Landskrona BoIS 1-0 Sandviken – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Landskrona BoIS at 53%, yet other data sources diverge — this Landskrona BoIS vs Sandviken fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Landskrona BoIS host Sandviken at Landskrona Idrottsplats in Superettan, Regular Season - 5. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 26 April 2025 at 14:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Superettan games this season, Landskrona BoIS have gone 3W 2D 5L from 10 outings — a 1.10 PPG return. Last five: W L W D L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
At home at Landskrona Idrottsplats, Landskrona BoIS have gone 4W 3D 3L this season (10 games, 1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Sandviken stand at 2W 3D 5L from 10 Superettan matches — 0.90 PPG. Last five: W L D L L. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.80. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play.
Sandviken's away record: 3W 2D 5L from 10 road trips in Superettan this season (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.10 PPG (Landskrona BoIS) versus 0.90 (Sandviken). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 2 previous meetings, Landskrona BoIS have won 1, Sandviken 1, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 2 meetings have averaged 3.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 18 Aug 2024, ended 0–2 with Sandviken winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Landskrona BoIS trading profile (30 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 56% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
Sandviken trading profile (30 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 47%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Landskrona BoIS 50% versus Sandviken 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Landskrona BoIS 53% | Sandviken 67%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Landskrona BoIS 2.00 xG and Sandviken 1.31 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Landskrona BoIS attack 1.165 / defence 1.072 | Sandviken attack 1.096 / defence 1.269. League average goals — home 1.351 / away 1.119. Sandviken bring a strong defensive rating of 1.269 — this is suppressing Landskrona BoIS's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 34 Landskrona BoIS games / 34 Sandviken games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Landskrona BoIS 53% | Draw 22% | Sandviken 25%. Fair-value odds: Landskrona BoIS 1.89 | Draw 4.55 | Sandviken 4.00. Landskrona BoIS hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (22%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 64% | BTTS probability 63% | Total xG 3.31. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 64% — the 3.31 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 63% reflects that both xG figures (2.00 / 1.31) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Landskrona BoIS at 53% — moderate model lean. With a 22% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Landskrona BoIS offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 3.31 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 64% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 63% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Landskrona BoIS 50% | Sandviken 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Landskrona BoIS vs Sandviken | Competition: Superettan, Regular Season - 5 | Venue: Landskrona Idrottsplats • Kick-off: Saturday 26 Apr 2025, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Landskrona BoIS 53% | Draw 22% | Sandviken 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 64% | BTTS 63% | xG Landskrona BoIS 2.00 / Sandviken 1.31 • Poisson strength factors: Landskrona BoIS attack 1.165 / def 1.072 | Sandviken attack 1.096 / def 1.269 | league avg home 1.351 / away 1.119 • Poisson stance: Landskrona BoIS (53%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.00
Landskrona BoIS xG
Expected Goals
1.31
Sandviken xG
63%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
64%
Over 2.5
42%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Landskrona BoIS vs Sandviken kick off?
Landskrona BoIS vs Sandviken kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 26 April 2025 at Landskrona Idrottsplats.
What was the final score in Landskrona BoIS vs Sandviken?
Landskrona BoIS 1 - 0 Sandviken.
Where is Landskrona BoIS vs Sandviken being played?
The match is being played at Landskrona Idrottsplats.
What competition is Landskrona BoIS vs Sandviken part of?
Landskrona BoIS vs Sandviken is a Regular Season - 5 fixture in the Superettan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Landskrona BoIS vs Sandviken?
Our statistical model gives Landskrona BoIS a 53% chance of winning, Sandviken a 25% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Landskrona BoIS the favourite.
Will both teams score in Landskrona BoIS vs Sandviken?
Our model estimates a 63% probability that both Landskrona BoIS and Sandviken will score (BTTS).
Will Landskrona BoIS vs Sandviken have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 64%.
What is the head-to-head record between Landskrona BoIS and Sandviken?
Record (2 meetings): Landskrona BoIS 1W | Draws 0 | Sandviken 1W.
What form are Landskrona BoIS and Sandviken in?
Landskrona BoIS (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-L-W-D-L. Sandviken (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.80 | L5 W-L-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Landskrona BoIS's attack rating (1.17) and Sandviken's defence rating (1.27), the model arrives at 2.00 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Sandviken's attack versus Landskrona BoIS's defence, projects 1.31 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 34/34 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 10.8%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.6%), 2-0 (7.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Landskrona BoIS Win
53%
1.88
22%
4.62
25%
3.99
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.6%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.6%
Home win
1 – 0
7.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.00
Landskrona BoIS xG
Total xG
3.31
1.31
Sandviken xG
1.88
53%
Home win
4.62
22%
Draw
3.99
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
64%
Over 2.5
1.56
36%
Under 2.5
2.78
42%
Over 3.5
2.38
58%
Under 3.5
1.72
24%
Over 4.5
4.17
76%
Under 4.5
1.32
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
63%
BTTS Yes
1.58
37%
BTTS No
2.72
Clean Sheet
27%
3.72
14%
7.37
Win to Nil
14%
6.98
3%
29.41
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.6 | 4.8 | 3.1 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 7.3 | 9.6 | 6.3 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.3 | 9.6 | 6.3 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.8 | 6.4 | 4.2 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 2.4 | 3.2 | 2.1 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.0 | 1.3 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Landskrona BoIS vs Sandviken?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.8%.
