Oddevold 3-2 Varbergs BoIS FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Varbergs BoIS FC at 57% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Oddevold vs Varbergs BoIS FC encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Oddevold host Varbergs BoIS FC at Rimnersvallen in Superettan (matchday 22). Kick-off is Saturday 14 September 2024 at 13:00 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, Oddevold stand at 2W 3D 5L — 0.90 PPG. Last five: D D W L L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 2.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.30 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Oddevold's form when playing at home: 3W 4D 3L across their last 10 home games (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Varbergs BoIS FC — last 10 games: 5W 2D 3L — 1.70 PPG. Last five: L W W W D. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 1.20. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
When travelling, Varbergs BoIS FC have posted 3W 2D 5L from their last 10 away outings — 1.10 PPG. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.10 is notably below their overall 1.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Varbergs BoIS FC — 0.80 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.70 vs 0.90). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Both teams have scored in 60% of Oddevold's games and 60% of Varbergs BoIS FC's (from Oddevold's last 10 home games and Varbergs BoIS FC's last 10 away games) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H Record
The H2H picture is flat: the 1 H2H match we hold have produced 0 wins for Oddevold, 1 for Varbergs BoIS FC and 0 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture — the 1 H2H match in our data averaged 3.0 per game, which gives Over 2.5 a solid head-to-head foundation. The most recent of those, on 23 May 2024, ended Oddevold 1–2 Varbergs BoIS FC — a Varbergs BoIS FC win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Oddevold trading profile (last 21 games, 10 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 70% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; of the 5 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 40%; of the 10 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 30%; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
Varbergs BoIS FC trading profile (last 21 games, 10 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 60% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; of the 8 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 25%; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Oddevold 62% and Varbergs BoIS FC 62% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Oddevold 71% | Varbergs BoIS FC 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Oddevold 1.05 xG and Varbergs BoIS FC 1.90 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Oddevold attack 0.787 / defence 1.299 | Varbergs BoIS FC attack 1.204 / defence 0.961. League average goals — home 1.392 / away 1.213. Oddevold's attack rating of 0.787 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.05. Varbergs BoIS FC have an above-average attack rating of 1.204, which lifts their away xG to 1.90. Oddevold's defence rating of 1.299 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Varbergs BoIS FC's projected output up. Data: built from Oddevold's last 21 games and Varbergs BoIS FC's last 21.
Result probabilities: Oddevold 20% | Draw 23% | Varbergs BoIS FC 57%. Fair-value odds: Oddevold 4.95 | Draw 4.32 | Varbergs BoIS FC 1.77. The model has a clear lean to Varbergs BoIS FC (57%) — a 34pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS Yes probability 56% | Total xG 2.95. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.95 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 56% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Varbergs BoIS FC as the most likely outcome at 57% — clear model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.95 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 57% probability — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 56%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Oddevold 60% (last 10 home games) | Varbergs BoIS FC 60% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Oddevold vs Varbergs BoIS FC | Competition: Superettan, matchday 22 | Venue: Rimnersvallen • Kick-off: Saturday 14 September 2024 at 13:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Oddevold 20% | Draw 23% | Varbergs BoIS FC 57% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 57% (Under 43%) | BTTS Yes 56% (No 44%) | xG Oddevold 1.05 / Varbergs BoIS FC 1.90 • Poisson strength factors: Oddevold attack 0.787 / def 1.299 | Varbergs BoIS FC attack 1.204 / def 0.961 | league avg home 1.392 / away 1.213 • Poisson stance: Varbergs BoIS FC (57%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.05
Oddevold xG
Expected Goals
1.90
Varbergs BoIS FC xG
56%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
57%
Over 2.5
34%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Oddevold vs Varbergs BoIS FC FAQs
What time does Oddevold vs Varbergs BoIS FC kick off?
Oddevold vs Varbergs BoIS FC kicked off at 13:00 UK time on Saturday 14 September 2024 at Rimnersvallen.
What was the final score in Oddevold vs Varbergs BoIS FC?
Oddevold 3 - 2 Varbergs BoIS FC.
Where is Oddevold vs Varbergs BoIS FC being played?
The match is being played at Rimnersvallen.
What competition is Oddevold vs Varbergs BoIS FC part of?
Oddevold vs Varbergs BoIS FC is a Superettan fixture (matchday 22) (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Oddevold vs Varbergs BoIS FC?
