.
Who has won more matches between Osters IF and Oddevold?
Osters IF have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 3 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Osters IF home games / Oddevold away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Dominant Osters IF run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Oddevold.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Osters IF beat Oddevold 3-0 at Visma Arena, Regular Season - 7, in the Superettan. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Osters IF 1.22 xG and Oddevold 0.67 xG, a combined 1.90. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Osters IF beat their projection by 1.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Osters IF attack 0.97 / defence 0.80 against Oddevold attack 0.93 / defence 1.01, drawn from 36/6 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Osters IF 49% | Draw 31% | Oddevold 20%, with Osters IF to win its most likely call at 49%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 29%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 57% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 35% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.