How many goals are Landskrona BoIS and Sandviken expected to score?
The model projects 2.00 expected goals for Landskrona BoIS and 1.31 for Sandviken, a combined total of 3.31.
How confident is the prediction model for Landskrona BoIS vs Sandviken?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 53%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Landskrona BoIS come into this having played 30 games, going 14W 7D 9L for 1.63 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-W-D-L.
On the other side, Sandviken sit at 1.43 PPG from 30 outings (12W 7D 11L), a run that reads W-L-D-L-L across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Landskrona BoIS on 1.63 PPG, Sandviken on 1.43. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Landskrona BoIS's home form reads 8W 4D 3L across 15 games on their own ground, a 1.87 PPG return.
Away from home, Sandviken have taken 0.93 points per game from 15 outings (3W 5D 7L). That's a step down from their 1.43 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Sandviken's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Landskrona BoIS come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Landskrona BoIS are averaging 1.53 goals scored and 1.13 conceded per game recently; Sandviken are on 1.63 scored and 1.37 conceded.
Last 30 Results — Superettan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Landskrona BoIS
Current Season
Sandviken
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Landskrona BoIS and Sandviken in coming into this match?
Landskrona BoIS have gone 14W 7D 9L in their last 30 games (1.63 PPG), while Sandviken have gone 12W 7D 11L in their last 30 (1.43 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Landskrona BoIS at home or Sandviken away?
Landskrona BoIS's home record (1.87 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Landskrona BoIS at home: 1.87 PPG; Sandviken away: 0.93 PPG.
Have Landskrona BoIS or Sandviken been keeping clean sheets recently?
Landskrona BoIS have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Sandviken in 27%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Landskrona BoIS and Sandviken runs to 5 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to March 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Superettan. They last met on 24 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Landskrona BoIS go into this on the back of 3 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 31 Mar 2024, when Landskrona BoIS won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Landskrona BoIS's record when hosting Sandviken specifically: 2W 0D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 5 Meetings
4
Landskrona BoIS
0
Draws
1
Sandviken
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Landskrona BoIS and Sandviken?
From 5 meetings on record, Landskrona BoIS have won 4, Sandviken have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Landskrona BoIS and Sandviken last play each other?
They last met on 24 May 2026, when Sandviken 0-1 Landskrona BoIS.
Who has won more matches between Landskrona BoIS and Sandviken?
Landskrona BoIS have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 5 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Landskrona BoIS are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 47% of the time.
Sandviken are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Landskrona BoIS 40%, Sandviken 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 47% (Landskrona BoIS) and 67% (Sandviken). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 33% and 47% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Landskrona BoIS keep a clean sheet in 47% of their matches; Landskrona BoIS have failed to score in 33% of games; Sandviken in 27%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Landskrona BoIS home games / Sandviken away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Landskrona BoIS play Sandviken?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 40% of Landskrona BoIS's recent matches and 60% of Sandviken's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Landskrona BoIS vs Sandviken usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 47% of Landskrona BoIS's matches and 67% of Sandviken's.
Do Landskrona BoIS and Sandviken tend to score early?
Landskrona BoIS have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, Sandviken in 60% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Landskrona BoIS edge out Sandviken 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Landskrona BoIS beat Sandviken 1-0 at Landskrona Idrottsplats, Regular Season - 5, in the Superettan. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Landskrona BoIS 2.00 xG and Sandviken 1.31 xG, a combined 3.31. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Landskrona BoIS fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Sandviken landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Landskrona BoIS attack 1.17 / defence 1.07 against Sandviken attack 1.10 / defence 1.27, drawn from 34/34 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Landskrona BoIS 53% | Draw 22% | Sandviken 25%, with Landskrona BoIS to win its most likely call at 53%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 64%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 84% and missed. Over 3.5 was 42% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 63% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Landskrona BoIS 53%, Sandviken 67%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Landskrona BoIS's trading profile (30 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one.
Sandviken's trading profile (30 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Landskrona BoIS 1.63 PPG, Sandviken 1.43 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Landskrona BoIS win broke the near-deadlock. Landskrona BoIS (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.07 average — tighter than their form line. Sandviken (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.27 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 1.80 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.