Our statistical model gives Oddevold a 20% chance of winning, Varbergs BoIS FC a 57% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Varbergs BoIS FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Oddevold vs Varbergs BoIS FC?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Oddevold and Varbergs BoIS FC will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Oddevold vs Varbergs BoIS FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 57%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Oddevold's attack at 0.79x the league average against Varbergs BoIS FC's defence at 0.96x — combine the two and it projects 1.05 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Varbergs BoIS FC's attack versus Oddevold's defence, projects 1.90 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Oddevold's last 21 games and Varbergs BoIS FC's last 21 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (9.9%), 0-2 (9.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Varbergs BoIS FC Win
20%
4.95
23%
4.32
57%
1.77
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.4%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
9.9%
Away win
1 – 2
9.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.05
Oddevold xG
Total xG
2.95
1.90
Varbergs BoIS FC xG
4.95
20%
Home win
4.32
23%
Draw
1.77
57%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
57%
Over 2.5
1.75
43%
Under 2.5
2.33
34%
Over 3.5
2.94
66%
Under 3.5
1.52
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.79
44%
BTTS No
2.26
Clean Sheet
15%
6.68
35%
2.87
Win to Nil
3%
33.05
20%
5.06
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.2 | 9.9 | 9.4 | 6.0 | 2.8 | 1.1 |
| 1 | 5.5 | 10.4 | 9.9 | 6.3 | 3.0 | 1.1 |
| 2 | 2.9 | 5.5 | 5.2 | 3.3 | 1.6 | 0.6 |
| 3 | 1.0 | 1.9 | 1.8 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Oddevold vs Varbergs BoIS FC Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Oddevold vs Varbergs BoIS FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.8%.
How many goals are Oddevold and Varbergs BoIS FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.05 expected goals for Oddevold and 1.90 for Varbergs BoIS FC, a combined total of 2.95.
How confident is the prediction model for Oddevold vs Varbergs BoIS FC?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 57%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 21 outings, Oddevold have picked up 1.05 PPG on a 5W 7D 9L record — D-D-W-L-L across the most recent five.
Varbergs BoIS FC's form line: 7W 5D 9L from 21 games, 1.24 PPG, last five L-W-W-W-D.
Form-wise this is close to level: Oddevold on 1.05 PPG, Varbergs BoIS FC on 1.24. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Oddevold have posted 1.30 PPG from their last 10 home games (3W 4D 3L).
On the road, Varbergs BoIS FC have gone 3W 2D 5L from their last 10 away games — 1.10 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
Oddevold are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.76 conceded per game recently; Varbergs BoIS FC are on 1.48 scored and 1.43 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Oddevold have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games; Varbergs BoIS FC in 62%.
Last 21 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Oddevold
Blended
Varbergs BoIS FC
Blended
Oddevold (Home) vs Varbergs BoIS FC (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Oddevold
Blended
Varbergs BoIS FC
Blended
❓ Oddevold vs Varbergs BoIS FC Form FAQs
What form are Oddevold and Varbergs BoIS FC in coming into this match?
Oddevold have gone 5W 7D 9L in their last 21 games (1.05 PPG), while Varbergs BoIS FC have gone 7W 5D 9L in their last 21 (1.24 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Oddevold at home or Varbergs BoIS FC away?
Oddevold's home record (1.30 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Oddevold at home: 1.30 PPG; Varbergs BoIS FC away: 1.10 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 6 H2H matches in our data, going back to May 2024. All of them came in Superettan. The most recent was as recently as 30 August 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Digging Into the Numbers
Varbergs BoIS FC have won the most recent 2 H2H matches in our data — the current momentum in this pairing sits with them.
Oddevold's record when hosting Varbergs BoIS FC specifically: 2W 0D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Oddevold
1
Draws
3
Varbergs BoIS FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Oddevold vs Varbergs BoIS FC H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Oddevold and Varbergs BoIS FC?
Across the 6 head-to-head matches in our data, Oddevold have won 2, Varbergs BoIS FC have won 3, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Oddevold and Varbergs BoIS FC last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 30 August 2026: Varbergs BoIS FC 3-1 Oddevold.
Who has won more matches between Oddevold and Varbergs BoIS FC?
Varbergs BoIS FC have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 6 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Oddevold are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Varbergs BoIS FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Oddevold 60%, Varbergs BoIS FC 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 60% (Oddevold) and 50% (Varbergs BoIS FC). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 10% and 40% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Oddevold have failed to score in 30% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Oddevold home games / Varbergs BoIS FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Oddevold vs Varbergs BoIS FC Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Oddevold and Varbergs BoIS FC matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 60% of Oddevold's games and 60% of Varbergs BoIS FC's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Oddevold and Varbergs BoIS FC matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 60% of Oddevold's matches and 50% of Varbergs BoIS FC's.
Do Oddevold and Varbergs BoIS FC matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 70% of Oddevold's recent matches and 60% of Varbergs BoIS FC's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Oddevold defy the odds to beat Varbergs BoIS FC 3-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Oddevold beat Varbergs BoIS FC 3-2 at Rimnersvallen, Regular Season - 22, in the Superettan. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Oddevold 1.05 xG and Varbergs BoIS FC 1.90 xG, a combined 2.95. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. Oddevold beat their projection by 1.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Oddevold attack 0.79 / defence 1.30 against Varbergs BoIS FC attack 1.20 / defence 0.96, drawn from 21/21 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Oddevold 20% | Draw 23% | Varbergs BoIS FC 57%, with Varbergs BoIS FC to win its most likely call at 57%. Instead the game produced a Oddevold win, an outcome the model had rated at just 20% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. Over 3.5 was 34% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 64% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Oddevold 71%, Varbergs BoIS FC 57%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Oddevold's trading profile (21 games, 10 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
Varbergs BoIS FC's trading profile (21 games, 10 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Oddevold 1.05 PPG, Varbergs BoIS FC 1.24 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Oddevold win broke the near-deadlock. Oddevold (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm. Varbergs BoIS FC (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.30 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.