Oddevold 3-1 Helsingborg – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Oddevold at 42%, yet other data sources diverge — this Oddevold vs Helsingborg fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Oddevold host Helsingborg at Rimnersvallen in Superettan, Regular Season - 20. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 23 August 2026 at 11:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Oddevold — All Games: 2W 5D 3L from 10 Superettan outings this season, averaging 1.10 points per game. Last five: L D D W D. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for Oddevold, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Oddevold's form when playing at home: 2W 4D 4L across 10 games at Rimnersvallen this term (1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across all Superettan games this season, Helsingborg have recorded 3W 2D 5L from 10 outings — 1.10 PPG. Last five: W D L L D. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Helsingborg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Superettan this season, Helsingborg have posted 4W 2D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.40 PPG. They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.10 PPG (Oddevold) versus 1.10 (Helsingborg). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 5 previous meetings, Oddevold have won 1, Helsingborg 2, with 2 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 5 meetings have averaged 2.8 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 13 May 2026, ended 2–2 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 2.8 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Oddevold in-play tendencies (49 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 59% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
Helsingborg in-play tendencies (49 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 64% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 39%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Oddevold 59% versus Helsingborg 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Oddevold 53% | Helsingborg 55%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Oddevold 1.63 xG and Helsingborg 1.41 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Oddevold attack 0.914 / defence 1.026 | Helsingborg attack 1.015 / defence 1.252. League average goals — home 1.424 / away 1.352. Helsingborg bring a strong defensive rating of 1.252 — this is suppressing Oddevold's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 49 Oddevold games / 49 Helsingborg games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Oddevold 42% | Draw 25% | Helsingborg 33%. Fair-value odds: Oddevold 2.38 | Draw 4.00 | Helsingborg 3.03. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 59% | BTTS probability 61% | Total xG 3.04. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 59% — the 3.04 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 61% reflects that both xG figures (1.63 / 1.41) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Oddevold are the pick at 42% — marginal model lean. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Oddevold offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.04 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 59% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 3.4 goals per game and H2H averaging 2.8 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 61% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Oddevold 70% | Helsingborg 80% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Oddevold vs Helsingborg | Competition: Superettan, Regular Season - 20 | Venue: Rimnersvallen • Kick-off: Sunday 23 Aug 2026, 11:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Oddevold 42% | Draw 25% | Helsingborg 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 59% | BTTS 61% | xG Oddevold 1.63 / Helsingborg 1.41 • Poisson strength factors: Oddevold attack 0.914 / def 1.026 | Helsingborg attack 1.015 / def 1.252 | league avg home 1.424 / away 1.352 • Poisson stance: Oddevold (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.63
Oddevold xG
Expected Goals
1.41
Helsingborg xG
61%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
59%
Over 2.5
36%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Oddevold vs Helsingborg kick off?
Oddevold vs Helsingborg kicked off at 11:00 on Sunday 23 August 2026 at Rimnersvallen.
What was the final score in Oddevold vs Helsingborg?
Oddevold 3 - 1 Helsingborg.
Where is Oddevold vs Helsingborg being played?
The match is being played at Rimnersvallen.
What competition is Oddevold vs Helsingborg part of?
Oddevold vs Helsingborg is a Regular Season - 20 fixture in the Superettan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Oddevold vs Helsingborg?
Our statistical model gives Oddevold a 42% chance of winning, Helsingborg a 33% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Oddevold the favourite.
Will both teams score in Oddevold vs Helsingborg?
Our model estimates a 61% probability that both Oddevold and Helsingborg will score (BTTS).
Will Oddevold vs Helsingborg have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 59%.
What is the head-to-head record between Oddevold and Helsingborg?
Record (5 meetings): Oddevold 1W | Draws 2 | Helsingborg 2W.
What form are Oddevold and Helsingborg in?
