Orgryte IS 2-1 Ostersunds FK – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Orgryte IS at 65% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Orgryte IS vs Ostersunds FK encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Gamla Ullevi plays host to Orgryte IS versus Ostersunds FK in Superettan, Regular Season - 29. Kick-off: Monday 4 November 2024 at 18:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Orgryte IS have collected 1.50 PPG across 10 Superettan outings this season: 4W 3D 3L. Last five: D D L W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.50 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Orgryte IS's form when playing at home: 6W 2D 2L across 10 games at Gamla Ullevi this term (2.00 PPG). They are averaging 2.40 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.50 — Orgryte IS are significantly better at Gamla Ullevi than their overall form suggests.
Ostersunds FK's overall Superettan record this term: 2W 2D 6L from 10 games (0.80 PPG). Last five: D L L W L. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
Ostersunds FK away from home this season: 1W 2D 7L from 10 away games — 0.50 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Form favours the hosts. Orgryte IS's 1.50 PPG return is 0.70 points per game ahead of Ostersunds FK's 0.80 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Orgryte IS have seen both teams score in 80% of their games, Ostersunds FK in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 5 meetings: Orgryte IS 0W, Ostersunds FK 2W, 3D.
The 5 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 20 Apr 2024, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Orgryte IS — key trading statistics (58 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 69% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 69% of games (home games).
Ostersunds FK — key trading statistics (58 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 59% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Orgryte IS 60% and Ostersunds FK 60% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Orgryte IS 55% | Ostersunds FK 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Orgryte IS 2.40 xG and Ostersunds FK 1.14 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Orgryte IS attack 1.372 / defence 1.243 | Ostersunds FK attack 0.778 / defence 1.233. League average goals — home 1.417 / away 1.178. Orgryte IS carry an above-average attack strength of 1.372 — their λ of 2.40 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Ostersunds FK bring a strong defensive rating of 1.233 — this is suppressing Orgryte IS's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 58 Orgryte IS games / 58 Ostersunds FK games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Orgryte IS 65% | Draw 19% | Ostersunds FK 16%. Fair-value odds: Orgryte IS 1.54 | Draw 5.26 | Ostersunds FK 6.25. The model has a clear lean to Orgryte IS (65%) — a 49pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 69% | BTTS probability 62% | Total xG 3.54. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 69% — a total xG of 3.54 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 62% reflects that both xG figures (2.40 / 1.14) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
Ostersunds FK lead the H2H ledger, but Orgryte IS carry stronger current form — do not let history alone dictate your assessment.
On the Poisson output, Orgryte IS are the pick at 65% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 19% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 3.54 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 69% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.4 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 62% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Orgryte IS 80% | Ostersunds FK 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Orgryte IS vs Ostersunds FK | Competition: Superettan, Regular Season - 29 | Venue: Gamla Ullevi • Kick-off: Monday 4 Nov 2024, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Orgryte IS 65% | Draw 19% | Ostersunds FK 16% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 69% | BTTS 62% | xG Orgryte IS 2.40 / Ostersunds FK 1.14 • Poisson strength factors: Orgryte IS attack 1.372 / def 1.243 | Ostersunds FK attack 0.778 / def 1.233 | league avg home 1.417 / away 1.178 • Poisson stance: Orgryte IS (65%) — strong lean
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
2.40
Orgryte IS xG
Expected Goals
1.14
Ostersunds FK xG
62%
BTTS
87%
Over 1.5
69%
Over 2.5
47%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Orgryte IS vs Ostersunds FK kick off?
Orgryte IS vs Ostersunds FK kicked off at 18:00 on Monday 4 November 2024 at Gamla Ullevi.
What was the final score in Orgryte IS vs Ostersunds FK?
Orgryte IS 2 - 1 Ostersunds FK.
Where is Orgryte IS vs Ostersunds FK being played?
The match is being played at Gamla Ullevi.
What competition is Orgryte IS vs Ostersunds FK part of?
Orgryte IS vs Ostersunds FK is a Regular Season - 29 fixture in the Superettan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Orgryte IS vs Ostersunds FK?
Our statistical model gives Orgryte IS a 65% chance of winning, Ostersunds FK a 16% chance, and a 19% chance of a draw — making Orgryte IS the favourite.
Will both teams score in Orgryte IS vs Ostersunds FK?
Our model estimates a 62% probability that both Orgryte IS and Ostersunds FK will score (BTTS).
Will Orgryte IS vs Ostersunds FK have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 69%.
What is the head-to-head record between Orgryte IS and Ostersunds FK?
Record (5 meetings): Orgryte IS 0W | Draws 3 | Ostersunds FK 2W.
What form are Orgryte IS and Ostersunds FK in?
Orgryte IS (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-D-L-W-D. Ostersunds FK (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-L-L-W-L.
What do the betting odds say about Orgryte IS vs Ostersunds FK?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Orgryte IS's attack rating (1.37) and Ostersunds FK's defence rating (1.23), the model arrives at 2.40 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Ostersunds FK's attack (0.78x) against Orgryte IS's defence (1.24x) — and the away total comes out at 1.14.