Oddevold (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-D-D-W-D. Helsingborg (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.90 | L5 W-D-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Oddevold's attack rating (0.91) and Helsingborg's defence rating (1.25), the model arrives at 1.63 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Helsingborg's attack versus Oddevold's defence, projects 1.41 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 49/49 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.4%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.0%), 1-2 (7.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Oddevold Win
42%
2.37
25%
3.99
33%
3.06
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.0%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.0%
Home win
1 – 0
7.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.63
Oddevold xG
Total xG
3.04
1.41
Helsingborg xG
2.37
42%
Home win
3.99
25%
Draw
3.06
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
59%
Over 2.5
1.69
41%
Under 2.5
2.44
36%
Over 3.5
2.78
64%
Under 3.5
1.56
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
61%
BTTS Yes
1.63
39%
BTTS No
2.58
Clean Sheet
24%
4.09
20%
5.10
Win to Nil
10%
9.68
6%
15.61
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.8 | 6.8 | 4.8 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 7.8 | 11.0 | 7.8 | 3.6 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.4 | 9.0 | 6.3 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.5 | 4.9 | 3.4 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.4 | 2.0 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Oddevold vs Helsingborg?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.4%.
How many goals are Oddevold and Helsingborg expected to score?
The model projects 1.63 expected goals for Oddevold and 1.41 for Helsingborg, a combined total of 3.04.
How confident is the prediction model for Oddevold vs Helsingborg?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 49 outings, Oddevold have picked up 1.51 PPG on a 19W 17D 13L record — L-D-D-W-D across the most recent five. The sample for Oddevold is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Helsingborg's form line: 18W 12D 19L from 49 games, 1.35 PPG, last five W-D-L-L-D. The sample for Helsingborg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Oddevold on 1.51 PPG, Helsingborg on 1.35. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Oddevold have posted 1.29 PPG from 24 outings (8W 7D 9L).
On the road, Helsingborg have gone 8W 6D 10L from 24 away games — 1.25 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
Oddevold are averaging 1.47 goals scored and 1.29 conceded per game recently; Helsingborg are on 1.51 scored and 1.55 conceded.
Defensively: Oddevold have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 49 Results — Superettan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Oddevold
Blended
Helsingborg
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Oddevold and Helsingborg in coming into this match?
Oddevold have gone 19W 17D 13L in their last 49 games (1.51 PPG), while Helsingborg have gone 18W 12D 19L in their last 49 (1.35 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Oddevold at home or Helsingborg away?
Oddevold's home record (1.29 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Oddevold at home: 1.29 PPG; Helsingborg away: 1.25 PPG.
Have Oddevold or Helsingborg been keeping clean sheets recently?
Oddevold have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their recent games, Helsingborg in 24%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Oddevold and Helsingborg runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to July 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Superettan. The two were last together as recently as 23 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 20 Jul 2024, when Helsingborg won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Oddevold's record when hosting Helsingborg specifically: 1W 0D 2L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Oddevold
2
Draws
2
Helsingborg
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Oddevold and Helsingborg?
From 6 meetings on record, Oddevold have won 2, Helsingborg have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Oddevold and Helsingborg last play each other?
They last met on 23 August 2026, when Oddevold 3-1 Helsingborg.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Oddevold are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Helsingborg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Oddevold 67%, Helsingborg 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 62% (Oddevold) and 54% (Helsingborg). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 38% and 46% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Helsingborg in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Oddevold home games / Helsingborg away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Oddevold play Helsingborg?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of Oddevold's games and 54% of Helsingborg's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Oddevold vs Helsingborg usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 62% of Oddevold's matches and 54% of Helsingborg's.
Do Oddevold and Helsingborg tend to score early?
Oddevold have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Helsingborg in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Oddevold cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Helsingborg.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Oddevold beat Helsingborg 3-1 at Rimnersvallen, Regular Season - 20, in the Superettan. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Oddevold 1.63 xG and Helsingborg 1.41 xG, a combined 3.04. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Oddevold beat their projection by 1.4 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Oddevold attack 0.91 / defence 1.03 against Helsingborg attack 1.01 / defence 1.25, drawn from 49/49 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Oddevold 42% | Draw 25% | Helsingborg 33%, with Oddevold to win its most likely call at 42%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. Over 3.5 was 36% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Oddevold 53%, Helsingborg 55%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Oddevold's trading profile (49 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and conceded here.
Helsingborg's trading profile (49 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Oddevold 1.51 PPG, Helsingborg 1.35 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Oddevold win broke the near-deadlock. Oddevold (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.38 average — above their attacking norm. Helsingborg (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.75 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.