These ratings are built from 58/58 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 2-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 9.5%. Close behind: 1-1 (9.0%), 2-0 (8.4%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Orgryte IS Win
65%
1.55
19%
5.14
16%
6.27
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.5%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
8.4%
Home win
1 – 1
7.9%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.40
Orgryte IS xG
Total xG
3.54
1.14
Ostersunds FK xG
1.55
65%
Home win
5.14
19%
Draw
6.27
16%
Away win
Goals Markets
87%
Over 1.5
1.15
13%
Under 1.5
7.69
69%
Over 2.5
1.45
31%
Under 2.5
3.23
47%
Over 3.5
2.13
53%
Under 3.5
1.89
28%
Over 4.5
3.57
72%
Under 4.5
1.39
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
62%
BTTS Yes
1.60
38%
BTTS No
2.66
Clean Sheet
32%
3.12
9%
11.00
Win to Nil
21%
4.83
1%
68.97
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.9 | 3.3 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 7.0 | 7.9 | 4.5 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.4 | 9.5 | 5.4 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.7 | 7.6 | 4.3 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 4.0 | 4.6 | 2.6 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.9 | 2.2 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Orgryte IS vs Ostersunds FK?
Our Poisson model rates 2-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.5%.
How many goals are Orgryte IS and Ostersunds FK expected to score?
The model projects 2.40 expected goals for Orgryte IS and 1.14 for Ostersunds FK, a combined total of 3.54.
How confident is the prediction model for Orgryte IS vs Ostersunds FK?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 65%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 58 outings, Orgryte IS have picked up 1.28 PPG on a 20W 14D 24L record — D-D-L-W-D across the most recent five.
Ostersunds FK's form line: 18W 19D 21L from 58 games, 1.26 PPG, last five D-L-L-W-L.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.28 PPG for Orgryte IS against 1.26 for Ostersunds FK. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Orgryte IS have posted 1.31 PPG from 29 outings (10W 8D 11L).
On the road, Ostersunds FK have gone 5W 9D 15L from 29 away games — 0.83 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.26 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Ostersunds FK's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Orgryte IS come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Orgryte IS are averaging 1.36 goals scored and 1.48 conceded per game recently; Ostersunds FK are on 1.24 scored and 1.38 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Orgryte IS have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games; Ostersunds FK in 60%.
Last 58 Results — Superettan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Orgryte IS
Current Season
Ostersunds FK
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Orgryte IS and Ostersunds FK in coming into this match?
Orgryte IS have gone 20W 14D 24L in their last 58 games (1.28 PPG), while Ostersunds FK have gone 18W 19D 21L in their last 58 (1.26 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Orgryte IS at home or Ostersunds FK away?
Orgryte IS's home record (1.31 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Orgryte IS at home: 1.31 PPG; Ostersunds FK away: 0.83 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 8 times since May 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Superettan. They last met on 27 July 2025, roughly 12 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Orgryte IS won 6-0 on 27 Jul 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Orgryte IS have gone 2W 1D 1L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Ostersunds FK — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
2
Orgryte IS
3
Draws
3
Ostersunds FK
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Orgryte IS and Ostersunds FK?
From 8 meetings on record, Orgryte IS have won 2, Ostersunds FK have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Orgryte IS and Ostersunds FK last play each other?
They last met on 27 July 2025, when Orgryte IS 6-0 Ostersunds FK.
Who has won more matches between Orgryte IS and Ostersunds FK?
Ostersunds FK have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Orgryte IS are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 45% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 24% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Ostersunds FK see a goal before the break in 59% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 21% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Orgryte IS 69%, Ostersunds FK 48% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 69% (Orgryte IS) and 41% (Ostersunds FK). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 41% and 24% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Ostersunds FK in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Orgryte IS home games / Ostersunds FK away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Orgryte IS play Ostersunds FK?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 69% of Orgryte IS's games and 48% of Ostersunds FK's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Orgryte IS vs Ostersunds FK usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 69% of Orgryte IS's matches and 41% of Ostersunds FK's.
Do Orgryte IS and Ostersunds FK tend to score early?
Orgryte IS have had a goal before half-time in 86% of their recent matches, Ostersunds FK in 59% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Orgryte IS edge out Ostersunds FK 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Orgryte IS beat Ostersunds FK 2-1 at Gamla Ullevi, Regular Season - 29, in the Superettan. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Orgryte IS 2.40 xG and Ostersunds FK 1.14 xG, a combined 3.54. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Orgryte IS attack 1.37 / defence 1.24 against Ostersunds FK attack 0.78 / defence 1.23, drawn from 58/58 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Orgryte IS 65% | Draw 19% | Ostersunds FK 16%, with Orgryte IS to win its most likely call at 65%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 69%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 87% and landed. Over 3.5 was 47% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Orgryte IS 55%, Ostersunds FK 48%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Orgryte IS's trading profile (58 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Ostersunds FK's trading profile (58 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Orgryte IS 1.28 PPG, Ostersunds FK 1.26 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Orgryte IS win broke the near-deadlock.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.